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Wonder Woman wrote:
YOU'RE GOIN' TO MAKE IT TEKNO.I HAVE THE FAITH IN YOU!
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miss your pm's WW!

tekno

xoxo
 
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Yeap....you make too much....

I started 20 years ago.....came in CSRS was transfered into FERS.....noticed right away the govt was trying their first attempts to reduce costs.....I'm a specialized engineer......now I make the same or just a little less than a regular GS employee....nothing special about us.....guess contractors who can't get it right wins....we constantly are going behind contractors and fixing the mess they started....

I'm afraid if you don't make your investments count in your FERS, you are hopeless for retirement and working forever....

:dude:
 
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Working forever isn't even an option for us LEO's, FireFighters and another group I can't remember. So, for those in these categories with mandatory age 57 retirement, we can't even project out as far as the rest. Early retirement could equal early poverty unless we can really push our TSP accounts. When I signed on in 94, the FERS literature used 7% growth as a benchmark. If that's all one could average until age 62 or more, it would be barely enough, and even less than that the lower the GS (or equivilent) level.

The accomodations for mandatory early retirement don't offset the shortage of earnings years we will miss. I will likely have to work 5-7 years after Fed service, either in another Fed agency, or a state or civilian job. Don't mind that so much, but CSRS sure would have been attractive.

However, if I can beat an average of 11% return a year, I will end up in FAT City, which will be much better than CSRS. However, I don't beleive that when FERS was set up, it was intended to produce anywhere near those kind of returns.
 
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The retirement works. Talk to people in the office. It also helps to have a good high three. The AUO also gives a big boost, (should you earn AUO). Have no worries you can do it. (Yes, you can even go elsewhere in the Gov and work. Even in your own agency. (I would not, I would think about working for the locals, or the state and get another retirement going.) Yes, TSP is a big deal and you should be in it. You should also have a seperate ROTH going.

WOW- Did I ever miss the target when I got out?! I wanted to see a day up and then a big hit. Did not work out that way though. I did luck out though. (No skill, just some luck.) It may have went up. However, the Lord blessed me and I had the large gain then got out and avoided the large fall that came 1st. Oil is a worry. I will sit out. When I see my betters getting out I knowI should be out.
 
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SkyPilot wrote:
Working forever isn't even an option for us LEO's, FireFighters and another group I can't remember. So, for those in these categories with mandatory age 57 retirement, we can't even project out as far as the rest.
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Mandatory age 57 retirement also hurts you in social security payments... considering that you would not get them for at least 5 years, and that would be at a reduced payment level.

Everyone's best bet is to max out both TSP and Roth contributions if they can. A 7% annual return on those combined assets would *probably* be enough to tide you over until social security kicks in (you could then take smaller distributions at that point).

The 1% of high three annuity also helps. For anyone within ten years of retirement, it'd be a good idea to meet with a financial planner and see where you stand and what your expectations are. Retirement spending could differ greatly from your current spending - or, it might not. Some people like to travel more when retired, which nullifies the "80% of working income" rule.

Re: the market - Tom, do you believe today's action is a sign of a renewed pullback, or would you say it's just a continuation of the trading range? We're back within spitting distance of the 1190 support... :shock:
 
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Mike wrote:
SkyPilot wrote:
Working forever isn't even an option for us LEO's, FireFighters and another group I can't remember. So, for those in these categories with mandatory age 57 retirement, we can't even project out as far as the rest.
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Mandatory age 57 retirement also hurts you in social security payments... considering that you would not get them for at least 5 years, and that would be at a reduced payment level.
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fwiw:

age 56 is max for controllers....min retirement = 25 years of service any age or 20 years at age 50.

http://www.bls.gov/oco/ocos108.htm

http://www.faa.gov/ahr/policy/hrpm/emp/emp_ref/atcman.cfm

ss payments can be collected right away (note: rate is reduced) if they have 40 quarters...ie: fersfolks.

weneed this since we do not live as long as most of you fed employees:s:shock::s

*rotating shift work, stress,vfr pilots, two ex-wives, ding-a-ling management, crummy equip.,smoking, drinking, and trading tsp $ takes it outta ya...LOL:P

tekno

* i hope this is a st dip mike...oil should drop unless dennis (the hurricane..not birchtree) tears up the rigs in the gulf;)
 
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[align=left][font=arial,helvetica,verdana]I'm currently at the optimism point on the chart.[/font]
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[align=left][font=arial,helvetica,verdana]What's the more exact cause of this underperformance? In a word, it is EMOTION – as illustrated in this char of the classic cycle of investor sentiment: [/font]
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[align=left][font=arial,helvetica,verdana]Figure One: Cycling Investor Sentiment [/font]
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[align=center]
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[align=left]Mike Wrote:
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We're back within spitting distance of the 1190 support... :shock:
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If oil heads to 65 the 1190 support could break down.... Dennis the menace and jobs report shouldadd plenty of emotion to the rest of the week..... ( See chart above)[/align]
CRUDE OIL FUTR
61.470
0.190
00.31
22:09
 
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Mike wrote:
Everyone's best bet is to max out both TSP and Roth contributions if they can. A 7% annual return on those combined assets would *probably* be enough to tide you over until social security kicks in (you could then take smaller distributions at that point).
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Mike, do you think you and I will ever see SS???:P
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Re: the market - Tom, do you believe today's action is a sign of a renewed pullback, or would you say it's just a continuation of the trading range? We're back within spitting distance of the 1190 support... :shock:
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Just by looking at that chart Tom has been showing us, I really think that it is going to go down further.
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Well, the 1190 support has been holding firm for weeks, after I expected a breakdown - so I'm really watching things closely now. I'm standing pat on my willingness to move some into equities after a drop to 1175 or thereabouts... and not budging from the G fund until that time arrives (with oil over $60, that time shouldn't be far away :shock:).

The payroll report comes out Friday, and that could certainly trigger a sell off if it's bad (which would be good for the long term due to that contrary performance data that Tom has posted before).

Pyriel - even with the financial degeneration of the social security system combined with Congress' willingness to spend the surplus and replace it with gov't bonds, I think we'll still get something from it - though it probably won't be as much as current retirees enjoy, and we'll probably take another payroll tax hit in the future as things deteriorate.

Even without that system, I think I can get by on my TSP/Roth/high three annuity. 15%+4% match x 40 years + max Roth contribution x 40 years + high three annuity = not a bad retirement (if I make it to that point :P).
 
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Mike wrote:
Re: the market - Tom, do you believe today's action is a sign of a renewed pullback, or would you say it's just a continuation of the trading range? We're back within spitting distance of the 1190 support... :shock:
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I'm expecting another push down, ala 1994. The ping pong game might continue but the problem with trying to get in at 1190 is if we are wrong. We saw a couple of weeks agowhat kind of damage can be done in just a day or two if we don't stay in that tradingrange.:shock:

I'd hate to have come this far in the G fund, then lose money on another push down. I'm staying conservative for now.
 
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Are you awaiting the same entry point (~1175), or are you more conservative and waiting for a break all the way into the 1150's?

If I see 1170s on the S&P, I'm leaning strongly toward a fractional move (probably 50%) back into stocks.
 
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Mike wrote:
Are you awaiting the same entry point (~1175), or are you more conservative and waiting for a break all the way into the 1150's?

If I see 1170s on the S&P, I'm leaning strongly toward a fractional move (probably 50%) back into stocks.
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Damn Mike, I was thinking 100 stox for me on 1175. Looks like you are going to wait for 1150 (that would be nice though...)
 
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Just hedging my bets. If it bounces back up after the 1170s, I'd just have to wait for another weak day to move the remainder back in. If it falls past that, I would move the other half in after it falls below 1160. I think that even with very high oil prices, the economic data is "good enough" to keep us above the 2005 low (1130s).
 
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Mike wrote:
If I see 1170s on the S&P, I'm leaning strongly toward a fractional move (probably 50%) back into stocks.
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It will sure be tempting to start inching in at that point. But you know that I'm always early so just wait for two weeks afterI get in. :D
 
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tsptalk wrote:
Mike wrote:
If I see 1170s on the S&P, I'm leaning strongly toward a fractional move (probably 50%) back into stocks.
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It will sure be tempting to start inching in at that point. But you know that I'm always early so just wait for two weeks afterI get in. :D
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Tom, Wait a minute... If you are adjusting then I better jump in with you...:D If I wait a couple more weeks, I'll lose the uptrend....:^
 
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Overnight the european markets bit the dust with the attack in London. Right now (as of six am est) London is down 2.55% .

Watch for jumpers today.

I am moving everything out of stocks and back into G today- just hope I can make it to the exit before the crash.
 
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