Market Talk

[The_Technician]

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Yeah, I guess I'm having one of those days.....ohhhhhhh geesssshhhhh......I wonder why I can't get the plots to paste or get attachments to attach properly.....

Doesn't make sense......

:dude:

 

[Guest]

imported post

The Technician wrote:

Yeah, I guess I'm having one of those days.....ohhhhhhh geesssshhhhh......I wonder why I can't get the plots to paste or get attachments to attach properly..... Doesn't make sense...... :dude:

Tom has never fixed the attachment problem. No, attachments work on the board since Tom upgraded. I'll PM him as a reminder.

 

[The_Technician]

imported post

Ok, check this out.......

Crude oil stocks fell a sharp and surprising 3.0 million barrels in the June 3 week to 330.8 million. Talk in the market centered on a small increase.

Gasoline stocks were expected to rise sharply, but didn't -- slipping 0.1 million barrels instead to 216.6 million barrels. This at the same time that refinery capacity jumped sharply to 94.9% from 94.2% the prior week.

But distillate stocks did rise, up 1.3 million to 107.7 million barrels. Diesel fuel accounted for all of the gain.

Today's data are likely to drive up oil prices, which is threatening to once become a big factor in the growth and inflation outlooks.


class=econo-sectiontitleTrends

class=econo-chartcaptionAs is evident from the chart, crude oil stocks can fluctuate dramatically over the year. When oil prices nearly reached $50 per barrel in August 2004, financial market players began to monitor crude oil inventories. It is not surprising to see sharp price hikes in crude oil when inventories are falling. Conversely, one would expect price declines when inventories are rising.
Guess some plots work.....

:^

 

[The_Technician]

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Wholesale data was released yesterday.....

Wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in April but were outpaced by a 1.5% rise in wholesale sales, pushing the inventory/sales ratio down to 1.18 vs. 1.19 in March. If manufacturing growth is indeed sputtering, low inventories will help limit damage to production and payrolls.

Good news came from petroleum products, where the inventory/sales ratio rose to 0.29, the highest in nearly three years for this category and up from 0.28 in March.

On the other side, the inventory/sales ratio for automotive goods rose sharply, to 1.41 vs. 1.36 in March. With GM and Ford cutting production, auto inventories are a big topic right now.

Factory inventories, already reported with factory orders data at the beginning of the month, rose 0.1%. Inventory data from the retail sector will be reported with business inventories next week.

:dude:

 

[The_Technician]

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10 year note today.....here's the 5 yrfrom Wed......






5-Year Note Auction

class=econo-sectiontitleDefinition
Treasury notes are sold at regularly scheduled public auctions. The competitive bids at these auctions determine the interest rate paid on each Treasury note issue. More than 20 primary dealers, securities dealers who are authorized and obligated to submit competitive tenders at Treasury auctions bid at auction. Dealers can hold, resell, or trade the securities with other firms. The 5-year note has been auctioned four times a year for the past several years, but in 2003, the Treasury will offer the 5-year note for auction eight times during the year









Yield Awarded


3.705 %




class=econo-sectiontitleHighlights
Demand was strong for this month's five-year note auction, producing a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.60 vs. 2.47 in the May auction.

Bidding from non-dealers was very strong with 49.9% of accepted competitive bids going to indirect bidders. Direct awards to non-dealers, which in some recent auctions have been unusually high, were in line at only 0.6%.

Treasuries jumped following the results, which point to continued demand for U.S. debt -- a plus for all financial markets.


class=econo-sectiontitleTrends

class=econo-chartcaptionThis chart reflects the monthly average yields for 5-year notes in the secondary market. These could be at slight odds with the auction averages in the primary market.

 

[The_Technician]

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Mortgage rates are moving.....



Low mortgage rates are driving loan applications higher, according to the Mortgage Bankers' purchase index which rose 3.6% to 479.3 in the June 3 week. The refinancing index rose more sharply, up 10.3% to 2,362.1.

The gains reflect the memorable decline in long rates still underway. Thirty-year fixed mortgages averaged 5.55%, down 6 basis points in the week.

The data confirm ongoing strength in the housing market, arguably the economy's key source of strength



Wonder how long that will last.....:^

 

[The_Technician]

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This is the present Jobless claim from 6/9/05.....trend is low......expecting to stay that a way.....



[align=left]
class=econo-sectiontitleDefinition
New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility.






Released on 6/9/05 For wk 6/4 2005













New Claims, Level

Actual
330K

Consensus
335K

Consensus Range
325K to 350K


class=econo-sectiontitleHighlights
First-time jobless claims fell sharply in the June 4 week, dropping 21,000 to a slightly better-than-expected level of 330,000 and just about reversing the prior week's swing.

The Labor Department warned the data may have been skewed by seasonal factors related to the Memorial Day weekend. The prior week's data were skewed in the opposite direction by temporary layoffs in the auto industry.

Sharp swings in week-to-week levels are common, making the four-week average the more meaningful reading. The average in fact confirms the improvement, at 331,750 and down 2,750 in the week.

Nevertheless, levels of initial claims remain historically higher than during prior recovery cycles. Despite solid economic growth, employers continue to lay off workers at a steady rate.

Bonds dipped in initial reaction to the data but only slightly. The latest claims dip aside, the outlook for job growth remains modest at best. [/align]

Market Consensus Before Announcement
New jobless claims jumped 25,000 in the week ended May 28 to 350,000. The four-week moving average increased marginally to 334,500 for the week. May's average claim level was up 3.9 percent from April. That is not surprising in light of the sluggish payroll gain for the month.

Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 6/4/05: 335,000 (2,000)
Range: 325,000 to 350,000


class=econo-sectiontitleTrends

class=econo-chartcaptionWeekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend.

 

[Mike]

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According to Sky news: 1000 injured, 45 dead, 150 serious injuries...

In the very short term, oil prices may actually fall due to fears of how much this attack will damage consumer sentiment / slow economic activity.

 

[The_Technician]

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10 year note is arising.....



Demand was mixed for the Treasury's 10-year note reopening. The high yield on the $8 billion auction was 3.990%, a full basis point above the when-issued yield at the bidding deadline. Demand from non-dealers was weak, as indirect bidders accounted for only 10.9% of accepted competitive bids. But the bid-to-cover was firm, at 2.50 vs. a long-term average of 2.17. The bond market sagged slightly following the results.


class=econo-sectiontitleTrends

class=econo-chartcaptionThis chart reflects the monthly average yields for 10-year notes in the secondary market. These could be at slight odds with the auction averages in the primary

 

[The_Technician]

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[align=left]Looks like import/export prices are dropping.....sign of a dull economy on the horizon??? I wonder what the Yuan rate will do to the import prices...[/align]


[align=left]Actual
-1.3%

Consensus
-0.3%

Consensus Range
-0.6% to 0.8%









Export Prices, M/M change

Actual
-0.1%

Consensus
N/A


class=econo-sectiontitleHighlights
Import prices fell back in May, down 1.3% to end a string of sharp increases but reflecting what could be a temporary decline in the price of oil. Prices of imported petroleum fell 6.5%.

But import prices excluding petroleum -- a closely watched measure for indications of import price inflation -- also fell, down 0.3%.

Year-on-year import prices excluding petroleum are up 2.5%, a manageable rate that shouldn't raise too much concern at the Federal Reserve. Note yesterday that Alan Greenspan referred to modest pressure on import prices as a positive for the economic outlook.

Export prices also fell in May, down 0.1%. Non-agriculture export prices fell 0.4% while agriculture prices rose 2.0%.

These data don't move markets but, together with this morning's trade report, are a positive for the economic outlook. [/align]

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Import prices increased 0.8 percent in April, much less than in March. Non-oil import prices increased 0.4 percent during the month, posting the largest gain since last December. Crude oil prices moderated in May and this could help dampen the import price index for the month.

Import prices Consensus Forecast for May 05: -0.3 percent
Range: -0.6 to 0.8 percent


class=econo-sectiontitleTrends

class=econo-chartcaptionYearly changes in import and export prices reveal long term trends in inflation for tradable goods.

 

[The_Technician]

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Mornings action is moderately low so far.....exceeded the low for the past 25 days.....

if it gets below 1180, I'd expect a further drop to 1150's a possiblity.....

:^

 

[Mike]

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I *think* the technical support is around 1175, and after that, it's in the 1150s. We're seeing red, but it's not quite as bad as I thought it would be - at least not yet.

 

[The_Technician]

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Took a look at the C/S funds performance over the last week or so.....since they seem to be high, I would be looking for several days to pass by before its attractable to get in......I have dates that say 7/9 for a signal date.....could be.... getting in for Monday may be possible....I have some other low target numbers at 1185 on the S&P......good for a week or so....but they could be exceeded if things go down....

I can't say if a few percent is worth the current market risks....it would be better if things were more predictable...instead we don't know how the market will react towards recent events...

:dude:

 

[vectorman]

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Tough call, how the markets will continue to act for the next few days. I reviewed the charts for many different markets throughout the world for the period right after the Mar 11,2004, Spain bombing. All continued down forseveral days after the bombing, butthen corrected and eventually made back most (but in some markets not all) of the losses. Even the markets in the U.S. kept going down for a while before correcting back up, but did not get to its previous high until Nov. During that period of time, it looks like the U.S. markets had justhad a great run that started in Aug of 03, so there was probably a rush to take some profits. We have just had a good run on small caps, and at some point someone is going to pull the trigger and try to lock in some profits. Thequestion is whether this will be just a knee jerk reaction or something more. The uncertainty ofmarket reaction ( or recovery) and whether any more attacks are planned in the short termmay be a market killer, but this now the world we live in andwe are going to see this again. As some would say, capital preservation is key.

http://www.allstocks.com/markets/World_Charts/European_Stock_Markets/european_stock_markets.html

 

[The_Technician]

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Noticed that oil had hit over $62.....then dropped to 57+ ....

G/F funds sure are looking attractable considering all the risks related to the markets....

Unemployment claims are up....mostly auto and educational unemployment....

:dude:

 

[learning]

imported post

First, England, (London) is in most of our thoughts and prayers, I believe. They are in mine. They have been great friends to us and this is part of the reason they were hit.

Now, for the money part of the game. Wow, look at the rebound. The market did not take long to start the up track. It is not in the green yet. If it had gone down a few days perhaps we could have taken advantage of the sell off. People over react with stocks when these attacks happen. Perhaps, they learn not to panic near as much.

 

[James48843]

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Absolutely incredible.

Now the "S" fund actually hit green!

And tomorrow I'm going to find myself at 100% G-fund, with nowhere to go.

All I can say is.....

AAAARRRRGGGHHHHH!

(But at least I am preserving capital !)

 

[The_Technician]

imported post

The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee kept its policy interest rate at 4.75 percent for the eleventh consecutive month after raising interest rates five times in the 10 months through August of last year. It follows a continued weakening in data from the manufacturing and retail sectors in recent weeks. The Bank was meeting as the terrorist attacks took place in London this morning. The central bank followed its normal practice of making no statement accompanying the decision to leave rates unchanged. Rather, Bank of England watchers will have to wait until the minutes of the meeting are released on July 20. The decision came against the background of a slowdown in the economy, which has prompted speculation that it's only a matter of time before the central bank acts to ease the cost of borrowing. The Bank of England 4.75 percent rate compares with the Fed's 3.25 percent and the European Central Bank's 2 percent.


class=econo-sectiontitleTrends

class=econo-chartcaptionThe Bank of England's primary goal is to contain inflation and it uses an inflation target to do so. Beginning with the January 2004 meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee is using the harmonized index of consumer prices for its inflation indicator, which is called the CPI. Its new inflation target is 2 percent. Previously, the MPC used the retail price index excluding mortgage interest payments as its inflation indicator and a 2.5 percent inflation target. There has been a substantial spread between the two measures of inflation which can be traced to the way they are calculated. Among the key differences is the exclusion of council taxes and owner-occupied housing costs from the CPI. Arithmetic means are used to combine individual prices to construct the RPIX while geometric means that allow for substitution are used in calculation of the CPI. This formula differential accounts for nearly half of the difference in the two rates.

 

[The_Technician]

imported post

As expected, the European Central Bank Governing Council left its key interest rate unchanged. The ECB has maintained the 2 percent rate since June 2003. The lack of action comes after the heightened pressure on the ECB from political leaders. Although inflation is at the Bank's target of 2 percent, M3 money supply growth remains far above the 4.5 percent growth target at 6.9 percent for the most recent three months. Recent economic data indicate that the EMU economy continues to slow with unemployment climbing, manufacturing sinking and retail sales lethargic. One of the only things boosting spirits in the EMU is the rapid decline of the euro since the rejection of the constitution by France and the Netherlands. Below is an excerpt from President Jean Claude Trichet's opening statement at his press conference after the meeting's conclusion.

"On the basis of our regular economic and monetary analyses, we have concluded that the monetary policy stance is appropriate, given the current outlook for price stability over the medium term. Accordingly, we have decided to leave the key ECB interest rates unchanged. Across the maturity spectrum, interest rates in the euro area are low by historical standards, in both nominal and real terms, and thus lend ongoing support to economic activity. The Governing Council will continue to monitor carefully all factors that might affect this assessment and remains vigilant with respect to the emergence of risks to price stability over the medium term."


class=econo-sectiontitleTrends

class=econo-chartcaptionThe ECB monitors two "pillars" of monetary policy - the harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) and M3 money supply - in its objective to control inflation. The ceiling for HICP growth is 2 percent. M3 growth is targeted at a 4.5 percent growth rate. The Bank has had trouble controlling both and continues to tread a fine line while ignoring sub-par economic growth in favor of forcing inflation below its ceiling. May HICP was 2 percent. Money supply growth was 6.9 percent for the three months ending in May when compared with the same three months a year earlier. The ECB has maintained an official interest rate of 2.0 percent since June 5, 2003.


Looks like Europe is stuck in the mud.....:^

 

[The_Technician]

imported post

Released on 7/7/05 For wk 7/1 2005













Crude oil inventories (weekly change)

Actual
-3.6M barrels



Crude oil stocks fell 3.6 million barrels to 324.9 million in the July 1 week. Despite the decline, stocks remain well above average. Distillate fuel stocks, which are closely watched on concern over winter home-fuel shortages, jumped 4.0 million barrels and are now also above average.

For the oil market, the rise in distillates may help to ease any impact over the fall in crude stocks. But reaction in any case will be limited given the explosions in London and the sudden risk of global economic softening.


class=econo-sectiontitleTrends

class=econo-chartcaptionAs is evident from the chart, crude oil stocks can fluctuate dramatically over the year. When oil prices nearly reached $50 per barrel in August 2004, financial market players began to monitor crude oil inventories. It is not surprising to see sharp price hikes in crude oil when inventories are falling. Conversely, one would expect price declines when inventories are rising.