Market Talk / Nov. 5 - Nov. 11

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Sunday-Weekly
Early Edition
November 5, 2006 ​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Mood shift, Oil stocks looking good.

Con-Yak...................................Lotta cracks showing!

Jester-Yak................................Told ya not to tease the bears!

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1364.30, dn -13.04 for the week!
Stops [$SPX]............................Alert (-1%): 1376 (broken). Trail (-2%): 1363.
Trend (MACD-Hist).....................decreasing at -3.846.
Overbought/Sold (S-STO)...........[80] 29.51 [20] decreasing

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................59.14, dn -1.61 for the week.
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles..............................Red.

Tin Box:
TSP:........................................Safe; capital preservation.

TSP (week ending)......G=11.63..F=11.03..C=15.04..S=17.88..I=20.89
....(1 week past)........G=11.62..F=11.04..C=15.18..S=18.08..I=21.01
....(2 week past)........G=11.60..F=10.97..C=15.08..S=17.90..I=20.73
....(3 week past)........G=11.59..F=10.94..C=15.04..S=17.93..I=20.44
....(4 week past)........G=11.58..F=10.98..C=14.86..S=17.48..I=20.28

Le Chart​

Chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com
[annotations added]​

 

[ckb21401]

I am not sure the best forum to post this in I but wanted it to be seen by lots of people.

Friday Nov 3 was payday for me and usually the TSP buys shares either Thursday night before or Friday night of payday. But not this time. Did anybody else (who got paid yesterday) note whether their TSP money was used to buy shares yet?

Craig

 

[CountryBoy]

"Pressure on U.S. stocks expected to continue"

A Market Watch article from Sharebuilders.

""The market is still going to be choppy and on a downward note regardless of what the outcome is," said Barry Hyman, equity market strategist at EKN Financial Services. Success by the Republicans may lead to an upside pop in stocks in the middle of the week but "within a day or two that would be reversed," said Hyman.

The calendar of economic data will be light, with figures due on consumer credit and sentiment, trade, import prices and wholesale inventories. Most of the reports are slated for release on Thursday.

Hyman said stocks are likely to struggle as traders go back to worrying that the economy is heading for a recession after softer data this week. Last Friday's weaker-than-expected gross domestic product number set the tone for a weak performance on Wall Street, with the major indexes all losing ground."

https://www.sharebuilder.com/sharebuilder/Research/News.aspx?GUID={CD094036-129E-49CF-BE8F-B800AD3AD24E}&Source=TopStories

CB

 

[TiCKed]

I am not sure the best forum to post this in I but wanted it to be seen by lots of people.

Friday Nov 3 was payday for me and usually the TSP buys shares either Thursday night before or Friday night of payday. But not this time. Did anybody else (who got paid yesterday) note whether their TSP money was used to buy shares yet?

Craig

Noticed the same here....

But I don't think mine has been all that predictable since about mid-year. Was Thursday like clockwork for awhile, then got more flexible...Sometimes Thursday, sometimes Friday.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

I am not sure the best forum to post this in I but wanted it to be seen by lots of people.

Friday Nov 3 was payday for me and usually the TSP buys shares either Thursday night before or Friday night of payday. But not this time. Did anybody else (who got paid yesterday) note whether their TSP money was used to buy shares yet?

Craig

official payday (pay date) for me is tuesday (next week), money was in the bank/TSP this friday morning, business as usual.

 

[robo]

Sunday, November 05, 2006

Employment Numbers Change Everything
John Maynard Keynes, the famous British economist, said it best:


"When the situation changes, I change. What do you do?"
Every investor should keep that saying close to heart because it will come in handy. On Friday, the US Labor Dept dropped a huge surprise on the markets with the release of the monthly Employment Report. Surprises are getting to be regular occurences with the Employment Report, which has been showing disappointing job gains which are revised sharply higher in succeeding months. Last month, the report shocked traders by adding 800,000 more new jobs to the tally for the last year. This month, Labor added new jobs they had somehow missed to the initial totals for prior months. Although the October number was far below estimates, the added jobs in August and September showed the economy was likely expanding much faster than the markets had reckoned.

The bond market had been pricing in a recession next year. If the new figures are correct, not only is no recession on the horizon, the economy is continuing to grow faster than its potential, which will lead the Federal Reserve to continue hiking short term rates. Bonds dropped sharply, losing almost all of the gains they had made in the last two weeks. This amounted to thousands of dollars per bond and was a very big move (we warned subscribers ahead of time about the oft-volatile movement in bonds after the Employment Report is released). Interest rates soared and stock prices gyrated up, then down, then up again, in a very confused marketplace.

Most of the recent set of reports on the economy had been pointing squarely at a "hard landing" for the US economy next year. "Hard landing" is just the latest in a long list of euphemisms Wall Street uses for what previously had been called a "recession", which itself was a euphemism for the older term, "depression". Remember, these are the folks that tell you to "hold" your stock when they really mean, "Sell! Sell! Sell!" Clearly, both the stock and bond markets have been wrong about the economy and the direction of interest rates. This game-changing report probably didn't fully sink in on Friday, but will be reflected in some very volatile re-pricing this coming week.

This is exactly why investors should always be alert to J.M. Keynes' advice: situations do change and when they do, so should you.

http://marketclues.blogspot.com/

 

[robo]

I always enjoy Mark's interviews with Ike.


MarketViews.tv is the media division of Aegean Capital Group, Inc., a research and asset management company. Its flagship program "Market Views with Ike Iossif and friends" and its host, Ike Iossif, critically examines the technical, fundamental, and quantitative underpinnings of the financial markets by interviewing some of the best known, most respected analysts, newsletter writers, market timers, market strategists, and portfolio managers on Wall Street.

The MarketViews.tv - Sentiment Channel focuses only on the study of sentiment both from the public's point of view, and from the professionals' point of view. It features the MarketViews.tv Guest Consensus, and three of the best known experts in the field such as Mr. Michael Burke founder of the Investors' Intelligence Survey, Mr. Jason Goepfert founder of Sentimentrader.com, and Mr. Mark Young, President of Equity Guardian LLC.


http://www.streetiq.com/dir/MVTVSENT.shtml#

Today "No major reasons for concern over the equity markets" Interview with Mr. Mark Young, President of Equity Guardian LLC. Please visit this link: "http://www.equityguardiangroup.com/mv.htm" to view the charts discussed in this interview. A presentation of Marketviews.tv

 

[robo]

It's All In How You Play The Game
November 5, 2006

There is an old saying, "It's not whether you win or lose but how you play the game." Few realize just how relevant that saying is, to achieving profitability in the financial markets.

The Only True Measure Of Success Is Long Term Profits

Typically, those new to stock market timing work under the assumption that winning is all that matters. Obviously winning is important, but being profitable is more important. And it is a goal that the majority of traders fail to realize.



http://timing.typepad.com/timer/2006/11/its_all_in_how_.html

 

[wht00ss]

If useful i will update buy signals for the c fund

Currently 100% G

Weekend Analysis

(11/4/06)

The major averages have begun to pull back some and there are a few things to watch in the near term to see if this will only be a minor pullback or turn into something more substantial.

The Dow has pulled back to its 20 Day EMA (blue line) which also coincides with its upward sloping trend line from the mid July low. One of two scenarios may develop over the next week or two. The first scenario would be for the Dow to hold support at its upward sloping trend line (solid black line) and then begin to rally again like we have seen the past three months. Meanwhile the second scenario would be for the Dow to break below its upward sloping trend line which would likely lead to a drop back to its 50 Day EMA (green line) near 11775.



The Nasdaq which ran into strong resistance at its prior April high around 2375 (points A) has now dropped back below its 20 Day EMA (blue line) and also penetrated its upward sloping trend line (solid black line). In addition this is the first time since mid August the Nasdaq has closed below its 20 Day EMA. If the Nasdaq fails to rally next week and continues lower its next level of support would be at its 50 Day EMA (green line) near 2280.



As for the S&P 500 it has also dropped back to its 20 Day EMA (blue line) and is very close to its upward sloping trend line (solid black line) as well. Just like the Dow there are two possible scenarios for the S&P 500 over the next week or two. The first scenario would be for the S&P 500 to hold support near the 1360 level and then begin to rally again which would keep its upward sloping trend line from the mid July low intact. Meanwhile the second scenario would be for the S&P 500 to break below the 1360 level which would likely lead to a drop back to its 50 Day EMA (green line) near 1343.



Meanwhile a few sectors to watch which could affect the market in the coming weeks include Crude Oil and the Semiconductors. The price of Crude Oil has dropped back to its longer term 38.2% Retracement Level calculated from the low in 2001 to the high made in 2006. Thus we may see an oversold rally develop in the price of Crude Oil in the coming weeks. As I have mentioned before there has been an inverse relationship between the price of Crude Oil and the Dow in the past. If the price of Crude Oil begins to rally strongly off of its 38.2% Retracement Level this could lead to some additional selling pressure in the Dow.



The second sector to watch is the Semiconductors as the Semiconductor Index (SOX) is still exhibiting a potential bearish looking Head and Shoulders Top pattern. The SOX currently has a key support level just above the 440 area (point B) and if it breaks solidly below the 440 area then look for an eventual drop back to the 385 level which corresponds to its Neckline. Furthermore if the SOX were to drop back to its Neckline then that would have an adverse affect on the Nasdaq as well. Meanwhile in order for the SOX to avoid it's potentially bearish looking Head and Shoulders Top pattern it will need to hold support above the 440 area and eventually rally above its 2nd Shoulder near the 475 level.

Based on what I'm seeing I think it would be more constructive for the major averages if they continued to consolidate over the next few weeks while holding support near there trend lines, as talked about above, instead of attempting to make another move higher. This would allow for more stocks which have formed a Cup or Double Bottom pattern to develop a proper Handle before attempting to breakout.


401K/TSP Timing Signals
(Updated 11/3/06)

This page gives all of the Daily Buy and Sell Signals using our Market Timing System which focuses on the SPY's which track the S&P 500. For those that are government employees and use the Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) these signals pertain to the C Fund. We advise that when there isn't a Buy Signal to have your money in the G Fund for people who are using the TSP.

Here is a simple example on how to use our system. The first Buy Signal in 2006 was on 1/20/06. The changes should be made to your 401K/TSP Account the next day so that it goes in affect after the market closes. In this example the entry price you would have got in the SPY's would have been the closing price on 1/21/06 which was $126.42. Meanwhile once the Sell Signal Date occurs positions should be switched before the close of the next day, which in this case, would have been on 1/26/06 with a closing price of $128.54 for a gain of 1.68%. "Remember if you are using the TSP positions must be made by 12 PM Eastern Time for the change to go in affect the next day."

Daily Analysis

We could see a minor bounce develop in the major averages next week however our current Buy Signals remain on the weak side. This I think the best thing to do is remain cautious and stay on the sidelines for now.

Currently there is no Buy Signal for 11/6/06



The Primary Buy and Sell Signals are based on being fully invested in a Fund that tracks the S&P 500. For Government Employees the C Fund tracks the S&P 500.

 

[Birchtree]

That sure is a lot of bunny hopping. Requires too much energy for my taste.

 

[wht00ss]

401K/TSP Timing Signals
(Updated 11/3/06)
This page gives all of the Daily Buy and Sell Signals using our Market Timing System which focuses on the SPY's which track the S&P 500. For those that are government employees and use the Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) these signals pertain to the C Fund. We advise that when there isn't a Buy Signal to have your money in the G Fund for people who are using the TSP.
Here is a simple example on how to use our system. The first Buy Signal in 2006 was on 1/20/06. The changes should be made to your 401K/TSP Account the next day so that it goes in affect after the market closes. In this example the entry price you would have got in the SPY's would have been the closing price on 1/21/06 which was $126.42. Meanwhile once the Sell Signal Date occurs positions should be switched before the close of the next day, which in this case, would have been on 1/26/06 with a closing price of $128.54 for a gain of 1.68%. "Remember if you are using the TSP positions must be made by 12 PM Eastern Time for the change to go in affect the next day."
Daily Analysis
We could see a minor bounce develop in the major averages next week however our current Buy Signals remain on the weak side. This I think the best thing to do is remain cautious and stay on the sidelines for now.

Currently there is no Buy Signal for 11/6/06 ​

Primary Buy and Sell Signals for 2006 C fund using SPY etf

Buy Signal date
Buy price
Sell price
Sell Signal date​

1/20/06
126.42
128.54
1/26/06​

2/2/06
126.27
129.16
2/15/06​

2/28/06
129.37
128.24
3/2/06​

3/8/06
127.38
128.83
3/13/06​

3/28/06
130.03
130.87
4/5/06​

4/10/06
128.64
130.95
4/18/06​

5/2/06
130.89
132.36
5/5/06​

5/23/06
126.17
128.38
5/25/06​

5/30/06
127.51
129.00
6/1/06​

6/12/06
122.55
126.06
6/15/06​

6/27/06
124.75
127.23
6/29/06​

7/13/06
123.52
124.83
7/19/06​

8/10/06
127.01
128.59
8/14/06​

8/15/06
129.71
130.58
8/28/06​

9/6/06
129.92
132.17
9/12/06​

10/3/06
134.92
136.63
10/12/06​

 

[VirginiaBob]

keep it up, where do you get your info on the spy buy sell indicators?

 

[robo]

Carl Swenlin performs excellent TA work. Listen to him at the link below.


This interview with Carl Swenlin, president of DecisionPoint.com, was conducted by Ike Iossif president of AegeanCapital, Inc.

MarketViews.tv, Copyright © 2001-2006, All rights reserved. AegeanCapital Inc., is not affiliated with any of its guests, or the firms associated with them. The views expressed, are solely the views of the guests and of the firm they represent. AegeanCapital receives NO compensation of any kind from its guests, either for their appearance, or from any subscription fees that may result due to their appearance.


http://www.decisionpoint.com/interviews/061103_iossif.html

 

[James48843]

Nice article in govexec.com Tom-

http://www.govexec.com/dailyfed/1106/110206pb.htm

Let's go get em.

A good week for the market this week? All eyes are on Tuesday. What will the voters bring?

 

[weatherweenie]

06:23 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.8.

 

[Birchtree]

Excellent pin action today - even GE is on the move, finally. I think we could close up at least 150 points today. Hoofs are on the way. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

Come on Ferdinand, come to Elsie. What do you have in mind for tomorrow? Hey, don't eat those lilly pads, they are sacrosanct. Well only eat a few then. Snort.

 

[Ghageman]

It's days like today that I question why tried to start positioning with the trends vice staying long all the time. I'm trying to avoid the nasty drops like we had in the summer, but so far I've only cheated myself out of about 2-3% by moving around. I'm thinking maybe I should just stay 50% long and play with the other 50%. My TSP only makes up about 30% of our retirement funds anyway...the rest is all long amongst various mutual funds.

Just some thoughts from the lilly pad...

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

It's all about performance Ghage. Is your 'strategy' beating L2040, or 20% in each fund, or maybe TSPtalk's strategy, then figure in your time & effort.

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
November 6, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Socks rally on deals and Fed thrills!

Con-Yak...................................What happened to the pull back?

Jester-Yak................................

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1379.78, up +15.48
Stops......................................Alert: 1376 (restored). Trail: 1363
Trend (MACD-Hist)....................increasing at -2.609.
Overbought/sold (S-STO)...........[80] 40.34 [20] Poped up

Lube (NYM) Closed at.................60.02, up +0.88
Oil Markers...............................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles.............................Yellow.

Tin Box:
TSP........................................Safe; capital preservation.