Market Talk / Dec. 31 - Jan. 6

[weatherweenie]

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +8.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.2. Early indications suggest stocks will kick off the New Year on an upbeat note. Strong gains in overseas markets a day earlier, when U.S. equity markets were closed to mark the death of President Ford, combined with pent-up buying interest, positive analyst commentary, falling oil prices and seasonality factors, are contributing to the positive disposition. As a reminder, today marks the second-to-last trading day of the classic year-end Santa Claus rally which, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac, has resulted in an average return of 1.5% for the S&P 500 since 1950

 

[weatherweenie]

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +7.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.0.

 

[Fivetears]

This is what Mr Market is driving. :nuts:

Definately on a risky upward climb,
and may just pull it off.

What kind of vehicle is Mr. Market driving?​

The first half of 2006 Mr. Market was driving a gas guzzler with high taxes (rates).​

Now, he seems to have a new vehicle! Low gas and stable taxes.
Is it a hybrid?​

 

[fedgolfer]

fed minutes:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/minutes/20061212.htm

 

[weatherweenie]

fed minutes:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/minutes/20061212.htm

That's what must be causing the selloff from +109 to +38?

 

[James48843]

Ouch.


What a downturn!

 

[James48843]

went from up +0.60% brilliant green to -0.30% red in ten minutes!

Wow.

those fed minutes must have gotten some attention, eh?

 

[fedgolfer]

i think the increased volatility was expected but i'm suprised by the downward severity. The minutes don't contain much that wasn't already priced into the indicies from the Dec meeting... the POSSIBILITY of tightening was always in the cards, maybe not expressed in such a way, but you'd think most investors know the Fed likes giving itself some outs. Hopefully, an over reaction but we can never tell how the market is gonna react to the news.

 

[Birchtree]

I'm holding out for a Dow close at 12,550 before we close. Buy programs should start kicking up bull dust.

 

[TiCKed]

Ouch....I was looking forward to getting a nice start to the year! Not as good as LAST year, but better than a kick in the teeth.

What's the thought...One day setback, or the start of something big? Being an optimist, I'm thinking we digest the news, and head up tomorrow. (Maybe I'm too much of an optimist).

On the upside, I just dumped a grand into my Roth IRA which should buy in at today's prices.

 

[James48843]

Wilshare 4500 ("S") is now down -0.86% and still headed south.

What a difference an hour makes.

WHAP!

 

[fedgolfer]

And the support line holds in the S&P (for now), these things don't move in patterns though, do they?

 

[Birchtree]

I enjoy being wrong - so now I fall back on dividend reinvestments and the DCA pricing this week. There is always a silver lining. I'm ready for a pummelling.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

I enjoy being wrong - so now I fall back on dividend reinvestments and the DCA pricing this week. There is always a silver lining. I'm ready for a pummelling.

AKA "catching a falling knife"?

 

[dell]

Dennis: Have you ever held a thought for more than 15 minutes or gone 15 minutes without changing your mind? You are no more intelligent than anyone who posts here, but just like an individual who formerly post here (prior to running away after being called out), your investment skills and decisions are ALWAYS right.

At least twice a day.

Snorff.

 

[Birchtree]

Dell,

Thanks for that gracious recognition, but I'm totally not deserving. If my oceanic account makes me $500,000 this year I'll accept your warmth. If my TSP makes me $125,000 this year I'll be ready for more warmth. You take care.

Dennis - permabull #1

 

[dell]

And to you, my good friend.

Dell

 

[Birchtree]

Dell,

What's this good friend stuff - didn't you kick me to the curb? Our romance is over but civility will prevail because my respect is forever. Not all gunfights end in injury.

Dennis

 

[SkyPilot]

This is the silver lining of Buy and Hold in rising market... DCA works well, and Birch has every right to crow. However, should the market tank, and an investor is forced to get out at the bottom (retirement, etc.) that is where it will hurt.

On the other hand, if you are Buy and Hold, there is only so much you can say about the market beyond "Up is good and Down is good".

The problem is when Buy and Hold is promoted as a superior strategy to any of the other various trading approaches.

It may or may not be better depending on when you have to tap the money, and that is a matter of "timing"....

 

[clester]

I've been wondering for a while. Does anyone think we as a group can move the market. Jim Cramer said the other day that when he was a hedge fund manager he could move the market with 5 million, but nowadays it would probably take 10 million. Today I noticed a lot of the leaders moving into stocks today. If the TSP board has to have us in the fund by the closing date they would have to buy us in by the close. So if we as a group put 10 million into stocks today could that have brought the market back at the close? Just an interesting observation.