Pre-Bell 
Brief
Time: 31-Oct-2025 06:45 (ET)
Key Takeaway
• Big-tech earnings pop has U.S. futures pointing higher, but cash still has to absorb Thursday’s broad SPX/Nasdaq selloff. [1][2]
• Ongoing federal shutdown means key U.S. data can slip or publish in fragments, so traders will lean harder on private nowcasts. [3][14][15]
• TSP funds all printed 30-Oct; G-Fund glide for November still looks small but positive after exclusion rules. [7]
What Moved Overnight
• U.S. futures: SPX +0.6% pre-cash as strong AAPL and AMZN guidance calmed the megacap wobble. [2]
• Europe: opened softer after yesterday’s U.S. tech dump, with desks noting shutdown-related U.S. data uncertainty. [1][14]
• Asia: mixed to lower even after U.S.–China trade optics improved, which tells you earnings > geopolitics today. [1][15]
How the Prior Session Closed
• U.S. stocks slid as post-Fed enthusiasm faded: SPX −0.99%, IXIC −1.6%, DJI −0.2%; selling was heaviest in earnings laggards and AI-spend names. [8]
• Rates and dollar stayed firm, keeping pressure on duration trades and defensives; cash desks flagged forced de-risking into the close. [1]
• Shutdown-delayed data left traders “flying a bit blind,” so the equity move tracked earnings tapes more than macro prints. [3][14]
• Top SPX Winner: CHRW (C.H. Robinson Worldwide) +19.71% (Industrials: Air Freight & Logistics) [9]
• Bottom SPX Loser: CMG (Chipotle Mexican Grill) −18.18% (Consumer Discretionary: Restaurants) [10]
♔ Equities & ♛ Barometer
• Prior Session: SPX fell on earnings shocks while yields edged higher, VIX firmed, and DXY held near recent highs. [1][18]
• WTD: Risk tone still net-positive thanks to earlier megacap beats, but leadership narrowed into dollar/quality winners. [1][2]
• MTD: Indexes remain up for October, yet shutdown noise and tariff chatter kept buyers selective. [14][15]
• 3-Week: Momentum improved as earnings breadth stayed decent, dollar stopped rising fast, and vol stayed contained. [1][18]
TSP Stats
G-Fund Estimated Forward Returns • +0.0115% per session [7]
• 5 Sessions: +0.058% • November: +0.22% • 3 Months: +0.73% • 1 Year: +2.95%
FCSI Past-5 Sessions
• F-Fund −0.50% • C-Fund +0.45% • S-Fund −1.96% • I-Fund −0.11% [7]
Today's 1st Hour of Trading, What to Watch For
• 10/31 FRI 08:30 — [Macro] PCE/income/spending: release timing subject to shutdown; use private trackers if no official print hits. [3][14][15]
• 10/31 FRI 10:00 — [Earnings] AMZN, AAPL call spillover: watch for options-market follow-through into tech-weighted ETFs. [2][22]
• 10/31 FRI 13:00 — [Auction] 2y FRN, 5y & 7y note settlements: size and bid-to-cover matter after Fed’s QT-end signal. [5][2]
Upcoming Headlines (5-Day Window, ET)
• 10/31 FRI 11:00 — [Macro] Chicago/regionals or private PMIs may stand in for delayed federal series. [3][15]
• 11/03 MON 11:00 — [Macro] Factory Orders (Sep) still on calendar, but Census may slip if shutdown extends. [11][13][14]
• 11/04 TUE 08:30 — [Macro] U.S. trade balance (Sep) and JOLTS: treat as tentative, markets already leaning on private labor gauges. [11][12][14]
• 11/04 TUE 09:55 — [Macro] Redbook weekly sales: extra weight while consumers face tariffs and paused federal pay. [4][5][12]
• 11/05 WED — [Fed] Fedspeak window ahead of December: use it to triangulate the second cut or a long hold. [6][15]
Off in the Distance (+5 Days Out)
• 11/07 FRI 08:30 — Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct): at risk of delay, but market will trade ADP/private series if BLS is dark. [14][16]
• 11/13 THU 09:30 — CPI (Oct): still the key inflation waypoint before December FOMC. [17]
• Mid-Nov — Treasury 10y/30y supply and refunding follow-up: duration traders will want clean demand after shutdown. [5]
• 01-Dec — Fed QT formally ends per October decision: keeps balance-sheet tone market-friendly into year-end. [15]
▶ Citation Block
[1] 31-Oct-2025: marketwatch.com: U.S. markets overview
[2] 31-Oct-2025: reuters.com: Futures rise on Apple, Amazon forecasts
[3] 31-Oct-2025: apnews.com: Shutdown delays key U.S. data
[4] 31-Oct-2025: investing.com: Economic calendar
[5] 31-Oct-2025: treasury.gov: U.S. Treasury auctions
[6] 31-Oct-2025: cmegroup.com: CME FedWatch Tool
[7] 30-Oct-2025: tsptalk.com: TSP share prices and daily changes
[8] 30-Oct-2025: investopedia.com: Markets news, Oct. 30, 2025
[9] 31-Oct-2025: finance.yahoo.com: C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW)
[10] 31-Oct-2025: finance.yahoo.com: Chipotle stock falls after guidance cut
[11] 31-Oct-2025: marketwatch.com: U.S. economic calendar
[12] 31-Oct-2025: tradingeconomics.com: United States calendar
[13] 31-Oct-2025: investing.com: U.S. Factory Orders (Sep)
[14] 30-Oct-2025: reuters.com: Federal shutdown could cost up to $14B
[15] 30-Oct-2025: kiplinger.com: This week’s economic calendar
[16] 31-Oct-2025: investing.com: U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls
[17] 31-Oct-2025: investing.com: U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY
[18] 31-Oct-2025: marketwatch.com: U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
[19] 03-Oct-2025: theguardian.com: U.S. ‘flying blind’ without jobs data
Disclaimer: Any resemblance to actual outcomes is purely coincidental.
• Powered by AI-Intela: Sometimes thinking hard, sometimes hardly thinking.
BriefTime: 31-Oct-2025 06:45 (ET)
Key Takeaway• Big-tech earnings pop has U.S. futures pointing higher, but cash still has to absorb Thursday’s broad SPX/Nasdaq selloff. [1][2]
• Ongoing federal shutdown means key U.S. data can slip or publish in fragments, so traders will lean harder on private nowcasts. [3][14][15]
• TSP funds all printed 30-Oct; G-Fund glide for November still looks small but positive after exclusion rules. [7]
What Moved Overnight• U.S. futures: SPX +0.6% pre-cash as strong AAPL and AMZN guidance calmed the megacap wobble. [2]
• Europe: opened softer after yesterday’s U.S. tech dump, with desks noting shutdown-related U.S. data uncertainty. [1][14]
• Asia: mixed to lower even after U.S.–China trade optics improved, which tells you earnings > geopolitics today. [1][15]
How the Prior Session Closed• U.S. stocks slid as post-Fed enthusiasm faded: SPX −0.99%, IXIC −1.6%, DJI −0.2%; selling was heaviest in earnings laggards and AI-spend names. [8]
• Rates and dollar stayed firm, keeping pressure on duration trades and defensives; cash desks flagged forced de-risking into the close. [1]
• Shutdown-delayed data left traders “flying a bit blind,” so the equity move tracked earnings tapes more than macro prints. [3][14]
• Top SPX Winner: CHRW (C.H. Robinson Worldwide) +19.71% (Industrials: Air Freight & Logistics) [9]
• Bottom SPX Loser: CMG (Chipotle Mexican Grill) −18.18% (Consumer Discretionary: Restaurants) [10]
♔ Equities & ♛ Barometer
• Prior Session: SPX fell on earnings shocks while yields edged higher, VIX firmed, and DXY held near recent highs. [1][18]
• WTD: Risk tone still net-positive thanks to earlier megacap beats, but leadership narrowed into dollar/quality winners. [1][2]
• MTD: Indexes remain up for October, yet shutdown noise and tariff chatter kept buyers selective. [14][15]
• 3-Week: Momentum improved as earnings breadth stayed decent, dollar stopped rising fast, and vol stayed contained. [1][18]
TSP StatsG-Fund Estimated Forward Returns • +0.0115% per session [7]
• 5 Sessions: +0.058% • November: +0.22% • 3 Months: +0.73% • 1 Year: +2.95%
FCSI Past-5 Sessions
• F-Fund −0.50% • C-Fund +0.45% • S-Fund −1.96% • I-Fund −0.11% [7]
Today's 1st Hour of Trading, What to Watch For• 10/31 FRI 08:30 — [Macro] PCE/income/spending: release timing subject to shutdown; use private trackers if no official print hits. [3][14][15]
• 10/31 FRI 10:00 — [Earnings] AMZN, AAPL call spillover: watch for options-market follow-through into tech-weighted ETFs. [2][22]
• 10/31 FRI 13:00 — [Auction] 2y FRN, 5y & 7y note settlements: size and bid-to-cover matter after Fed’s QT-end signal. [5][2]
Upcoming Headlines (5-Day Window, ET)• 10/31 FRI 11:00 — [Macro] Chicago/regionals or private PMIs may stand in for delayed federal series. [3][15]
• 11/03 MON 11:00 — [Macro] Factory Orders (Sep) still on calendar, but Census may slip if shutdown extends. [11][13][14]
• 11/04 TUE 08:30 — [Macro] U.S. trade balance (Sep) and JOLTS: treat as tentative, markets already leaning on private labor gauges. [11][12][14]
• 11/04 TUE 09:55 — [Macro] Redbook weekly sales: extra weight while consumers face tariffs and paused federal pay. [4][5][12]
• 11/05 WED — [Fed] Fedspeak window ahead of December: use it to triangulate the second cut or a long hold. [6][15]
Off in the Distance (+5 Days Out)• 11/07 FRI 08:30 — Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct): at risk of delay, but market will trade ADP/private series if BLS is dark. [14][16]
• 11/13 THU 09:30 — CPI (Oct): still the key inflation waypoint before December FOMC. [17]
• Mid-Nov — Treasury 10y/30y supply and refunding follow-up: duration traders will want clean demand after shutdown. [5]
• 01-Dec — Fed QT formally ends per October decision: keeps balance-sheet tone market-friendly into year-end. [15]
▶ Citation Block
[1] 31-Oct-2025: marketwatch.com: U.S. markets overview
[2] 31-Oct-2025: reuters.com: Futures rise on Apple, Amazon forecasts
[3] 31-Oct-2025: apnews.com: Shutdown delays key U.S. data
[4] 31-Oct-2025: investing.com: Economic calendar
[5] 31-Oct-2025: treasury.gov: U.S. Treasury auctions
[6] 31-Oct-2025: cmegroup.com: CME FedWatch Tool
[7] 30-Oct-2025: tsptalk.com: TSP share prices and daily changes
[8] 30-Oct-2025: investopedia.com: Markets news, Oct. 30, 2025
[9] 31-Oct-2025: finance.yahoo.com: C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW)
[10] 31-Oct-2025: finance.yahoo.com: Chipotle stock falls after guidance cut
[11] 31-Oct-2025: marketwatch.com: U.S. economic calendar
[12] 31-Oct-2025: tradingeconomics.com: United States calendar
[13] 31-Oct-2025: investing.com: U.S. Factory Orders (Sep)
[14] 30-Oct-2025: reuters.com: Federal shutdown could cost up to $14B
[15] 30-Oct-2025: kiplinger.com: This week’s economic calendar
[16] 31-Oct-2025: investing.com: U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls
[17] 31-Oct-2025: investing.com: U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY
[18] 31-Oct-2025: marketwatch.com: U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
[19] 03-Oct-2025: theguardian.com: U.S. ‘flying blind’ without jobs data
Disclaimer: Any resemblance to actual outcomes is purely coincidental.• Powered by AI-Intela: Sometimes thinking hard, sometimes hardly thinking.
