Pre-Bell 
Brief
Time: 30-Oct-2025 01:30 (ET)
Key Takeaway
• Fed cut 25 bps and signaled December is not locked in, so cash indexes stalled near records. [1]
• Ongoing US government shutdown is still scrambling the data calendar, so traders have to lean on private proxies. [2]
• Even so, futures markets still price ~90% odds of another 25 bp cut at the 10-Dec FOMC. [3]
What Moved Overnight
• US index futures were flat to slightly negative after Powell cooled December, 10y hovered near 4.0%, dollar stayed firm. [4]
• Asia was mixed: tech-heavy markets held gains, China lagged on growth worries and data gaps tied to the shutdown story. [5]
• Europe opened slightly lower as traders digested the Fed, watched US data delays, and marked time ahead of month-end. [6]
How the Prior Session Closed
• SPX finished essentially flat at 6,890.59 after the Fed’s second 2025 cut, and rising Treasury yields drained the intraday pop. [1]
• IXIC added +0.5% to 23,958.47 as NVDA and megacap tech ran on AI and earnings. [1]
• DJI slipped −0.2% to 47,632 after Powell said another move in December is “not guaranteed.” [1]
• Top SPX Winner: CAT (Caterpillar) +12.0% (Industrials) on AI data-center power demand and earnings surprise. [10]
• Bottom SPX Loser: FI (Fiserv) −47.0% (Financials) after weak guide and Nasdaq transfer plan. [10]
♔ Equities ♛ Barometer
• Prior Session: SPX stalled at highs as the cut landed, VIX steadied, DXY stayed firm, and financials lagged.
• WTD: Participation still favors tech and discretionary, small caps trail, and dollar firmness caps I-fund proxies.
• MTD: Drip higher after September’s pivot, rates volatility is calmer, and megacaps keep leadership.
• 3-Week: Tone improved as VIX bled lower, dollar headwind faded, and AI earnings kept a floor.
TSP Stats
G-Fund Estimated Forward Returns • +0.0115% per session [11]
• 5 Sessions: +0.058% • November: +0.22% • 3 Months: +0.73% • 1 Year: +2.95%
FCSI Past-5 Sessions
• F-Fund +0.29% • C-Fund +1.07% • S-Fund +1.63% • I-Fund +0.21%
Today's 1st Hour of Trading, What to Watch For
• 10/30 THU 08:30 — [Macro] Q3 GDP (advance) and weekly claims: GDP may be delayed by shutdown, private nowcast posts may matter more than usual. [12]
• 10/30 THU 13:00 — [Auction] 7y Treasury: watch size and tail after the Fed cut, curve tone can spill into banks and housing. [13]
• Data-gap hedging: with BLS and BEA prints at risk, watch PMI, ADP-proxy chatter, and big-bank trackers for an early read on jobs/inflation. [2]
Upcoming Headlines (5-Day Window, ET)
• 10/30 THU 08:30 — [Macro] GDP (advance), Weekly Claims — publication subject to shutdown; price action if it shows up. [14]
• 10/31 FRI 10:00 — [Macro] Chicago PMI and final PMIs: good shutdown substitute for growth tone. [15]
• 11/03 MON 10:00 — [Macro] ISM Manufacturing (Oct): key for goods slowdown and capex. [15]
• 11/04 TUE 11:30 — [Auction] 3m/6m bills and updated Treasury schedule: supply watch while Fed is easing. [13]
Off in the Distance (+5-Days Out)
• CME FedWatch: 90% odds of a 25 bp cut at the 10-Dec FOMC, 10% no change. [3]
• 11/07 FRI — October Employment Report: BLS release timing uncertain while the shutdown lasts. [2]
• 11/13 THU — October CPI (core): first clean inflation look the Fed can use if shutdown persists. [15]
• 12/10 WED — FOMC decision + Powell: market wants confirmation of the second 2025 cut. [3]
▶ Citation Block
[1] 29-Oct-2025: Reuters: Dow ends lower, S&P 500 flat as Powell cools December cut hopes
[2] 06-Oct-2025: Reuters: US government shutdown: how it affects key economic data publishing
[3] 29-Oct-2025: CME Group: FedWatch Tool — target rate probabilities
[4] 30-Oct-2025: Bloomberg: Stocks waver as traders digest Fed cut
[5] 30-Oct-2025: TradingEconomics: Global economic calendar and Asia session wrap
[6] 30-Oct-2025: MarketWatch: US economy and politics calendar
[7] 29-Oct-2025: AP News: How major US stock indexes fared Wednesday
[8] 29-Oct-2025: MarketWatch: Dow climb halted as Powell pushes back on December cut
[9] 29-Oct-2025: Investors.com: Stock Market Today after the Fed decision
[10] 29-Oct-2025: Investopedia: Top Stock Movers: Nvidia, Caterpillar, Fiserv
[11] 29-Oct-2025: TSPtalk.com: Daily TSP share prices and month-to-date returns
[12] 30-Oct-2025: FRED/St. Louis Fed: Economic Release Calendar (GDP, claims)
[13] 30-Oct-2025: New York Fed: National Economic and Auction Calendar
[14] 30-Oct-2025: TradingCharts: United States economic calendar for 30-Oct-2025
[15] 30-Oct-2025: Econoday: 2025 economic calendar (US and global)
Disclaimer: Any resemblance to actual outcomes is purely coincidental.
• Powered by AI-Intela: Sometimes thinking hard, sometimes hardly thinking.
BriefTime: 30-Oct-2025 01:30 (ET)
Key Takeaway• Fed cut 25 bps and signaled December is not locked in, so cash indexes stalled near records. [1]
• Ongoing US government shutdown is still scrambling the data calendar, so traders have to lean on private proxies. [2]
• Even so, futures markets still price ~90% odds of another 25 bp cut at the 10-Dec FOMC. [3]
What Moved Overnight• US index futures were flat to slightly negative after Powell cooled December, 10y hovered near 4.0%, dollar stayed firm. [4]
• Asia was mixed: tech-heavy markets held gains, China lagged on growth worries and data gaps tied to the shutdown story. [5]
• Europe opened slightly lower as traders digested the Fed, watched US data delays, and marked time ahead of month-end. [6]
How the Prior Session Closed• SPX finished essentially flat at 6,890.59 after the Fed’s second 2025 cut, and rising Treasury yields drained the intraday pop. [1]
• IXIC added +0.5% to 23,958.47 as NVDA and megacap tech ran on AI and earnings. [1]
• DJI slipped −0.2% to 47,632 after Powell said another move in December is “not guaranteed.” [1]
• Top SPX Winner: CAT (Caterpillar) +12.0% (Industrials) on AI data-center power demand and earnings surprise. [10]
• Bottom SPX Loser: FI (Fiserv) −47.0% (Financials) after weak guide and Nasdaq transfer plan. [10]
♔ Equities ♛ Barometer
• Prior Session: SPX stalled at highs as the cut landed, VIX steadied, DXY stayed firm, and financials lagged.
• WTD: Participation still favors tech and discretionary, small caps trail, and dollar firmness caps I-fund proxies.
• MTD: Drip higher after September’s pivot, rates volatility is calmer, and megacaps keep leadership.
• 3-Week: Tone improved as VIX bled lower, dollar headwind faded, and AI earnings kept a floor.
TSP StatsG-Fund Estimated Forward Returns • +0.0115% per session [11]
• 5 Sessions: +0.058% • November: +0.22% • 3 Months: +0.73% • 1 Year: +2.95%
FCSI Past-5 Sessions
• F-Fund +0.29% • C-Fund +1.07% • S-Fund +1.63% • I-Fund +0.21%
Today's 1st Hour of Trading, What to Watch For• 10/30 THU 08:30 — [Macro] Q3 GDP (advance) and weekly claims: GDP may be delayed by shutdown, private nowcast posts may matter more than usual. [12]
• 10/30 THU 13:00 — [Auction] 7y Treasury: watch size and tail after the Fed cut, curve tone can spill into banks and housing. [13]
• Data-gap hedging: with BLS and BEA prints at risk, watch PMI, ADP-proxy chatter, and big-bank trackers for an early read on jobs/inflation. [2]
Upcoming Headlines (5-Day Window, ET)• 10/30 THU 08:30 — [Macro] GDP (advance), Weekly Claims — publication subject to shutdown; price action if it shows up. [14]
• 10/31 FRI 10:00 — [Macro] Chicago PMI and final PMIs: good shutdown substitute for growth tone. [15]
• 11/03 MON 10:00 — [Macro] ISM Manufacturing (Oct): key for goods slowdown and capex. [15]
• 11/04 TUE 11:30 — [Auction] 3m/6m bills and updated Treasury schedule: supply watch while Fed is easing. [13]
Off in the Distance (+5-Days Out)• CME FedWatch: 90% odds of a 25 bp cut at the 10-Dec FOMC, 10% no change. [3]
• 11/07 FRI — October Employment Report: BLS release timing uncertain while the shutdown lasts. [2]
• 11/13 THU — October CPI (core): first clean inflation look the Fed can use if shutdown persists. [15]
• 12/10 WED — FOMC decision + Powell: market wants confirmation of the second 2025 cut. [3]
▶ Citation Block
[1] 29-Oct-2025: Reuters: Dow ends lower, S&P 500 flat as Powell cools December cut hopes
[2] 06-Oct-2025: Reuters: US government shutdown: how it affects key economic data publishing
[3] 29-Oct-2025: CME Group: FedWatch Tool — target rate probabilities
[4] 30-Oct-2025: Bloomberg: Stocks waver as traders digest Fed cut
[5] 30-Oct-2025: TradingEconomics: Global economic calendar and Asia session wrap
[6] 30-Oct-2025: MarketWatch: US economy and politics calendar
[7] 29-Oct-2025: AP News: How major US stock indexes fared Wednesday
[8] 29-Oct-2025: MarketWatch: Dow climb halted as Powell pushes back on December cut
[9] 29-Oct-2025: Investors.com: Stock Market Today after the Fed decision
[10] 29-Oct-2025: Investopedia: Top Stock Movers: Nvidia, Caterpillar, Fiserv
[11] 29-Oct-2025: TSPtalk.com: Daily TSP share prices and month-to-date returns
[12] 30-Oct-2025: FRED/St. Louis Fed: Economic Release Calendar (GDP, claims)
[13] 30-Oct-2025: New York Fed: National Economic and Auction Calendar
[14] 30-Oct-2025: TradingCharts: United States economic calendar for 30-Oct-2025
[15] 30-Oct-2025: Econoday: 2025 economic calendar (US and global)
Disclaimer: Any resemblance to actual outcomes is purely coincidental.• Powered by AI-Intela: Sometimes thinking hard, sometimes hardly thinking.
