Pre-Bell 
Brief
Time: 2025-10-08 08:30 (ET)
Key Takeaway
• DXY firm near recent highs into today’s 10-year auction. [1]
• Yesterday broke the SPX seven-session win streak; small caps lagged. [2]
• Shutdown risks delay key data prints; traders lean on private proxies and Fed cues. [3]
What Moved Overnight
• Gold hovered near record highs above $4,000 while stocks steadied after Tuesday’s fade. [4]
• Treasury calendar front-loads risk: 10-year results at 1:00 p.m. ET, Fed speakers later. [5]
• Agencies flag data gaps during the shutdown, keeping uncertainty elevated. [6]
How the Prior Session Closed
• SPX −0.38% to 6,714.59; DJI −0.20%; IXIC −0.67%. Record streak ended. [2]
• Russell small caps underperformed; breadth narrowed as mega caps cooled. [2]
• Rate sensitivity mixed as yields eased into supply. [2]
• Top SPX Winner: APP (AppLovin) +7.6% (Information Technology). [7]
• Bottom SPX Loser: STX (Seagate Technology) −7.3% (Information Technology). [7]
TSP Fund Proxy 5-Day Stats close-to-close
• G → G Fund: 4.250% for September 2025; shutdown may delay update. [10]
• F → AGG: −0.12% [11]
• C → S&P 500: +0.39% [11]
• S → VXF: +0.45% [11]
• I → ACWX: +1.26% [11]
Today's 1st Hour of Trading, What to Watch For
• Dollar firmness: a stronger DXY can pressure commodities and multinationals. [1]
• Volatility tone: watch VIX versus yesterday’s drop in breadth. [8]
• Auction setup: 10-year tail or stop-out color often sets the midday tone. [5]
Upcoming Headlines (5-Day Window, ET)
• 10/08 WED 13:00 — [Auction] 10-year note results: bid strength, tail, indirects. [5]
• 10/08 WED 14:00 — [Fed] FOMC Minutes: guidance amid data blackout risk. [9]
• 10/09 THU 08:30 — [Fed] Chair Powell speaks: policy path and labor softness. [12]
• 10/09 THU 13:00 — [Auction] 30-year bond results: duration appetite check. [13]
Disclaimer: Any resemblance to actual outcomes is purely coincidental.
• Powered by AI-Intela: Sometimes thinking hard, sometimes hardly thinking.
▶ Citation Block
[1] 2025-10-08: TradingView: “DXY — U.S. Dollar Index Chart”
[2] 2025-10-08: Yahoo/AP: “How major US stock indexes fared Tuesday, 10/7/2025”
[3] 2025-10-06: Reuters: “US government shutdown: How it affects key economic data publishing”
[4] 2025-10-07: Investopedia: “Markets News, Oct. 7, 2025: Indexes slip; Gold tops $4,000”
[5] 2025-10-08: MarketWatch Live: “Wednesday’s Fedspeak and Treasury auction”
[6] 2025-10-06: ABC News: “Government shutdown halts data, stokes risk”
[7] 2025-10-08: Investopedia: “S&P 500 Gains and Losses Today: Tesla and Ford Fall; AMD Extends OpenAI-Fueled Rally”
[8] 2025-10-08: MarketWatch: “Cboe Volatility Index Overview — VIX”
[9] 2025-10-08: CME/Econoday: “US: FOMC Minutes”
[10] 2025-10-08: TSPFolio: “Current TSP G Fund interest rate”
[11] 2025-10-08: Barchart: “5-Day change snapshots for AGG, VXF, ACWX, and $SPX”
[12] 2025-10-09: Investing.com: “U.S. Fed Chair Powell Speaks”
[13] 2025-10-02: TreasuryDirect: “Upcoming Auctions”
BriefTime: 2025-10-08 08:30 (ET)
Key Takeaway• DXY firm near recent highs into today’s 10-year auction. [1]
• Yesterday broke the SPX seven-session win streak; small caps lagged. [2]
• Shutdown risks delay key data prints; traders lean on private proxies and Fed cues. [3]
What Moved Overnight• Gold hovered near record highs above $4,000 while stocks steadied after Tuesday’s fade. [4]
• Treasury calendar front-loads risk: 10-year results at 1:00 p.m. ET, Fed speakers later. [5]
• Agencies flag data gaps during the shutdown, keeping uncertainty elevated. [6]
How the Prior Session Closed• SPX −0.38% to 6,714.59; DJI −0.20%; IXIC −0.67%. Record streak ended. [2]
• Russell small caps underperformed; breadth narrowed as mega caps cooled. [2]
• Rate sensitivity mixed as yields eased into supply. [2]
• Top SPX Winner: APP (AppLovin) +7.6% (Information Technology). [7]
• Bottom SPX Loser: STX (Seagate Technology) −7.3% (Information Technology). [7]
TSP Fund Proxy 5-Day Stats close-to-close• G → G Fund: 4.250% for September 2025; shutdown may delay update. [10]
• F → AGG: −0.12% [11]
• C → S&P 500: +0.39% [11]
• S → VXF: +0.45% [11]
• I → ACWX: +1.26% [11]
Today's 1st Hour of Trading, What to Watch For• Dollar firmness: a stronger DXY can pressure commodities and multinationals. [1]
• Volatility tone: watch VIX versus yesterday’s drop in breadth. [8]
• Auction setup: 10-year tail or stop-out color often sets the midday tone. [5]
Upcoming Headlines (5-Day Window, ET)• 10/08 WED 13:00 — [Auction] 10-year note results: bid strength, tail, indirects. [5]
• 10/08 WED 14:00 — [Fed] FOMC Minutes: guidance amid data blackout risk. [9]
• 10/09 THU 08:30 — [Fed] Chair Powell speaks: policy path and labor softness. [12]
• 10/09 THU 13:00 — [Auction] 30-year bond results: duration appetite check. [13]
Disclaimer: Any resemblance to actual outcomes is purely coincidental.• Powered by AI-Intela: Sometimes thinking hard, sometimes hardly thinking.
▶ Citation Block
[1] 2025-10-08: TradingView: “DXY — U.S. Dollar Index Chart”
[2] 2025-10-08: Yahoo/AP: “How major US stock indexes fared Tuesday, 10/7/2025”
[3] 2025-10-06: Reuters: “US government shutdown: How it affects key economic data publishing”
[4] 2025-10-07: Investopedia: “Markets News, Oct. 7, 2025: Indexes slip; Gold tops $4,000”
[5] 2025-10-08: MarketWatch Live: “Wednesday’s Fedspeak and Treasury auction”
[6] 2025-10-06: ABC News: “Government shutdown halts data, stokes risk”
[7] 2025-10-08: Investopedia: “S&P 500 Gains and Losses Today: Tesla and Ford Fall; AMD Extends OpenAI-Fueled Rally”
[8] 2025-10-08: MarketWatch: “Cboe Volatility Index Overview — VIX”
[9] 2025-10-08: CME/Econoday: “US: FOMC Minutes”
[10] 2025-10-08: TSPFolio: “Current TSP G Fund interest rate”
[11] 2025-10-08: Barchart: “5-Day change snapshots for AGG, VXF, ACWX, and $SPX”
[12] 2025-10-09: Investing.com: “U.S. Fed Chair Powell Speaks”
[13] 2025-10-02: TreasuryDirect: “Upcoming Auctions”
