Time: 2025-10-09 08:15 (ET)
Key Takeaway
• SPX set a fresh record close at 6,753.72; tech led while Dow was flat. [1]
• The shutdown is delaying key government data releases, pushing traders to private proxies and Fed speakers. [2]
• DXY hovers near 99 as markets eye Chair Powell and a 30-year auction today. [3]
What Moved Overnight
• U.S. futures were muted ahead of Powell’s remarks, with focus on rates and labor signals in the minutes. [4]
• Earnings in focus: PepsiCo posted Q3 and held an 08:15 ET call; Delta reported strong Q3 metrics. [5–6]
• Europe notched records yesterday; gold held above $4,000 amid rate-cut hopes and geopolitics. [7–8]
How the Prior Session Closed
• SPX +0.60% to 6,753.72, a record close; IXIC +1.10%; DJI −0.00%. [1]
• Tech leadership continued as AI-linked names advanced; breadth was mixed under a data blackout. [1,4]
• Top SPX Winner: AMD (Advanced Micro Devices) +11.4% (Information Technology). [9]
• Bottom SPX Loser: FICO (Fair Isaac) −9.8% (Information Technology). [9]
TSP Fund Proxy 5-Day Stats close-to-close
• G → G Fund: 4.250% for Sep 2025; shutdown may delay update. [10]
• F → AGG: −0.04% [11]
• C → SPX: +1.47% [11]
• S → VXF: +1.31% [11]
• I → ACWX: +0.95% [11]
Today's 1st Hour of Trading, What to Watch For
• Does AI strength broaden or narrow: watch AMD, NVDA, and equal-weight cues. [4]
• Small-cap follow-through: VXF vs SPX; rotation tells if the move has legs. [4]
• Dollar and long-end: DXY near 99 into the 30-year auction can sway megacaps and bonds. [3,12]
Upcoming Headlines (5-Day Window, ET)
• 10/09 THU 08:30 — [Fed] Powell welcoming remarks: tone check on cuts. [12]
• 10/09 THU 13:00 — [Auction] 30-Year Bond reopening: long-rate signal for tech and housing. [13]
• 10/09 THU 17:00 — [Earnings] Levi Strauss (LEVI) Q3 call after close. [14]
• 10/10 FRI — [Earnings] Delta and airlines commentary reverberates into travel demand. [6]
• Data prints — [Macro] Many BLS/BEA releases delayed by shutdown; use private proxies. [2]
Disclaimer: Any resemblance to actual outcomes is purely coincidental.
• Powered by AI-Intela: Sometimes thinking hard, sometimes hardly thinking.
▶ Citation Block
[1] 2025-10-08: Yahoo Finance: “How major US stock indexes fared Wednesday, 10/8/2025”
[2] 2025-10-01: bls.gov: “Suspension of Federal Government Services”
[3] 2025-10-09: Investing.com: “US Dollar Index Historical Data (DXY)”
[4] 2025-10-09: Reuters: “Wall St futures muted as investors await Powell's take on inflation, jobs”
[5] 2025-10-09: Nasdaq/RTTNews: “PepsiCo Q3 25 earnings conference call at 8:15 AM ET”
[6] 2025-10-09: Delta Air Lines: “Delta Air Lines announces September quarter 2025 financial results”
[7] 2025-10-08: Reuters: “Stocks rise with U.S. and European indexes hitting records”
[8] 2025-10-09: Reuters: “Gold holds above $4,000 as investors assess risks”
[9] 2025-10-08: Trefis: “10/8/2025 S&P 500 Update — Winners: AMD, DELL, ANET; Losers: FICO, CZR, WBD”
[10] 2025-10-09: tspfolio.com: “Current TSP G Fund interest rate”
[11] 2025-10-08: Investing.com: “S&P 500 Historical Data”
[12] 2025-10-09: federalreserve.gov: “Welcoming remarks by Chair Powell”
[13] 2025-10-09: us500.com: “Upcoming Treasury Auctions”
[14] 2025-10-09: LEVI IR: “Events & Presentations — Earnings today”
Key Takeaway• SPX set a fresh record close at 6,753.72; tech led while Dow was flat. [1]
• The shutdown is delaying key government data releases, pushing traders to private proxies and Fed speakers. [2]
• DXY hovers near 99 as markets eye Chair Powell and a 30-year auction today. [3]
What Moved Overnight• U.S. futures were muted ahead of Powell’s remarks, with focus on rates and labor signals in the minutes. [4]
• Earnings in focus: PepsiCo posted Q3 and held an 08:15 ET call; Delta reported strong Q3 metrics. [5–6]
• Europe notched records yesterday; gold held above $4,000 amid rate-cut hopes and geopolitics. [7–8]
How the Prior Session Closed• SPX +0.60% to 6,753.72, a record close; IXIC +1.10%; DJI −0.00%. [1]
• Tech leadership continued as AI-linked names advanced; breadth was mixed under a data blackout. [1,4]
• Top SPX Winner: AMD (Advanced Micro Devices) +11.4% (Information Technology). [9]
• Bottom SPX Loser: FICO (Fair Isaac) −9.8% (Information Technology). [9]
TSP Fund Proxy 5-Day Stats close-to-close• G → G Fund: 4.250% for Sep 2025; shutdown may delay update. [10]
• F → AGG: −0.04% [11]
• C → SPX: +1.47% [11]
• S → VXF: +1.31% [11]
• I → ACWX: +0.95% [11]
Today's 1st Hour of Trading, What to Watch For• Does AI strength broaden or narrow: watch AMD, NVDA, and equal-weight cues. [4]
• Small-cap follow-through: VXF vs SPX; rotation tells if the move has legs. [4]
• Dollar and long-end: DXY near 99 into the 30-year auction can sway megacaps and bonds. [3,12]
Upcoming Headlines (5-Day Window, ET)• 10/09 THU 08:30 — [Fed] Powell welcoming remarks: tone check on cuts. [12]
• 10/09 THU 13:00 — [Auction] 30-Year Bond reopening: long-rate signal for tech and housing. [13]
• 10/09 THU 17:00 — [Earnings] Levi Strauss (LEVI) Q3 call after close. [14]
• 10/10 FRI — [Earnings] Delta and airlines commentary reverberates into travel demand. [6]
• Data prints — [Macro] Many BLS/BEA releases delayed by shutdown; use private proxies. [2]
Disclaimer: Any resemblance to actual outcomes is purely coincidental.• Powered by AI-Intela: Sometimes thinking hard, sometimes hardly thinking.
▶ Citation Block
[1] 2025-10-08: Yahoo Finance: “How major US stock indexes fared Wednesday, 10/8/2025”
[2] 2025-10-01: bls.gov: “Suspension of Federal Government Services”
[3] 2025-10-09: Investing.com: “US Dollar Index Historical Data (DXY)”
[4] 2025-10-09: Reuters: “Wall St futures muted as investors await Powell's take on inflation, jobs”
[5] 2025-10-09: Nasdaq/RTTNews: “PepsiCo Q3 25 earnings conference call at 8:15 AM ET”
[6] 2025-10-09: Delta Air Lines: “Delta Air Lines announces September quarter 2025 financial results”
[7] 2025-10-08: Reuters: “Stocks rise with U.S. and European indexes hitting records”
[8] 2025-10-09: Reuters: “Gold holds above $4,000 as investors assess risks”
[9] 2025-10-08: Trefis: “10/8/2025 S&P 500 Update — Winners: AMD, DELL, ANET; Losers: FICO, CZR, WBD”
[10] 2025-10-09: tspfolio.com: “Current TSP G Fund interest rate”
[11] 2025-10-08: Investing.com: “S&P 500 Historical Data”
[12] 2025-10-09: federalreserve.gov: “Welcoming remarks by Chair Powell”
[13] 2025-10-09: us500.com: “Upcoming Treasury Auctions”
[14] 2025-10-09: LEVI IR: “Events & Presentations — Earnings today”
