Pre-Bell 
10-Oct-2025
Time: 2025-10-10 07:15 (ET)
Key Takeaway
• Dollar tone stays firm near 99 as traders hedge into a data-light Friday. [1]
• Thursday paused the rally: SPX slipped −0.28%; breadth mixed after recent records. [2]
• Shutdown skews the playbook: CPI workarounds likely as BLS recalls staff to finish the report. [3]
What Moved Overnight
• Futures are quiet while shutdown headlines drip; traders lean on corporate news and the dollar for cues. [4]
• Airlines and staples had afterglow from DAL and PEP beats; focus turns to next week’s bank earnings. [5]
• DXY holds near 99; a firmer dollar can cap risk-on squeezes at the open. [6]
How the Prior Session Closed
• SPX −0.28% to 6,735.11, second loss in ten sessions. [2]
• DJI −0.50% to 46,358.42; IXIC −0.10% to 23,024.63; small caps lagged. [2]
• Gold cooled from highs; tape digested a heavy week of records. [2]
• Top SPX Winner: ALB (Albemarle) +5.20% (Materials). [7]
• Bottom SPX Loser: DELL (Dell Technologies) −5.20% (Information Technology). [7]
TSP Fund Proxy 5-Day Stats close-to-close
• G → G Fund: 4.250% for October 2025. [10]
• F → AGG: −0.27% [11]
• C → S&P 500: +0.29% [11]
• S → VXF: +1.32% [11]
• I → ACWX: +2.18% [11]
Today's 1st Hour of Trading, What to Watch For
• Opening push-pull: dollar firmness vs. dip-buyers after Thursday’s fade; first 15 minutes set tone. [4]
• Airlines and staples follow-through: does DAL’s pricing power spill into travel peers and consumer defensives. [5]
• Treasury bill supply chatter into next week’s auctions: watch rates-sensitive groups on bid-to-cover talk. [8]
Upcoming Headlines (5-Day Window, ET)
• 10/10 FRI — [Macro] Shutdown bite: missed federal paychecks hit today; spending ripple watch. [15]
• 10/14 TUE 11:30 — [Auction] 13- and 26-week T-bill auctions; size and bid-to-cover. [16]
• 10/14 TUE 08:30 — [Earnings] JPM Q3 results: bank read-through for credit and trading. [17]
• 10/15 WED — [Macro] CPI timing uncertain; BLS recalling staff to publish a delayed print. [18]
Disclaimer: Any resemblance to actual outcomes is purely coincidental.
• Powered by AI-Intela: Sometimes thinking hard, sometimes hardly thinking.
▶ Citation Block
[1] 2025-10-10: TradingView: “DXY — U.S. Dollar Index Chart”
[2] 2025-10-10: AP News: “How major US stock indexes fared Thursday, 10/9/2025”
[3] 2025-10-10: The Wall Street Journal: “Federal Government Recalls Workers to Produce Key Inflation Report”
[4] 2025-10-10: Yahoo Finance: “Stock market today: futures take a breather as shutdown drags on”
[5] 2025-10-10: Investopedia: “Delta Q3 results and sector read-through”; Reuters: “PepsiCo beats Q3 estimates; names new CFO”
[6] 2025-10-10: Investing.com: “US Dollar Index (DXY)”
[7] 2025-10-10: Investopedia: “Stocks End Lower; ALB led gains, DELL led losses”
[10] 2025-10-01: PlanWell FP: “October 2025 G Fund Rate Today”
[11] 2025-10-10: Investing.com: “S&P 500 Index overview (5-day); AGG overview (1-week); VXF overview (1-week); ACWX overview (1-week)”
[15] 2025-10-08: Reuters: “Upcoming deadlines in the US government shutdown”
[16] 2025-10-10: TreasuryDirect: “Upcoming Auctions”
[17] 2025-10-10: JPMorgan Chase: “Third-Quarter 2025 earnings call details”
[18] 2025-10-10: Axios: “The BLS is prepping a delayed inflation report”
10-Oct-2025Time: 2025-10-10 07:15 (ET)
Key Takeaway• Dollar tone stays firm near 99 as traders hedge into a data-light Friday. [1]
• Thursday paused the rally: SPX slipped −0.28%; breadth mixed after recent records. [2]
• Shutdown skews the playbook: CPI workarounds likely as BLS recalls staff to finish the report. [3]
What Moved Overnight• Futures are quiet while shutdown headlines drip; traders lean on corporate news and the dollar for cues. [4]
• Airlines and staples had afterglow from DAL and PEP beats; focus turns to next week’s bank earnings. [5]
• DXY holds near 99; a firmer dollar can cap risk-on squeezes at the open. [6]
How the Prior Session Closed• SPX −0.28% to 6,735.11, second loss in ten sessions. [2]
• DJI −0.50% to 46,358.42; IXIC −0.10% to 23,024.63; small caps lagged. [2]
• Gold cooled from highs; tape digested a heavy week of records. [2]
• Top SPX Winner: ALB (Albemarle) +5.20% (Materials). [7]
• Bottom SPX Loser: DELL (Dell Technologies) −5.20% (Information Technology). [7]
TSP Fund Proxy 5-Day Stats close-to-close• G → G Fund: 4.250% for October 2025. [10]
• F → AGG: −0.27% [11]
• C → S&P 500: +0.29% [11]
• S → VXF: +1.32% [11]
• I → ACWX: +2.18% [11]
Today's 1st Hour of Trading, What to Watch For• Opening push-pull: dollar firmness vs. dip-buyers after Thursday’s fade; first 15 minutes set tone. [4]
• Airlines and staples follow-through: does DAL’s pricing power spill into travel peers and consumer defensives. [5]
• Treasury bill supply chatter into next week’s auctions: watch rates-sensitive groups on bid-to-cover talk. [8]
Upcoming Headlines (5-Day Window, ET)• 10/10 FRI — [Macro] Shutdown bite: missed federal paychecks hit today; spending ripple watch. [15]
• 10/14 TUE 11:30 — [Auction] 13- and 26-week T-bill auctions; size and bid-to-cover. [16]
• 10/14 TUE 08:30 — [Earnings] JPM Q3 results: bank read-through for credit and trading. [17]
• 10/15 WED — [Macro] CPI timing uncertain; BLS recalling staff to publish a delayed print. [18]
Disclaimer: Any resemblance to actual outcomes is purely coincidental.• Powered by AI-Intela: Sometimes thinking hard, sometimes hardly thinking.
▶ Citation Block
[1] 2025-10-10: TradingView: “DXY — U.S. Dollar Index Chart”
[2] 2025-10-10: AP News: “How major US stock indexes fared Thursday, 10/9/2025”
[3] 2025-10-10: The Wall Street Journal: “Federal Government Recalls Workers to Produce Key Inflation Report”
[4] 2025-10-10: Yahoo Finance: “Stock market today: futures take a breather as shutdown drags on”
[5] 2025-10-10: Investopedia: “Delta Q3 results and sector read-through”; Reuters: “PepsiCo beats Q3 estimates; names new CFO”
[6] 2025-10-10: Investing.com: “US Dollar Index (DXY)”
[7] 2025-10-10: Investopedia: “Stocks End Lower; ALB led gains, DELL led losses”
[10] 2025-10-01: PlanWell FP: “October 2025 G Fund Rate Today”
[11] 2025-10-10: Investing.com: “S&P 500 Index overview (5-day); AGG overview (1-week); VXF overview (1-week); ACWX overview (1-week)”
[15] 2025-10-08: Reuters: “Upcoming deadlines in the US government shutdown”
[16] 2025-10-10: TreasuryDirect: “Upcoming Auctions”
[17] 2025-10-10: JPMorgan Chase: “Third-Quarter 2025 earnings call details”
[18] 2025-10-10: Axios: “The BLS is prepping a delayed inflation report”
