Market Talk / Nov. 5 - Nov. 11

[Mike]

Bush will capitulate. 2nd termers start thinking legacy at this point, and if he wants to be remembered at all favorably, he'll probably cave to at least some of the Dem demands now that they are setting the legislative agenda. Within a year, I expect us to see a guest worker program and a minimum wage hike. Beyond that, it really depends on just how much backbone W lost after this election cycle.

Oh, and we'll almost certainly see some investigations, subpoenas, etc. It'll amount to nothing most likely, but it's going to be an on-going battle... much like the investigations that dogged Clinton in his second term.

Wall St will probably like the guest worker program... doubtful they'll like a minimum wage hike, though.

 

[James48843]

I doubt we'll see impeachment hearings.

However, the case could be made for war crime trials for G.W. and Rumsfeld.

Broke international law, for invading without U.N. approval.

Bu then again, there probably will be no war crime trial. The world will let it rest.

The good news is the market has shaken it off, and looks to be headed north once again.

Fully invested for the ride up.

 

[weatherweenie]

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.8.

 

[weatherweenie]

08:33 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.5.

 

[James48843]

Bulls running today.

MOOOOOoooooo

 

[The_Technician]

Read this carefully, trade deficit is down but a big part of it is the reduced price of oil.....expects the trade deficit to be more than last years..China still a pain in the side....

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061109/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy

 

[The_Technician]

inventories rise...indicating sales are off......corporate profits will suffer......consumer confidence should show a drop...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20061109/bs_nm/economy_inventories_dc

 

[mlk_man]

Good call......................30 minutes after the report comes out.........

 

[mlk_man]

Good call......................30 minutes after the report comes out.........

M_M stop it!!

 

[Birchtree]

I'm glad I like the taste of natural gas. It'll help me through the holidays.

 

[Pilgrim]

Have we completely priced in the election results, or will Senator Allen's impending consession and the reality of Democratic control of both houses cause a selloff? Whatever happens could happen today (naturally, the senator has been informed about our trading deadline and has agreed to act only after it has passed) Opinions??

 

[Birchtree]

What do I have to do to instigate a buying panic? That leaves me wide open...

 

[Pilgrim]

What do I have to do to instigate a buying panic? That leaves me wide open...

Just bring about a sharp pullback, 5 or 6 percent lasting a week or two then bottoming. Many on this board, perhaps Tom most of all, are like coiled springs just praying for the green light.

 

[Birchtree]

My greed factor won't allow me to try and precipitate any kind of decline, other than the intraday kind. Follow me to the gorge you hoofers.

 

[James48843]

I think the market is still digesting all of the possible ramifications of the dem sweep.

One way to look at it- if the minimum wage is increased quickly, that could put some upward pressure on wages, and with it, upward pressure on prices. With that would come higher returns- and higher stock prices.

We may have a couple days to digest where we go from here. I see the "S" is just slightly ahead right now- the momentum of the last week or so is fading. Perhaps a day or two of rest ahead. We'll just have to wait and see.

Take a look at this chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$EMW&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p91531895037

It's the "S"'s Wilshire 4500

It looks to me like we are ready for a hard upside break. Almost like what the chart looked like around December 20th last year. If so- we still have strength ahead.

 

[ATCJeff]

Just bring about a sharp pullback, 5 or 6 percent lasting a week or two then bottoming. Many on this board, perhaps Tom most of all, are like coiled springs just praying for the green light.

Now that's not very nice for the rest of us invested 100% long. Let me know when the pullback starts so I can bail to my lilly pad!

 

[ATCJeff]

I think the market is still digesting all of the possible ramifications of the dem sweep.

One way to look at it- if the minimum wage is increased quickly, that could put some upward pressure on wages, and with it, upward pressure on prices. With that would come higher returns- and higher stock prices.

We may have a couple days to digest where we go from here. I see the "S" is just slightly ahead right now- the momentum of the last week or so is fading. Perhaps a day or two of rest ahead. We'll just have to wait and see.

Take a look at this chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$EMW&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p91531895037

It's the "S"'s Wilshire 4500

It looks to me like we are ready for a hard upside break. Almost like what the chart looked like around December 20th last year. If so- we still have strength ahead.

Hold on...

Upward pressure on wages? That's inflationary. Our low unemployment rate is putting enough pressure on wages already. Don't think the Feds want to see anymore wage pressure.

Upward pressure on prices? That would cut corporate margins. Not good for the earnings/stock price. Bad for the market.

 

[ATCJeff]

My greed factor won't allow me to try and precipitate any kind of decline, other than the intraday kind. Follow me to the gorge you hoofers.

I got your six!

 

[Birchtree]

Agree - nice looking component crossovers for a buy signal. Money flow is digesting and moving from area of perceived over valuations and obviously moving into the secondaries. This is positive because it may mean that the 4 year low is indeed behind us.

 

[Birchtree]

Nickles and dimes - the A/D line looks fairly tight today for a possible turn around. That would probably be too much to ask - how about tomorrow then?