Market Talk / Nov. 5 - Nov. 11

[Birchtree]

From Henry To: At this point, the breadth of the market is still strong - despite last weeks correction. Even should breadth top out here, the major indices typically should still have four to six months to run before forming a significant top (based on action in a typical bull market.)

Dennis - permabull #1

 

[weatherweenie]

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.2. Early indications are signaling a mixed start for stocks. That's not all that surprising, though, as investors await the results of today's closely-watched mid-term elections and there isn't much in the way of market-moving news to sustain yesterday's surprise rally.

 

[Pilgrim]

Wall St., if the Democrats win

Republicans could very well lose the House and possibly the Senate, too. Here's what that means for investors.

By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
November 6 2006: 6:57 PM EST


In the short term, a change in control of at least one of the chambers of Congress would probably spark a stock selloff,investors and market experts said.That's because traditionally Republican Wall Street would seem to prefer to have Republicans in control of Capitol Hill as well as the White House since the party's policies are widely viewed as more big business friendly.
Should the Republicans hold on to both chambers of Congress, "we can anticipate an upward - though likely short-lived - trend" in the market, said David Leblang, a political science professor at the University of Colorado, Boulder.

 

[ATCJeff]

09:00 ET Dow , Nasdaq , S&P : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +1.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.0. Still shaping up to be a sluggish start for equities, with early signs suggesting today's elections might keep the stock market in a holding pattern throughout the session. Meanwhile, with the impact of a weak housing market at the forefront of investors', and voters', minds, homebuilders will garner added attention today. Beazer Homes (BZH) beat a downwardly revised Q4 consensus estimate but issued downside FY07 EPS guidance while KB Home (KBH) and Toll Brothers (TOL) also provided disappointing updates. Nasdaq at... NYSE Adv/Dec 0/0... Nasdaq Adv/Dec 0/0.

 

[ATCJeff]

09:40 ET Dow +6.32 at 12111.87, Nasdaq +0.55 at 2366.50, S&P +0.49 at 1380.27: [BRIEFING.COM] As futures trade presaged, stocks open with little fanfare as investors exhibit some signs of fatigue after Monday's broad-based rally took so many by surprise. The absence of market-moving news items -- from no notable earnings reports to a lack of economic data -- are contributing to the lack of more aggressive follow-through efforts. In fact, with voters heading to the polls all day long, the stock market is likely to remain in a wait-and-see mode until the mid-term results are tallied tonight, which may then cause some short-term volatility. Nasdaq +0.55 at 2366.50... NYSE Adv/Dec 0/0... Nasdaq Adv/Dec 0/0.

 

[ATCJeff]

10:00 ET Dow +32.60 at 12138.15, Nasdaq +6.31 at 2372.26, S&P +1.75 at 1381.53: [BRIEFING.COM] The indices are cautiously extending early gains, but split sector leadership continues to dictate early action. Of the six sectors trading higher, Technology is providing the bulk of leadership. Chip stocks are getting a lift after Altera Corp (ALTR 18.92 +0.48) topped Q3 expectations last night. Industrials are also offering some notable support as an analyst upgrade on Southwest Airlines (LUV 15.36 +0.42) positions Airlines (+2.8%) as this morning's second best performing S&P industry group. SOX +1.0... Nasdaq +6.31 at 2372.26... NYSE Adv/Dec 1541/1046... Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1463/979.

 

[James48843]

Looks like the "S" fund is doing even better today that any other-

Catch "the wave..."

 

[ATCJeff]

Looks like the "S" fund is doing even better today that any other-

Catch "the wave..."

Not so fast there James. You have to take into account the dollar when looking at the I fund. The dollar is way down this morning. To me the I fund is leading at the moment.

 

[350zCommTech]

Looks like the "S" fund is doing even better today that any other-

Catch "the wave..."

The I fund is doing much better.

 

[sugarandspice]

Once the Democrats have the House and Senate wrapped up with the news outlets calling races before midnight(probably well before), what do you think the International markets reaction will be? A definite future of not much getting done and if anything does happen it will be for personal spotlighting.

I don't think the markets will really care over there or here overall. It will wear off after a day or two like all the other stuff.

 

[ATCJeff]

Once the Democrats have the House and Senate wrapped up with the news outlets calling races before midnight(probably well before), what do you think the International markets reaction will be? A definite future of not much getting done and if anything does happen it will be for personal spotlighting.

I don't think the markets will really care over there or here overall. It will wear off after a day or two like all the other stuff.

Not so fast Sugar. I'm thinking the Senate will stay Rep. and we will see challenges for recounts. Virginia and Missouri are to close to call. Senate results will not be known until the end of the week.

 

[James48843]

Raining here today in Michigan.

Rain has traditionally been lower turnout - which in turn helps republicans here.

Will the pundits be right in a House or Senate change?

Who knows?

Besides- Diebold still holds the key here....

 

[mayday]

Raining here today in Michigan.

Rain has traditionally been lower turnout - which in turn helps republicans here.

Will the pundits be right in a House or Senate change?

Who knows?

Besides- Diebold still holds the key here....

I just voted and the place was packed.

 

[Birchtree]

That's probably indicative of a strong Republican turn out - got my fingers crossed.

 

[ATCJeff]

I voted and no lines at all. Polling officer said only lines were this morning at 7am.

 

[ATCJeff]

12:00 ET Dow +79.64 at 12185.19, Nasdaq +20.38 at 2386.33, S&P +6.37 at 1386.15:
[BRIEFING.COM] The indices are trading near session highs midday as growing prospects of Congressional gridlock following today's mid-term elections helps to keep the underlying bullish tone intact.
With another quarter of double-digit earnings growth largely in the books and the absence of potentially weak economic data to rattle the market, investors are again showing little concern about Democrats potentially taking control of the House for the first time since 1994. After all, such a scenario has been predicted for some time now. However, since such a situation will create gridlock on Capitol Hill, should Republicans maintain control of the Senate that is, it can also be argued that a split Congress will likely not result in significant policy changes over the next two years, and that is being viewed as bullish for the stock market.
Stocks are also taking a bullish cue from a rally in bonds. Albeit getting an election-day boost as political uncertainty sparks some safe-haven refuge in Treasuries, bonds are getting some added help from Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto, who warned last night that policy makers may have to raise rates if the pace of inflation doesn't wane soon. Fortunately for the bulls, which are more pre-occupied with the pace of economic growth than inflation for the time-being, Pianalto, a voting Fed member, also saying last night that the economy will withstand the housing slump and grow at a "moderate" pace appears to be lending some additional support.
The 10-year note is up 12 ticks to yield 4.65%, which bodes well for rate-sensitive stocks and eases valuation concerns tied to growth companies dependent on borrowing. As a result, influential sectors like Financials and Technology are providing some notable leadership.
Industrials (+1.1%), though, is turning in the best performance among the eight sectors posting gains. Boeing (BA 83.09 +2.61) is soaring 3.2% after FedEx (FDX 114.43 +0.49) cancelled an Airbus order and said it will now buy 15 new Boeing 777 Freighters. The sector is also benefiting from a better than expected Q4 report from Emerson Electric (EMR 88.80 +6.24) as well as an analyst upgrade on Southwest Airlines (LUV 15.44 +0.50), which positions Airlines (+3.4%) as one of today's best performing S&P industry groups.
DJTA +0.9... DJUA -0.1... SOX +2.5... DOT +0.7... XOI -0.2... Nasdaq +20.38 at 2386.33... S&P Midcap 400 +0.6... NYSE Adv/Dec 0/982... Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1963/927.

 

[mayday]

That's probably indicative of a strong Republican turn out - got my fingers crossed.

In this area I believe people are aware of what Democrats could do to their wallet.

 

[Birchtree]

Ya, take it from you and give it to those who choose not to work. I really like their concept of multiculturalism. Multiculturalism is really an updated version of radical egalitarianism which seeks to eliminate all standards and aspirations in order to reduce everyone and everything to the same level. They are so stupid. From an ideological standpoint, multiculturalism is but a thinly veiled attack on the central principles and ideas of Western civilization. These issues and principles have given us the greatest prosperity, the highest standard of living and, more important, the greatest individual freedom ever known to man. Don't dumb me down brother. I say get a life to all Democrats.

 

[Birchtree]

Now I need to see a pure unadulterated buying panic start - it's time to start kickin some heiniken. Snort.

 

[ATCJeff]

Chart provided by: http://www.etfdigest.com/daveDaily.php

Has anyone noticed that every pullback is followed by big upswing a day or two after a bottom is formed?