Market Talk / Nov. 5 - Nov. 11

[fabijo]

My greed factor won't allow me to try and precipitate any kind of decline, other than the intraday kind. Follow me to the gorge you hoofers.

You see what I mean? Your speak is just the same as how the market has been acting. Any dip is a buying opportunity. Tell us, are you in with the big market movers? Do you have the inside scoop? When I see a change in your outlook from buy to sell, I'll be expecting a huge decline. It's as if you are tuned into the psychology of this market. I'll just wait and watch.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

fab,

Birch won't sell until....i dunno...he'll probably never sell. I'm pretty sure he held through May, -7% in C, -12% in S. So if you're following Birch, you have to be able hold through that and probably more. Birch will probably DCA down through a 15% loss. I don't know what happens then???

 

[Pilgrim]

Senator Allen will have a press conference at 3pm and will concede. Final reality of Democratic sweep will sink in. Already priced in or major selloff in last hour? You guess.

 

[Birchtree]

Birch will DCA down into a 15% loss and then DCA all the way back up. Nothing changes except I gain more shares.

 

[Birchtree]

Alrighty now periscopes up - take her down - but not too deep. Get ready for tomorrow. Snort.

 

[Pilgrim]

Birch will DCA down into a 15% loss and then DCA all the way back up. Nothing changes except I gain more shares.

If you bailed out anywhere near the top of a selloff and then bought back anywhere near the bottm, you would end up with a lot more shares than by riding it out. Or am I completely missing something?

 

[SkiUtah]

Looks like the NAZ found support at the 2375 level late in the day...that may have been it for the election correction.

 

[genod]

If you bailed out anywhere near the top of a selloff and then bought back anywhere near the bottm, you would end up with a lot more shares than by riding it out. Or am I completely missing something?

Nope...birch will just have fewer shares. Snort

 

[Birchtree]

Pilgrim,

Do you think we are near a top of consequence or just a pause that refreshes? But theoretically you are correct and that will be the plan later on when there is more volatility - and that day will come. Until then I sacrifice.

 

[ATCJeff]

Nope...birch will just have fewer shares. Snort

And avoid getting faked.

 

[The_Technician]

Thought for tomorrow is the AZ and the EZ will be absorbing these numbers ending to the negative....how much .....don't know....also I'm expecting the dollar to strengthen thru tomorrow...also compounding the effect...

Got the C,S down 8 and 11 cents today.....F will probably be 0 or +1 cent given it didn't pay up yesterday like it should....then again its been know not to....that's why they call it the F'ing fund.....

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
November 9, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................We'll have to take another run at it, too much resistance!

Con-Yak...................................Might be a pull back, cause we was a running hot!

Jester-Yak................................Can't see nuttin for all the dust!

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1378.33, dn -7.39
Stops......................................Alert: 1376. Trail: 1363
Trend (MACD-Hist)....................decreasing at -0.984.
Overbought/sold (S-STO)...........[80] 74.87 [20] reversing.

Lube (NYM) Closed at.................61.16, up +1.33
Oil Markers...............................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles.............................Red.

Tin Box:
TSP........................................Safe; capital preservation.

 

[ATCJeff]

An observation. Not sure if it's correct or not. That's why I need help.

Looking at the S&P 3 month chart. It appears that 1364 is a key support level. I'm thinking if we hit that support in the next day or two it would indicate a reverse in the current uptrend. My question is would we be in a down trend or maybe locked in a sideways channel for who knows how long?

Thanks

http://finance.google.com/finance?q=INDEXSP:.INX

 

[Birchtree]

In bull markets, consolidations like this are referred to as digesting the previous gains per James. It's a way for the market to take a breather. Every time we get a decline the TRIN moves higher and everytime we get a rally the TRIN moves higher as well - this is the perfect signature of strong advances where we are continuously correcting any excesses on the move - we don't need to move lower, all we need to do is make people anxious. Check the inhabitants of the Lilly Pad. I need a buying panic to put the bears on the cross.

 

[ATCJeff]

Birchtree wrote:

I need a buying panic to put the bears on the cross.

I'm not sure if this will happen anytime soon. My gut feelings are that the market's psych is changing. Or could it be mine? I just don't see us climbing anytime soon. I'm starting to wonder if were gonna be locked in a narrow trading channel til the first of the year. Just moving up and down 3-5%. Just doesn't feel right.

With that said I'm still 100% I til I/we/yall figure out where were headed. Remember, it's only money.

BTW, thanks to everyone. You include Tech. This board is a hidden treasure.

 

[Birchtree]

My redeemer for the day was GT (Goodyear). That gain blunted many of the down swings in the portfolio and kept me afloat. Most Holiday trading can be quiet and at the same time a good upside performer. The surprise would be a stampede buying panic to shake the bears out of their complacency and force them to cover short positions and capitulate. I still believe that with the MCSUMs still quite high we're not going to see too much in the way of price decay. S&P 500 third quarter earnings up 18% - my gawd that should send a message that the economy lives and the bulls will dance.

 

[vectorman]

I noticed some members making IFT into other funds today. The only IFT that will be processed is into the G fund, all others will be processed at COB on Monday. This action may become a tracking issue. :nuts:

November 10th (Veterans Day) is a Federal holiday, but the stock and bond markets will be open. In addition, we have been advised by the Department of the Treasury that it will be open to accept our investments in the G Fund. Therefore, the TSP will be operating on a limited business schedule on November 10th.

There is a good possibility that monday may be a rally and some IFT entered today will be processed monday COB at a much higher price. So accounts should be checked monday before 12est to see what day the IFT is being requested.

 

[mlk_man]

Vector, you have to read the rest of the announcement.

 

[vectorman]

Vector, you have to read the rest of the announcement.

Yes, I did read it, but I still think they are referring to transfers into the G fund only. I may be wrong, but check tomorrow to see what has been processed in your account. If your IFT didn't take, you can always cancel it on monday, if needed.

 

[mlk_man]

Will do.