Market Talk / Nov. 19 - Nov. 25

[James48843]

By the way-

For those interested- the Thrift Savings Board has posted the results of the group that was looking at whether or not to adopt a REIT into the TSP. The group recommended against it.

The electronic reading room is at:
http://www.frtib.gov/FOIA/index.html

Go to the "electronic reading room", and then see the document titled: Investment Option Review Report, October 2006.

 

[fabijo]

the Thrift Savings Board has posted the results of the group that was looking at whether or not to adopt a REIT into the TSP. The group recommended against it.

I just looked over that document. I was hoping they would really consider adding the commodities and/or the emerging markets. They basically are against adding any additional markets into the TSP. Look at this quote regarding a commodities index:

However, commodity prices are influenced by demand/supply considerations rather than the intrinsic value of securities,
and future return expectations are uncertain.

Is that not true for any index??

 

[sugarandspice]

I really don't think they are going to add anything because in there view it would be to hard to explain it to the TSP participants. We are just too stupid to understand.

Here's a quote:
Most individual investors will have difficulty in determining an
appropriate allocation to commodities, and commodities have a concentration in the energy sector.

 

[Birchtree]

Sometimes believe it or not, the dumber you are the better an investor you make. There is a penalty to pay when you become too knowledgeable especially with conflicting data.

The 20 week cycle is due in about 2 weeks around Dec. 12 - that would be more than enough time to work off the overbought condition of the market. But there are factors working against any type of price decay. We may not even get a trading range to pause and rest. I'm flexible and willing to let fate intervene.

 

[Show-me]

I really don't think they are going to add anything because in there view it would be to hard to explain it to the TSP participants. We are just too stupid to understand.

Here's a quote:
Most individual investors will have difficulty in determining an
appropriate allocation to commodities, and commodities have a concentration in the energy sector.

They must mean all of the Politicians. :cheesy:

 

[Fivetears]

On Bloomberg this morning, guy says he sees the S&P at 1440 by December, if we don't get a pull-back lower than 1390 on the way. What sayeth you, Sir?

Whoa DJIA don't blow the top so soon - we got all day to be buying.

 

[Birchtree]

I can't be proud - I'll take SPX of 1440. It may actually run harder than that.

 

[Fivetears]

Hey! I resemble that comment. :nuts:

Sometimes believe it or not, the dumber you are the better an investor you make. There is a penalty to pay when you become too knowledgeable especially with conflicting data.

 

[Fivetears]

I think you're right.

I can't be proud - I'll take SPX of 1440. It may actually run harder than that.

 

[Birchtree]

If the S&P 500 moves back to trend, it will be above 2600 by the end of 2008.

 

[Birchtree]

And I'm going to start getting nervous at 1700 - so I'll be nervous the next 900 points after that. That's the sacrifice to make even more money.

 

[fabijo]

Birch, what do you mean by nervous? Nervous that it is costing you more per share, or nervous that the bull run will end?

 

[Birchtree]

Nervous about the way the bull run will end.

 

[Fivetears]

I didn't think this mattered to your method of "sticking it to the man."
I thought your game bull has the "extended / unlimited life" option selected on your PS2, and can jump from / climb straight up market cliffs too. Your thumbs are going to get pretty sore next year. :nuts: PS3 is out!

Nervous about the way the bull run will end.

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
November 22, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................The short term is still working!

Con-Yak...................................A gap up, a fade, and around and around!

Jester-Yak................................Glurp!

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1406.09, up +3.28
Stops......................................Alert: 1393. Trail: 1380
Trend (MACD-Hist)....................decreasing at +1.132.
Overbought/sold (S-STO)...........[80] 94.55 [20] increasing.

Lube (NYM) Closed at.................59.24, dn -0.93
Oil Markers...............................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles.............................Yellow.

Tin Box:
TSP........................................Safe; capital preservation.

View attachment 1189
Happy Thanksgiving! ​

Spaf​

​

​

 

[nnuut]

Yeah, Yeah!

The retirement plan Uncle Sam has right

Hard to believe but true: The government offers employees a great plan, and you'd do well to emulate it


By Walter Updegrave, Money Magazine senior writer
November 22 2006: 1:38 PM EST


(Money Magazine) -- Considering the mess that Social Security and Medicare are in, the federal government is probably the last place you'd look for insights about retirement planning.
But I've got to hand it to the feds: When it comes to investing their own money for retirement, they really know what they're doing. In fact, the Thrift Savings Plan - the equivalent of a 401(k) plan for members of Congress and other government employees - is one of the best retirement plans around.

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/mone...2/01/8395180/index.htm?postversion=2006112213

 

[vic]

nnuut, great article. I have said they should replace SS with TSP, or a portion of SS should be invested in TSP type retirement plan. poeple would take a greater interest in their money, it would become an investment rather then a gov't social program.

 

[nnuut]

I really think we should keep it where it is, if it gets that big it will revert back to the same type of problem they have now, and drag us with it. Lots of poasses like me that would be taking loans and not contributing because they can't afford to live on their salary. I really think it would be a mess.:worried: Make SS as secure as they can and offer other retirement savings opportunities to the people that REALLY work!:notrust:

 

[Birchtree]

Is a 9.90 VIX setting the market up for a blow off top condition? Gesus I hope so.

While the Dow recently has been making new record highs on a non-inflation adjusted basis - on an inflation adjusted basis the Dow still trades below its 1999 peak. A strong melt up would get us there.

 

[Birchtree]

Unfortunately the futures look desparate for the opening - we'll see if there are any buyers at better value pricing. My DCA hits today. That weaker dollar will help the SPX at some point. My wife will hold her AEPGX - international fund.