Market Talk / Dec. 3 - 9

[Griffin]

If this week's 5-day intrady movement holds it's rounding top/dome formation, we're looking at a close around 1400 on the S&P... down around -.51% from yesterday's close at 1407.29. On the C-fund, that translates to a point between the 10 and 20 DMA, or $15.47. Could be a buy point, but the lower trendline may be the safer buy... should sit around ~$15.35. If it breaks that, one take on the elliott wave theory suggests a possible buy at the previous low in wave 4, which $15.26 established on Nov 27th.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^GSPC&t=5d

I've never been comfortable with the Elliot wave theory - everybody seems to have radically different views on the time frames. I like 1390 for the S&P, it would make a nice channel bottom and would support a continuation pattern. If it drops to Nov 27th's prices, that would suggest that all of November has been the beginning of a rounding top and we are on the start of the downside.

 

[fedgolfer]

If this week's 5-day intrady movement holds it's rounding top/dome formation, we're looking at a close around 1400 on the S&P... down around -.51% from yesterday's close at 1407.29. On the C-fund, that translates to a point between the 10 and 20 DMA, or $15.47. Could be a buy point, but the lower trendline may be the safer buy... should sit around ~$15.35. If it breaks that, one take on the elliott wave theory suggests a possible buy at the previous low in wave 4, which $15.26 established on Nov 27th.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^GSPC&t=5d

... let me add a bullish take on this since the markets look to be testing the upper range of this week's trend. The S&P seems to be finding lots of support off its 8 DMA which has proved to be a good support point for many intraday candlesticks in this several-month bull run. The upper bollinger band could be flirted with. Hmmmmm, big decisions in 48 minutes!!!!!

http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#chart2:symbol=^gspc;range=3m;indicator=sma(8)+bollinger+psar+wpr(15);charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;logscale=on;source=undefined

 

[Birchtree]

Seasonally, the S&P 500 should move sideways in the first half of December and rally during the second half of the month. Commercials are holding the biggest short positions since July. Large traders (hedgefunds) are now holding the smallest net long position since late August. Small traders are holding the biggest net long position in four months. Takes creativity to stay long....don't it? Jingle Bells.

 

[fedgolfer]

... the distance between the price and PSAR may be too big considering the rosy econ picture. The s&p price has been playing between the 8 DMA and the upper bollinger lines after testing the PSAR. Monday is looking bullish.... if the indices don't rocket up to the top of the short term trendlines todyay (edited).

 

[SkiUtah]

Is the market doing a head fake or melt up....

 

[Birchtree]

Building steam for a potential lift off - impulse after another small correction - hope we can do at least 70 Dow points today.

 

[weatherweenie]

Is the market doing a head fake or melt up....

Maybe the head fake was the early drop?

 

[Birchtree]

It's not easy being a bull - the bull wants as few people as possible on the ride to the top.

 

[SkiUtah]

Meltup.

11:30 am : The indices extend their reach to the upside as the market continues to shake off early efforts to consolidate gains. The two most influential S&P 500 sectors -- Financials and Technology -- are now pacing the gains among the eight sectors now trading higher. Health Care turning the corner is also providing some notable leadership while the Industrials sector now trading relatively unchanged lends some additional reassurance for the bulls on the quest to extend the rally to five months. DJ30 +40.87 NASDAQ +14.80 SP500 +5.27 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1295/1479/632 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1377/1633/462 mln

 

[weatherweenie]

Meltup.

Hope it doesn't melt up too much today. Needs to save some sugar for Monday when I'm back in 100%.

 

[fedgolfer]

... anyone's insight to Wholesale Inventories report on Monday would be helpful... how do the markets react to this in overbought situations??? And how big of a market influencer is this?

 

[Oldcoin]

... anyone's insight to Wholesale Inventories report on Monday would be helpful... how do the markets react to this in overbought situations??? And how big of a market influencer is this?

Wholesale Trade
Importance (A-F): This release merits a D-.
Source: The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce.
Release Time: 10:00 ET around the fifth business day of the month (data for two months prior).
Raw Data Available At: http://www.census.gov/svsd/www/mwts.html.
The wholesale trade report includes sales and inventory statistics from the second stage of the manufacturing process. The sales figures say close to nothing about personal consumption and therefore do not move the market.

Wholesale inventories sometimes swing enough to change the aggregate inventory profile (aggregate inventory is the sum of inventory at the manufacturing, wholesale, and retail levels), which may affect the GDP outlook. In that event they can elicit a small market reaction. More often than not, however, this release goes unnoticed except by market economists.


More in-depth information is available from Briefing.com, including "live" intra-day market analysis of the U.S. stock and bond markets, technology stocks, economic releases, earnings reports, and day trading highlights.

Not a real important release.....we've been overbought for quite awhile and the market has shaken off some bad numbers and kept moving up. Seems there is still money on the sidelines.

 

[fedgolfer]

... better late then never... thanks for the input Oldcoin... a bull I'll be.

 

[weatherweenie]

1:00 pm : The market continues to pullback ever so slightly as sellers return from the sidelines to selectively lock in some profits. Among the most noticeable areas to get hit within the last 30 minutes has been Materials since a strong greenback makes dollar-denominated assets such as gold and metals less attractive. The dollar has rallied sharply this afternoon, turning in its best performance against the yen in about two months, after Treasury Secretary Paulson earlier reiterated that a strong dollar is in the U.S. interest.

 

[Spaf]

Signing Off​

Will be closing out this weekly thread and starting a new one for next week.

Have been trying out what will hopefully be improvements to the Market Talk Thread.

Instead of using the C-fund [$SPX] as the model. Will be using what ever fund is leading for the year. As of lately it's been the I-fund [EFA].

Also the "Tin Box" will not show my position (who cares I'm in retirement) rather it will show the leaders here on TSPTalk as an average allocation and how they are represented in percentage of being bullish or bearish.

In addition, the "Tin Box" will have some items from the Stock Traders Almanac, noting credit to their publication.

If you have constructive ideas about the thread, please let me know!

Regards, and be careful out there!...........Spaf...........