Market Talk / Dec. 3 - 9

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You'll change the terrain if you kill enough of them - they'll understand the significance of that penalty.
 
Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
December 7, 2006 Closing ​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................We need some good data to get things moving!

Con-Yak...................................Tomorrows employment report?

Jester-Yak................................Bears: 49, Bulls: 51. Hmm, added a few more bears.

Doodles:
TSP Socks leader........................I-fund
Last 12 months..........................up 28.20%

Socks [EFA] Closed at.................73.33 up +0.25
Stops.......................................Alert: 72.63. Trail: 71.93
MACD hist.................................+0.150, increasing
Trend (P-SAR)............................positive.
Overbought/sold (RSI).................[70] 69.21 [30] increasing!

$USD........................................82.75 dn -0.02

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................62.49, up +0.30
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Green.

Tin Box:
TSP Allocation.............................No change.
 
08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.5. The S&P 500 futures are hovering just above fair value but Nasdaq 100 futures, amid disappointments in the semiconductor space, suggest a lower open for the tech-heavy index. Xilinx (XLNX) lowered its Q3 sales forecasts while National Semiconductor (NSM) also issued Q3 revenue guidance below consensus. Be that as it may, early indications at this point don't mean a whole lot as they are certainly subject to change when the closely-watched November employment report -- the last key piece of data before Tuesday's FOMC meeting -- is released at 8:30 ET. Given all of the sizable revisions to nonfarm payroll figures of late, the market will also be on guard for changes made to the October data.
 
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November payrolls rose by 132,00, well above the estimate of 110,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.5% from 4.4% in October, the Labor Department reported.
October's payrolls rose a revised 79,000, down from a previously reported 92,000.
With Federal Reserve policymakers meeting next Tuesday, markets are paying close attention to the data in an attempt to gather clues about where interest rates may be heading. Fed officials have been hiking rates for the past two years in an attempt to keep inflation in check without triggering a full-blown recession.

In the half year through October, an average of 138,000 jobs have been added to the economy each month and the unemployment rate has dropped to 4.4%, its lowest level since May 2001.
 
Weatherweenie,

This is good reporting on your part, and it is very helpful for those who don't have access to live T.V. Thank you! The comments I am hearing on Bloomberg TV are positive for the belief that the FED will most likely stay on hold next week because these econ. numbers are non-inflationary. Non-farm payrolls for the previous month were revised down ward, the unemployment rate rose from 4.4 to 4.5, and hourly earnings droped from .3% to .2%. We'll see what the market gives us going forward. Good Luck!
 
Friday, December 08, 2006

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Job growth continued at a steady moderate pace in November, the Labor Department said Friday. Nonfarm payrolls expanded by 132,000 in November higher than the 112,000 expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. The unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.5% in November from 4.4% - a five year low - in the previous month. Job growth in October and September were revised higher by a net 42,000 jobs. The increase in the unemployment rate was expected. Average hourly earnings increased 3 cents, or 0.2% to $16.94. Economists had been expecting a 0.3% gain. Earnings are up 4.1% in the past year. The average workweek held steady at 33.9 hours, also in line with Wall Street expectations. The factory workweek and overtime both declines in November.

A rate cut is now pretty much off the table. Shorting bonds was the right trade yesterday, although we await consumer sentiment at 10:00.

http://aheadofthenews.com/
 
Abby Joseph Cohen says the S&P will be at 1550 by the end of 2007 and the DJIA will be at 13,500. Frosty.
 
Birchtree said:
Abby Joseph Cohen says the S&P will be at 1550 by the end of 2007 and the DJIA will be at 13,500. Frosty.
Click to expand...

Plus she gave herself an valuation headwind. She added in interest rates rising 75pts. I just don't see interest rates rising that much if any at all. So her numbers for year end could very well be on the low side.

Double Snort.....
 
Market moving lower on this news....

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. consumer sentiment fell in December, a prelimiary report showed on Friday, as consumers pared back their views of future financial conditions.
The University of Michigan said its preliminary reading on consumer sentiment in December was 90.2, down from November's reading of 92.1.
The index had been expected to dip slightly to 92.0, according to a median forecast of Wall Street economists polled by Reuters.
The survey's index of current conditions rose to 108.2 in December from 106.0 in November, while consumer expectations dipped to 78.6 from 83.2 in November.
Consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, but in recent years confidence measures have been a weak guide to actual spending.
Consumers' expectations for increased inflation was little changed in December, the report said.
The University of Michigan's preliminary December reading on one-year U.S. inflation expectations was 3.0 percent, unchanged from 3.0 percent in November.
Median expectations for inflation over a five-year horizon nudged higher to 3.1 percent from 3.0 percent in November.
Copyright 2006 Reuters
 
Markets are fight back.

ATCJeff said:
Market moving lower on this news....

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. consumer sentiment fell in December, a prelimiary report showed on Friday, as consumers pared back their views of future financial conditions.
The University of Michigan said its preliminary reading on consumer sentiment in December was 90.2, down from November's reading of 92.1.
The index had been expected to dip slightly to 92.0, according to a median forecast of Wall Street economists polled by Reuters.
The survey's index of current conditions rose to 108.2 in December from 106.0 in November, while consumer expectations dipped to 78.6 from 83.2 in November.
Consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, but in recent years confidence measures have been a weak guide to actual spending.
Consumers' expectations for increased inflation was little changed in December, the report said.
The University of Michigan's preliminary December reading on one-year U.S. inflation expectations was 3.0 percent, unchanged from 3.0 percent in November.
Median expectations for inflation over a five-year horizon nudged higher to 3.1 percent from 3.0 percent in November.
Copyright 2006 Reuters
Click to expand...
 
If this week's 5-day intrady movement holds it's rounding top/dome formation, we're looking at a close around 1400 on the S&P... down around -.51% from yesterday's close at 1407.29. On the C-fund, that translates to a point between the 10 and 20 DMA, or $15.47. Could be a buy point, but the lower trendline may be the safer buy... should sit around ~$15.35. If it breaks that, one take on the elliott wave theory suggests a possible buy at the previous low in wave 4, which $15.26 established on Nov 27th.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^GSPC&t=5d
 
I would welcome a price of $15.47 for the close on the C fund - that was my DCA price two weeks ago. But I don't think I'm going to be that lucky again - I'll simply resign myself to pay more today. There is a strong possibility of some impulse lift off later today. Silver Bells.
 
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