Market Talk / Dec. 24 - 30

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Sunday Weekly
Early Edition
December 24, 2006 ​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Looks to be a normal correction, hopefully!

Con-Yak...................................Yea, but some folks are concerned about economic growth?

Jester-Yak................................What happened to the Santa Claus rally?

Doodles:
TSP Socks leader........................I-fund
Last 12 months..........................up 28.20%

Socks [EFA] Closed at.................72.38 dn -1.65 for the week.
Stops.......................................Alert: 73.63 broken. Trail: 72.93 broken.
MACD hist.................................-0.294, decreasing
Trend (P-SAR)............................negative.
Overbought/sold (RSI).................[70] 47.14 [30] decreasing!

$USD........................................83.80 dn -0.25 for the week.

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................62.41, dn -1.02 for the week...NYMEX
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Yellow.

Tin Box.
Leaders Tally (Allocation Avg.).......G:29, F=29, C=03, S=21, I=18
Leaders Play...............................Bullish: 43%...Bearish 57%.

TSP (week ending)......G=11.70..F=11.16..C=15.60..S=18.63..I=22.02
....(1 week Past)........G=11.69..F=11.17..C=15.78..S=18.94..I=22.07
....(2 week past)........G=11.68..F=11.17..C=15.58..S=18.91..I=21.71
....(3 week past)........G-11.67..F=11.23..C=15.43..S=18.70..I=21.54
....(4 week past)........G=11.66..F=11.15..C=15.47..S=18.78..I=21.31
....(12-30-2005).........G=11.16..F=10.67..C=13.55..S=16.27..I=17.59

Le Chart​

Chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com​

 

[Show-me]

CNBC broke that a 7.something earthquake off of Taiwan created a 3 foot tsunami headed for the Philippines.

There are many small islands there. Pray!

 

[VirginiaBob]

3 foot? Shouldn't be a problem since normal waves are 5'.

 

[nnuut]

Unfortunately it doesn't always work like that.

[SIZE=+2]Feature:[/SIZE] Pictures and video from the 2004 Sumatra tsunami highlighted the vast difference between tsunamis and wind generated waves. Because tsunamis have very long wavelengths they come ashore more like a long lasting flood wave rather than the breaking surf usually seen at the beach. This diagram illustrates the difference between tsunamis and wind waves when they come ashore.
​

http://www.ess.washington.edu/tsunami/index.html

 

[James48843]

Santa Claus appears:

S fund 4500 617.23 Up 2.45 (+0.40%)

S&P 500 (C Fund) 1,415.13 Up 4.37 (+0.31%)

EFA (I Fund) 72.57 Up 0.19 (+0.26%)

 

[nnuut]

I hope so, but over and over again I see the DUMB MONEY come on strong at the opening bell only to fade later in the day. Not meaning to Jinx the rally, no, no I take that back!:notrust:

 

[clester]

I noticed last week that while the malls were busy I didn't have trouble finding parking places this year. I was surprised that traffic was lighter than expected. Christmas eve was very light. No waiting in lines. How was your experience?

 

[James48843]

Well, I missed the cutoff time once again- off doing other surfing on the net.

I don't know what happened to Santa. He's really not makig much of an effort today.

I guess I'll just have to surf around and hope Santa make a big close today, and this week.

 

[nnuut]

I hope so, but over and over again I see the DUMB MONEY come on strong at the opening bell only to fade later in the day. Not meaning to Jinx the rally, no, no I take that back!:notrust:

Looks like Oil (energy) is saving the day! I love it!

 

[airlift]

I asked this question in the I-fund thread, but perhaps someone here might shed some light on this matter? Due to European markets being closed today, will we be buying the I fund today at Monday's or Friday's closing prices? Also, crude oil is dropping significantly today, and prior experience indicates that the EAFE is significantly affected by a drop in oil due to oil companies weighting. How do we sort this out in terms of the overseas makets behavior?

 

[nnuut]

I asked this question in the I-fund thread, but perhaps someone here might shed some light on this matter? Due to European markets being closed today, will we be buying the I fund today at Monday's or Friday's closing prices? Also, crude oil is dropping significantly today, and prior experience indicates that the EAFE is significantly affected by a drop in oil due to oil companies weighting. How do we sort this out in terms of the overseas makets behavior?

It seems that EFA is open today. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EFA&p=D&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p55192775979
So I would think if you bought today it would be a combo of Japan's close today and the other internationals close Friday if they were closed Yesterday and Today. All are part of the EFA.
Yes, I have seen oil prices effect the international markets when there is a big drop in prices, but as I remember mainly in Briton (BP) FTSE.

 

[airlift]

Nnuut,
Thanks for your answer. Let's hope we get a good follow through rally!

 

[airlift]

Regarding the Nasdaq, below I have decided to copy an opinion from someone who writes at RealMoney.com. It could help us decipher the next moves!

COPY:


"Sideways but Unwinding ...
Jack Steiman
12/26/06 1:17 PM EST
The stochastics on the 60-minute chart have gone from oversold with readings near 5 to neutral with a reading of 41 at 1:15 pm eastern. The Naz is up 6 points, but we've already unwound quite a bit, so it seems a move to the 20-day would be about the best the bulls could hope for near term at 2425. That level may be a struggle just to get to. Position: None"

 

[airlift]

Another opinion:

COPY:


"Naughty or Nice?
David Peltier
12/26/06 3:28 PM EST
We're in the second day of the 7-day period that the Stock Traders' Almanac refers to as the "Santa Claus Rally". Since 1950, the S&P 500 has gained an average of 1.5% during the last five trading days of December and the first two of January.
Even with today's gains, the S&P 500 remains lower from its Dec. 21 close. That said, the bulls should know that history is on their side for the chances of a reversal in the trend by Jan. 3.
The benchmark index has been in negative territory 5 times since 1997, and has ended the seven-day period higher in 4 of those occurrences. Position: none"

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
December 26, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Still in a pullback, hopefully light!

Con-Yak...................................You sure selling is exhausted because volume was light?

Jester-Yak................................Low lube is good lube!

Doodles:
TSP Socks leader........................I-fund
Last 12 months..........................up 28.20%

Socks [EFA] Closed at.................72.36 dn -0.02
Stops.......................................Alert: 73.63 broken. Trail: 72.93 broken
MACD hist.................................-0.120, decreasing
Trend (P-SAR)............................negative.
Overbought/sold (RSI).................[70] 63.95 [30] flat

$USD........................................84.06 up +0.26

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................61.10, dn -1.31
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Yellow.

Tin Box.
Leaders Tally (Allocation Avg.).......G=14, F=29, C=04, S=27, I=26
Leaders Play...............................Bullish: 57%...Bearish: 43%.

 

[James48843]

Santa is here.

 

[nnuut]

HO!, HO!, HO! Hope he sticks around!:cheesy:

 

[James48843]

Seems like a lot of the TSP TALK leaders are jumping back into the market today- with a heavy emphasis on "I' fund.

Hope the run lasts a couple days.

 

[James48843]

Another milestone we should make note of today:

There are now 2,500 message board registered users in TSPTALK.

Congrats to all who have found TSPTALK as a home, to learn, to play, and to work towards the future in making the most of our TSP.

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
December 27, 2006 Closing ​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Wow Santa's back!

Con-Yak...................................These are low volume days!

Jester-Yak................................Who was that masked man in the red suit?

Doodles:
TSP Socks leader........................I-fund
Last 12 months..........................up 28.20%

Socks [EFA] Closed at.................73.25 up +0.89
Stops.......................................Alert: 73.63 broken. Trail: 72.93
MACD hist.................................-0.057, increasing
Trend (P-SAR)............................positive.
Overbought/sold (RSI).................[70] 71.59 [30]

$USD........................................83.96 dn -0.10

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................60.34, dn -0.76
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Yellow.

Tin Box.
Leaders Tally (Allocation Avg.).......G=14, F=14, C=04, S=21, I=47
Leaders Play...............................Bullish: 72%...Bearish: 28%.