Market Talk

[Spaf]

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The Kingdom of TSP

Sunday-Weekly

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves, & Yak Date: July 3, 2005


Market News.

Kingdom Talk: Growers earnings season reports due. Krude is still loose. Rats have not been neutralized. Inflate is mildly puffing. Earnie will be leading the horsemen.

Elsewhere: Expect a big bang on the 4th., otherwise quiet!

Other News: -> http://wwwbriefing.com/SilverIndex.htm


Doodles, and Tea Leaves - Weekly picture.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closing at 1194.44, up +2.87
CMF (money flow) at -0.114, dn -0.065
RSI (strength) at 47.9, up +02.7
MACD (trend) at 1.74, dn -4.07

Nymex (Crude oil)
Closed at 58.75, dn -1.09

Insert: S&P (3mo) chart ending 07-01-05. Added: 20DayMA, RSI, MACD, and notes.

Tea leaves: Yellow (caution).


Yak.

Remarks: Friday, July 1, Stocks bounced off a double bottom. The "W" was not deep, with a shallow pivot point at 1201. Confirmation of higher than average volume is needed to confirm the trigger. Pricing is currently below the previous trading channel. Indicators are currently mixed. Energy remains a cautious factor (above 55): Friday last showed a 4% rise, in one day (Wow!). Trading opportunity are present, but IMHO: risky with the current TSP equity funds.

Holding: 100% G-fund.

Stops: NA

Weekly TSP Returns: G=+0.01, F=-0.05, C=+0.03, S=+0.27, I=-0.10


Rgds, and be careful! Spaf

 

[teknobucks]

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Coolhand stumbled on this article...

http://traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=37558

folks are more and more bearish every day and that is a good thing.

do not believe a major crash has occured "under bearish sentiment" ...the big downdrafts in the market have come from times of "over exuberant optimism".

 

[Spaf]

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Strategy Considerations

I have two questions. One concerns trading strategy, the 2nd is a math question. The strategy question concerns our TSP limited equity funds.

Please feel free to post comments, I'm sure others are interested!

1. Sucessful trading depends on:
a. The key is to buy when the market signals the start of a bull trend.
b. Select leading stocks that are outperforming the market.
c. Sell when the bull trend has ended, and
d. There are exceptions to this rule: Sell individual stocks if they move against the trend.
As of the end of June the 3 TSP equity funds performed (for the month):
C=+0.02, S=+0.49, and I=+0.28. The best performing equity TSP has for the last 30 days is the S-fund. The question is, if we don't have mid-caps to diversify with, or the other funds are not performing. Why not stay with the leader, the S-fund (when considering an advancing market)??

2. Question 2 is for an expert math member, and general information. The folks at ST are saying that credit interest for funds not invested, but in there account are at
1 1/4% for 30 days. What would this figure out annually??

Rgds :? Spaf

 

[tsptalk]

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teknobucks wrote:

folks are more and more bearish every day and that is a good thing.

It depends strongly on who is bearish. But it is true, both dumb and smart money bearish % went up. Interestingly, TSP Talk bears went down so far, however.

Latest readings:

Dumb money: 46% bullish, 29% bearish

Smart money: 32% bullish, 50% bearish

TSP Talk members: 41% bullish, 31% bearish (not completed yet).

 

[Spaf]

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The Kingdom of TSP July 3, 2005

Insert fault. Couldn't edit Insert, sorry for the loss of the file! Reinserted!

[Tom! Pls delete prior blank pic, when U can. Tks! :? Spaf]

 

[Mike]

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1 1/4% for 30 days? Is that APR? You might want to email them about that.

If they actually paid you 1 1/4% each month, that'd work out to a healthy return for the year. :shock:

 

[teknobucks]

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http://tinyurl.com/aml2l

http://stockwerld.com/supportandres.htm

 

[teknobucks]

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http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=6868049

 

[Dave M]

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Just take out your calculator and multiply 1.0125 times itself, twelve times. You'll get a number around 1.17 which says 17% on the year. This is on the order of what your credit card charges you. I'm with you, Mike; it is in error, obviously.

Spaf, I note you distinguish between "trading" and "investing." Since we cannot know in advance which of the funds isgoing to be the leader, I would say that successful investing requires diversification among all the funds. That way you always have some $$ in the leader, whichever it might be.

Dave

 

[Birchtree]

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DaveM,

I think I may know (guess) which fund will be the leader over the next couple of years. Growth has been the worst-performing equity style for five and a half years. As a contrarian post bubble 2000, my play is that large cap growth could have a few good years ahead. I think a change in strategy may transition to the C fund from the currently popular S fund, just when everyone has noticed how well it has been doing. If you look at some of the small cap graphs to include the Wilshire 4500 - there is a slight sense they are beginning to roll over - may only be temporary but my bet is on the C fund into the future.

After having invested in both these funds - primarily the C fund for many years - I believe the S fund has had its day in the sun and will eventually hit the invisible wall and give up outperformance to the C fund again. The S fund has had a nice run since 2001 when it became available - a good run in 2003 also and managed to tack on $1.12 in a 2 month period of time this year. I look for the C fund to take over the lead position. Gains such as 37% in 1995, 23% in 1996, 34% in 1997, 28% in 1998, and 2003 was also good. This is what I want to see repeated for the C fund going forward, therefore I'm 100% leveraged to the C fund. From 1194 to 1700 would be a nice bull phase for the sp500 and would give me a price of greater than $15.00 I would anticipate. That's when I plan to start stepping out gradually into the G fund. Wait on the next recession and start the process over. That'll be the time to get back into the S fund again. Time is the critical issue in dealing with these particular funds. You have to ride the cycles - covering the bases is one strategy - loading up on the potential winner is another strategy. I sure would like to catch and play the next 900 point banger - gotta keep them pistols oiled just in case.

 

[Birchtree]

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I forgot to mention George will be 59 on 7/6/05. May he have another 40 good years. Do ya'll think he'd let Laura run against Hillary in 08. That would be an exciting race. Laura Bush for President - sounds terrific.

 

[Spaf]

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Kind of got to agree with Birch on different strategy positions. Diversification, loading up on all bases does not seem to be a rewarding strategy. I'm not talking about investing, rather position trading. Position trading strategy requires the selection of the best performing funds.

Last month C=+0.02, S=+0.49, and I=+0.28

S might falter, but thats when we change positions.

I rechecked with my broker and they do pay 1 1/4% on funds in trading cash accounts. i.e. for 100K you would get $125 a month.

Rgds Spaf

 

[Dave M]

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Dig it. D

 

[pyriel]

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Birchtree wrote:

DaveM,

I think I may know (guess) which fund will be the leader over the next couple of years. Growth has been the worst-performing equity style for five and a half years. As a contrarian post bubble 2000, my play is that large cap growth could have a few good years ahead. I think a change in strategy may transition to the C fund from the currently popular S fund, just when everyone has noticed how well it has been doing. If you look at some of the small cap graphs to include the Wilshire 4500 - there is a slight sense they are beginning to roll over - may only be temporary but my bet is on the C fund into the future.

After having invested in both these funds - primarily the C fund for many years - I believe the S fund has had its day in the sun and will eventually hit the invisible wall and give up outperformance to the C fund again. The S fund has had a nice run since 2001 when it became available - a good run in 2003 also and managed to tack on $1.12 in a 2 month period of time this year. I look for the C fund to take over the lead position. Gains such as 37% in 1995, 23% in 1996, 34% in 1997, 28% in 1998, and 2003 was also good. This is what I want to see repeated for the C fund going forward, therefore I'm 100% leveraged to the C fund. From 1194 to 1700 would be a nice bull phase for the sp500 and would give me a price of greater than $15.00 I would anticipate. That's when I plan to start stepping out gradually into the G fund. Wait on the next recession and start the process over. That'll be the time to get back into the S fund again. Time is the critical issue in dealing with these particular funds. You have to ride the cycles - covering the bases is one strategy - loading up on the potential winner is another strategy. I sure would like to catch and play the next 900 point banger - gotta keep them pistols oiled just in case.

Birch, as much as i'd like to agree with you, my reading (how limited they are) is telling me something different. I think the s fund has some more fuel in its gas tank. Tech and energy sector will continue to propel the s fun forward. P

 

[Guest]

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Birchtree wrote:

I forgot to mention George will be 59 on 7/6/05. May he have another 40 good years. Do ya'll think he'd let Laura run against Hillary in 08. That would be an exciting race. Laura Bush for President - sounds terrific.

Dave M wrote:

Dig it. D

I AGREE!

 

[grandma]

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Wonder Woman wrote:

Birchtree wrote:

I forgot to mention George will be 59 on 7/6/05. May he have another 40 good years. Do ya'll think he'd let Laura run against Hillary in 08. That would be an exciting race. Laura Bush for President - sounds terrific.

Dave M wrote:

Dig it. D

I AGREE!

what are the similarities between Rosie the Riveter and Hillary??

 

[Spaf]

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You never saw what she made for Bill???!!! :shock:

 

[Guest]

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Spaf wrote:

You never saw what she made for Bill???!!! :shock:

Good one Spaf!

 

[Birchtree]

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Pyriel,

There is certainly still fuel left in the tank - only now it is not a full tank. The performance between S and C will begin to reverse. Here is an example of how a contrarian thinks : The Value Line Airthmetic Index, an equal-weighted index of 1700 stocks, has risen by 68% over the past five years, compared with the sp500's 17% loss. This situation is in transition to change. I'll take the slow boat from this point on as the waters become shallow. The sp500 is a late expansion play. I'm getting ready to elaborate some depth on my account talk.

 

[Guest]

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grandma wrote:

what are the similarities between Rosie the Riveter and Hillary??

Generally Grandma, "Rosie the Riveter" symbolizesa strong woman capable of doing a "man's job," among other things.