Market Talk

[teknobucks]

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so now we wait for the markets to tank or....................

tekno

 

[teknobucks]

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stuff 2 read:


Real Estate: A Different Look
by David Yu
June 26, 2005
http://www.[[financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/yu/2005/0626.html

The Core Rate
by Jim Puplava
June 24, 2005
http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/2005/0624.html

Three Great Big Lies
by Jim Willie CB
June 24, 2005
http://www.[[financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/2005/0624.html

A Brief Update on Dow Theory
by Tim W. Wood
June 24, 2005
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

 

[robo]

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Ted Wrote:

What is the look up symbol for the S-fund, on barchart.com?

This is agreat place to track the S fund (Wilshire 4500), if you want live data all day.

http://www.wilshire.com/Indexes/Broad/Wilshire4500

 

[James48843]

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Asia is bouncing back tonight- most up.

Despite $60 oil, Asian markets seem to be recovering.

Is our S&P slide overwith?

Or just slowing down before accelerating downward again?

Jeeze- got me sitting and watching from the sidelines, scratching my head.

I'm banking we still have more downward room to go.....

 

[Birchtree]

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James48843,

There would be nothing controversial if you did some buying on the way down - that way you get some accumulation even if you don't score the exact bottom. And then you can nibble on the way back up. That is basically what dollar cost averaging does - you take the odds as they are presented - follow the market rather than try to lead the direction. It's a lot simpler - but if you prefer to shoot with pistols good luck.

 

[Spaf]

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Fundamentals are basically good, however Krude is dragging the buyers down; behavior. Indicators and oscillators are not good as of lately. The trend is down!

Hey Tekno! I got a flying pig for ya!

Sorry Tekno! Tom has my attachments all red x-ed!

 

[grandma]

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- This one came thru - if you needed another `when pigs can fly'

picture.... NOt that quantity increases potentiality in this case.....

 

[mlk_man]

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I have a bunch of flying pig images that someone sent me if you want them.........

Good morning greg.............

 

[The_Technician]

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I see the M3 money supply in the euro has been rising.....news is ....lack of confidence that the interest rates will not change due to the rise....but the supply increase will promote inflationary pressures.....looking for the euro to get cheaper in value which in turn affects the I fund......I believe the cheaper euro will make the dollar value higher and that makes the I fund less attractive.....

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20050628/bs_afp/ecbbankeurozone_

050628113318;_ylt=ArESDkcH3dTaj9DNceKGsxWmOrgF;_

ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl

 

[The_Technician]

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Current market trends in the past indicate that a settling time is normal after this break we just had from 1210+....meaning patience is key here and not to be prudent to jump right back in the market. July historically hasn't been a great month.....

Past history suggest for the maket to rebound slightly but overall degrade until early Aug...then the market should be ready for a rebound.....albeit temporary given current economic conditions.....

F fund is peaking right now and will be declining for a bit....

G is a good befor the time being....

I fund will be affected by the Euro M3 increase....

Wal mart has laid off 100's of workers, same for Home Depot.....I'm sure other chain stores have done similar to reduce costs and to hold up the bottom line....

Commodity prices are peaking, inflation affecting pricing on everything...economic stall coming forth....:?

Fuel costs is up and future oil prices will remain high for several years, pubic is trapped forbuying essential gas ....for the holidays.....less money for buying gifts....:?

Many others that I have talked with believe the markets will erode for a couple of years due to the high energy costs, I agree with them......could be the markets will not rebound from soon to be decline until later 2007....:?

Other than that, its sunshining....:^

:dude:

 

[grandma]

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This came in the mail this morning from Biznetnews:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000177&sid=aCfxBZvYZxsA&refer=market_insight

 

[vectorman]

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Looking back, the DJIA doesn't really seem to be going to new highs all that quick.

 

[teknobucks]

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vectorman wrote:

Looking back, the DJIA doesn't really seem to be going to new highs all that quick.

yeah but it sure as heck is not crashing either....WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!

 

[teknobucks]

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grandma wrote:

- This one came thru - if you needed another `when pigs can fly'

picture.... NOt that quantity increases potentiality in this case.....

granny if u have one with lipstick on it....that would work. LOL

 

[Birchtree]

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Vectorman,

Such a very pretty graph - I can see a move similar to 2003 starting anytime and pushing the Dow to 13,000. The previous high was 11,723 made 1/14/04. The DTA put in a new all-time high on 3/8/05 of 3872.17. IF the Dow would give us a good strong rally from here to a new all-time high it would be construed as a primary confirmation of the DTA according to Dow Theory Principles. Begging the question what are the chances the DJIA can confirm the DTA on the upside by making a new all-time high? Depends on the Fed at this point. I'm glad I'm sitting in the C fund just in case we get an explosive move no one believes - that's the way it usually happens. The DTA is actually acting very nice today - managed to hold above its most recent closing low of 3382.89 made on 4/15/05. Came down to 3395.84 on the close yesterday. I'd say that is close enough for government work. The Dow also managed to hold support yesterday above 10251, but only barely at 10290, although the intra day low was 10253. It's a good thing we don't accept intra day lows because the DTA actually dropped below it previous with a value of 3382.14 - that close would have been ominous indeed.

I may end up getting back my money I gave up last week - as soon as I get all the darts out of my back. The advance/decline line feels healthy today. Hopefully see you at higher levels before the week is over.

 

[Spaf]

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Just wanted to see how the attachments were doing!

Rats, still being blocked! :X

 

[The_Technician]

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Wonder why you haven't moved from the C fund yetBirch........C fund is in the red since 24 May....:shock:.....and you want to stay for more???? If you're gonna lock down for little or no gain...go to G fund....at least it doesn't have the risk!!!!:^

:dude:

 

[Birchtree]

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The Technician,

I went long the C fund on5/4/05 at $12.60, and currently as of yesterday was up $.20 and will be up considerably more by the end of the week. On 6/17 I was ahead $.48 and managed to give over half that back last week. Today should present with some gains and then there is tomorrow. I'm not ready for the G fund - that will come from much higher levels - I don't think there is any room left in the shelter anyway.

 

[learning]

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I am not able to watch the market much right now. I have been in and out so much. I may not be able to trade much for several weeks. I have hopes of being able to though. I went100% G tomorrow. I do believe that it will be a good day tomorrow. Then Thursday probley a hit and a hit on Friday.

Why the prediction? The Fed. I suspect that people will buy to the Fed metting and then sell after. Just a pattern I have been wanting to see.

 

[Birchtree]

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Learning,

For your benefit I hope you score - but for my benefit I'm ready for lift off - if the Fed provides a pause or gives direction when the pause will come - we are probably headed much higher over the summer. I don't want to say explosive but certainly could be a very healthy move especially if volume kicks in.