Market Talk / Jan. 21 - 27

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Sunday Weekly
Early Edition
January 21, 2007​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................US socks generally held their gains.

Con-Yak....................................Keep an eye on the earnings!

Jester-Yak................................Strong headwinds, watch out for selling.

Doodles:
US socks ended flat for the week, international slightly up.
Stops......................................Alert (-1%).....Trail (-2%)
.....$SPX..................................1417..............1403
.....IJR.....................................66.26 broken....65.56
.....EFA....................................72.99.............72.29

Dollar.......................................84.87 dn -0.07 for the week...$USD

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at..............51.99, dn -1.00 for the week...NYMEX
Oil Markers................................<60= ok, 60-65= worry, >65= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Yellow.

Tin Box.
Leaders Ratio / Top 10 (7+3).........3.8 ......2.0 ......0.4 ......1.4 .....2.4 ....06 leaders
Leaders Ratio / Top 10 (10)...........6.0 ......0.9 ......0.3 ......1.3 .....1.5 ....07 leaders
Leaders Play...............................G-fund, F-fund, C-fund, S-fund, I-fund

Courtesy of Rokid's Weekly Account Tally​

TSP (week ending)......G=11.74..F=11.15..C=15.84..S=18.98..I=22.33
....(1 week past)........G=11.73..F=11.14..C=15.84..S=19.08..I=22.14
....(2 week past)........G=11.72..F=11.19..C=15.60..S=18.58..I=21.99
....(3 week past)........G=11.71..F=11.14..C=15.69..S=18.76..I=22.22..end of 06
....(4 week past)........G=11.70..F=11.16..C=15.60..S=18.63..I=22.02

Le Charts​

Charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com​

 

[robo]

Friday, January 19, 2007

Video Technical Analysis of Stock Market 1/19/07
Technical analysis video review of the stock market and individual stocks for Friday January 19. 2007 including; Nasdaq 100 Trust Shares (NASDAQ:QQQQ), S&P 500 Index (AMEX:SPY), Semiconductor HOLDRs (AMEX:SMH), MidCap SPDRs (ETF) (Public, AMEX;MDY), eBay Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:EBAY) and United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (Public, AMEX:USO). Trend analysis for daytraders and swingtraders of stocks and options. Trading stocks involves risk; this information should not be viewed as trading recommendations.


http://alphatrends.blogspot.com/2007/01/video-technical-analysis-of-stock_19.html

 

[Show-me]

http://www.pbs.org/nbr/info/video.html

Check out the "Weekly Market Monitor".

 

[Pilgrim]

Federal Reserve board member Janet Yellen is scheduled to give a speech about the economy sometime today. Anyone know when?

 

[fedgolfer]

... looks like the intraday bottoms are beginning to round in the USMs. Hopefully a dead cat bounce for tomorrow.

 

[nnuut]

Federal Reserve board member Janet Yellen is scheduled to give a speech about the economy sometime today. Anyone know when?

San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen is slated to speak about the economy to the Rotary Club in Reno, Nevada, at 3:20 p.m. New York time.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a0KRuB73H8rg&refer=us

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
January 22, 2007 Closing ​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Had to thin out the heard.

Con-Yak...................................Them techs are hurting!

Jester-Yak................................Who's in charge?

Doodles:
Socks ended dn for the day.
Stops.......................................Alert (-1%)...Trail (-2%)
.....$SPX..1422.95......................1417...........1403
.....IJR........65.32......................66.26 broken..65.56 broken
.....EFA.......73.32......................72.99 ..........72.29

Dollar........................................85.03 up +0.16 for the day.

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at...............51.13, dn -0.86 for the day.
Oil Markers.................................<60= ok, 60-65= worry, >65= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles................................Yellow.

Tin Box.
Leaders Ratio / Top 10 .................5.0 ......0.5 ......0.5 ......2.0 .....2.0 ....07 leaders
Leaders Play................................G-fund, F-fund, C-fund, S-fund, I-fund

 

[weatherweenie]

Texas Instruments (TXN), which topped the fourth quarter consensus EPS estimate by a penny, is the latest technology company to feed the slowdown concerns as its revenue guidance for the first quarter was below street expectations. Additionally, the company conceded that it is operating in an environment where customers want lower levels of inventory and where growth in the wireless market is skewed to low-end, basic feature phones.
TXN for its part is indicated to open higher thanks to a Merrill Lynch upgrade to Buy from Neutral, yet its coattails are proving short as the tech sector is expected to be a drag again on the broader market.

 

[weatherweenie]

S&P futures vs fair value: -1.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.2. Early indications suggest Monday's weakness may carry over into this morning's open. Dow components DuPont (DD) and United Technologies (UTX) are just a couple of the large-cap names that either met or exceeded consensus earnings estimates today. Be that as it may, with such a dark cloud still hanging over the influential sector that is Technology, some more evidence feeding slowdown concerns is acting as an overhang.
Texas Instruments (TXN) topped expectations but guided Q1 revenues below street expectations, Alcatel-Lucent (ALU) warned it won't make a profit in Q4 and Tellabs (TLAB) guided Q1 revenues below consensus estimates.

 

[weatherweenie]

Tech was this year's best performing S&P 500 sector (+3.9%) one week ago today but underlying nervousness contributed to pushing it into negative territory for the year yesterday.

 

[weatherweenie]

S&P futures vs fair value: -0.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.5. Futures trade has improved since the last update but still points to a lower start for stocks. The lack of notable economic data to provide further evidence that the Fed has successfully managed a soft landing appears to be placing more emphasis on guidance that so far is a mixed bag at best. A 1.8% surge in oil prices to $53.50/bbl, albeit still at a manageable level, is also contributing to some hesitation on the part of buyers. But investors still rotating out of seasonally weak tech names may in turn find beaten-down areas like Energy, with leadership potential, more attractive.

 

[fedgolfer]

VIX is either incorrect on Yahoo or its off the charts. Up 60%!

http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#chart1:symbol=^vix;range=5d;indicator=sma(20,50,200)+psar+bollinger+stochasticfast;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;logscale=on;source=undefined

 

[mlk_man]

Holy VIXamatic Batman!! :nuts:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^VIX

 

[airlift]

I don't know what is going on but a few minutes ago I refreshed the six moth VIX daily chart at Stockcharts.com and it had shot up to a reading of 27.32 as intraday high. An aberration I guess?

VIX is either incorrect on Yahoo or its off the charts. Up 60%!

http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#chart1:symbol=^vix;range=5d;indicator=sma(20,50,200)+psar+bollinger+stochasticfast;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;logscale=on;source=undefined

 

[fedgolfer]

its at 153% now, something has to be wrong, we would see red all over the boards.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^GSPC,^DWCP,EFA,AGG,^VIX&d=s

 

[fedgolfer]

I'd like to hear someone's opionion in the trading pit. Hopefully an article or some news will hit regarding it before the IFT deadline.

 

[airlift]

Is this a new forward-looking indicator?

 

[Pilgrim]

whatever it was it has fixed itself, up only about 1/2 percent

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^vix+^ftse+^gdaxi+^dji+^gspc+^dwcpf+efa+agg&d=t

 

[Birchtree]

Well, the VIX did rise during the 1996 to 1998 advances. Our inhouse expert on the VIX hit the panic button to the G fund - somewhat impetuous I think.

 

[airlift]

Interesting, but if you are referring to Ayla I can't blame him because he is only testing VIX theory and behavior. I think so anyway!