Market Talk / Jan. 7 - 13

[350zCommTech]

Somebody just pushed the "BUY" button.

 

[Birchtree]

Yes, the bull is going to show the Lilly Padders some character today. Ferdinand is not a mollusk.

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
January 10, 2007 Closing ​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................US socks post modest gains!

Con-Yak...................................But still in the trading range.

Jester-Yak................................EFA ain't felling good?

Doodles:
US socks ended up for the day.
Stops.......................................Alert (-1%).....Trail (-2%)
.....$SPX..1414.85......................1413.............1399
.....IJR........65.23......................66.26 broken....65.56 broken
.....EFA.......71.82......................72.60 broken....71.90 broken

Dollar.......................................85.10 up +0.35 for the day.

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................54.02, dn -1.62 for the day.
Oil Markers................................<60= ok, 60-65= worry, >65= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Yellow.

Tin Box.
Leaders Ratio / Top 10 (7+3).........4.8 ......1.0 ......1.4 ......1.4 .....1.2
Leaders Play...............................G-fund, F-fund, C-fund, S-fund, I-fund

 

[Wheels]

Re: Daily Yak

Tin Box.
Leaders Tally / Top 10 (7+3).........5.........1..........2.........2.........1
Leaders Play...............................G-fund, F-fund, C-fund, S-fund, I-fund

A few questions about the Tin Box. I know much of this was discussed elsewhere so I apologize for making you repeat yourself.

How far back does it look at the leaders? Is this the same thing that Mad Dog was working on? How often is it updated? What does the (7+3) represent? Why are there 11 even though it says Top 10?

That's enough for now.

Thanks.

 

[350zCommTech]

Somebody just pushed the "BUY" button.

I knew something was fishy...http://www.etfdigest.com/daveDaily.php

Could somebody explain to me how to post an jpg image?

thanks

 

[Spaf]

Re: Daily Yak

A few questions about the Tin Box. I know much of this was discussed elsewhere so I apologize for making you repeat yourself.

How far back does it look at the leaders?
It uses rokids tally. The positions should be YTD

Is this the same thing that Mad Dog was working on?
I think MD was using 10 then went to using 20.

How often is it updated?
Daily, using IFT's
Weekly using rokids tally (The Jan. tally was skewed, so its using folks from the last one in Dec.(12-29-06 archive))

What does the (7+3) represent?
7 leaders in the 1st and 2nd decile, plus the top 3 new folks.

Why are there 11 even though it says Top 10?
350z suggested using the number of people and where they were at rather than percentage. The multi fund IFT was throwing me off, thats where the 11 came from. So I had to go back to a ratio that represented 10. I couldn't get aroun not using a fraction. I also updated todays Tin Box.

That's enough for now.

Thanks.
U welcome

 

[Spaf]

I knew something was fishy...http://www.etfdigest.com/daveDaily.php

Could somebody explain to me how to post an jpg image?

thanks

Pictures

Attach a picture the way that you have been by going to the manage attachments section below the message creation box.
After picture is uploaded, close the attachments box.
Next click on the paper clip icon in the message creation box to bring up a drop down menu with your uploaded file(s).
Click on the filename for your picture and it gets inserted into the body of your message.

View attachment 1284​

 

[Fivetears]

...or put the filename.jpg / filename.gif complete web link copied from your web browser address box, between the HTML Code "

" ; (quotes removed)
Keypunch required.

 

[350zCommTech]

Thanks Spaf,

Lets give it a try.
http://www.etfdigest.com/daveDaily.php

View attachment 1285

 

[airlift]

SPAF,
i don't know for how long you have been enamored with these specimens. Howerver, i am i under the impression that these are mild looking Teddy bears, but with a wild wwing towards animal life. Look at the Russian Bear for a surprise!

 

[robo]

Wednesday, January 10, 2007
When You Come To A Fork In The Road Take It



As of the market close on 1/10/07:


IT Market Barometer = +4 (scale of -10 to +10)
Model Portfolio = Long QQQQ (@ market open 1/11)


The current state of the market reminds me of that famous saying by Yogi Berra, "When you come to a fork in the road take it". That's because this market has clearly come to a fork in the road and I am getting all kinds of conflicting signals in regard to the near term direction.
For instance, my options sentiment indicator shown above gave a sell signal today as the blue line not only dropped below the upper read band, but also broke it's uptrend line. That is indicative of bulls throwing in the towel and typically leads to a sharp decline in the near-term. The problem is that at the same time my intermediate-term market barometer has improved to a +4 signal which is a buy signal. One of these is going to end up being a whipsaw, the question is which one?
This market has been a tough nut to crack lately, with growth stocks tanking in December but the market being led higher by defensive sectors, and now the resurgence of growth stocks lead by AAPL. Meanwhile breadth has been anemic, and sentiment has been oscillating wildly as seen by frequent huge shifts in polls such as Rasmussen.

A few days back I posted a blog entry titled "The Bull Case", where I noted that liquidity is soaring higher, and mutual fund flows are showing much skepticism and distrust of this market on the part of small investors. Also of note is the fact that two of the indicators that called the NDX top in November, the SMS sentiment poll (when it reached 70% Nasdaq bulls), and the COT data for the NDX E-mini (when it showed Small Speculators 88% net long), have now reached the opposite extremes with SMS at 24% Nasdaq bulls, and the NDX E-mini Small Speculators at 30% net long.

So, I have to give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls at this point, but I am very alert to the potential for a whipsaw here. Call me a very cautious and uneasy bull at this point primarily due to today's sell signal from my options sentiment indicator.
posted by zentrader at 9:24 PM

http://www.zentrader13.blogspot.com/

 

[Spaf]

Wednesday, January 10, 2007
When You Come To A Fork In The Road Take It

Call me a very cautious and uneasy bull at this point primarily due to today's sell signal from my options sentiment indicator.

Dear Mr. cautious and uneasy bull:....

Bull Report!​

The pasture has become soggy!....

C-fund advances are weak, besides being stuck in a trading range of 1407-1430, approximately. Don't know which way she's going! See attached chart.

S-fund is languishing below support levels, a bummer! 911 has been called!

I-fund, poor EFA is sick! Not only that, she is being kicked around by the rising US dollar.

F-fund is chasing her tail not knowing which way to dodge the Fed.

G-fund, well at least it's safe haven, maybe why almost half of the TSPTalk leaders are sitting on the lilly pad.

Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com
[annotations added]​

 

[Show-me]

What just happened in Europe? Markets are dropping quickly.

 

[ATCJeff]

What just happened in Europe? Markets are dropping quickly.

I do not see anything in the headlines...... Maybe they went out for lunch....

 

[weatherweenie]

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.0. Early indications point to a slightly higher start for equities. Genentech (DNA) topped Wall Street estimates and raised its guidance while oil prices plunging another 1%, after falling as low as $52.92/bbl overnight, are also contributing to the positive disposition. It is worth noting, however, that the ongoing slide in crude still isn't being fully embraced by the market as the bullish catalyst that it is since falling oil prices also threaten the earnings potential of the Energy sector. Energy has been the biggest reason over the last several quarters behind the S&P 500's ability to generate double-digit profit growth.

 

[mlk_man]

Did the European Fed just meet?

 

[mlk_man]

Here it is:

http://money.cnn.com/2007/01/11/new...england.reut/index.htm?postversion=2007011107

 

[The_Technician]

What just happened in Europe? Markets are dropping quickly.

BoE raised their rates unexpectantly....5.25%....weakened the dollar against the Euro...

 

[weatherweenie]

08:33 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.5. Futures trade has weakened since the last update and now suggest a lower start for stocks, as investors who are cognizant the Fed is also watching labor cost trends in the U.S. closely continue to grapple with an unexpected rate hike from the Bank of England due in part to curb wage-based inflation. Meanwhile, investors are sifting through today's only scheduled economic report. Initial claims fell 26K to 299K (consensus 320K), suggesting labor conditions remain strong.

 

[Birchtree]

Today would be excellent for the Dow to use the last trading hour to punch over 12,600. That would get some attention. The buying power is available and with oil prices dropping there should be no hold back. GDP is OK and inflation will remain benign. Lift off. Snort.