350zCommTech
Well-known member
Somebody just pushed the "BUY" button.
-
The Forum works well on MOBILE devices without an app: Just go to: https://forum.tsptalk.com
-
Please read our AutoTracker policy on the IFT deadline and remaining active. Thanks!
div>
$ - Premium Service Content (Info) | AutoTracker Monthly Winners | Is Gmail et al, Blocking Our emails?
Find us on: Facebook & X | Posting Copyrighted Material
Join the TSP Talk AutoTracker: How to Get Started | Login | Main AutoTracker Page
The Forum works well on MOBILE devices without an app: Just go to: https://forum.tsptalk.com ...
Or you can now use TapaTalk again!Market Talk / Jan. 7 - 13
- Thread starter Spaf
- Start date
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
Daily Yak
The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
January 10, 2007 Closing
Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box
Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................US socks post modest gains!
Con-Yak...................................But still in the trading range.
Jester-Yak................................EFA ain't felling good?
Doodles:
US socks ended up for the day.
Stops.......................................Alert (-1%).....Trail (-2%)
.....$SPX..1414.85......................1413.............1399
.....IJR........65.23......................66.26 broken....65.56 broken
.....EFA.......71.82......................72.60 broken....71.90 broken
Dollar.......................................85.10 up +0.35 for the day.
Lube (NYM) Closed at..................54.02, dn -1.62 for the day.
Oil Markers................................<60= ok, 60-65= worry, >65= panic.
Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Yellow.
Tin Box.
Leaders Ratio / Top 10 (7+3).........4.8 ......1.0 ......1.4 ......1.4 .....1.2
Leaders Play...............................G-fund, F-fund, C-fund, S-fund, I-fundRe: Daily Yak
A few questions about the Tin Box. I know much of this was discussed elsewhere so I apologize for making you repeat yourself.
How far back does it look at the leaders? Is this the same thing that Mad Dog was working on? How often is it updated? What does the (7+3) represent? Why are there 11 even though it says Top 10?
That's enough for now.
Thanks.
350zCommTech
Well-known member
I knew something was fishy...http://www.etfdigest.com/daveDaily.php
Could somebody explain to me how to post an jpg image?
thanksLast edited:
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
Re: Daily Yak
How far back does it look at the leaders?
It uses rokids tally. The positions should be YTD
Is this the same thing that Mad Dog was working on?
I think MD was using 10 then went to using 20.
How often is it updated?
Daily, using IFT's
Weekly using rokids tally (The Jan. tally was skewed, so its using folks from the last one in Dec.(12-29-06 archive))
What does the (7+3) represent?
7 leaders in the 1st and 2nd decile, plus the top 3 new folks.
Why are there 11 even though it says Top 10?
350z suggested using the number of people and where they were at rather than percentage. The multi fund IFT was throwing me off, thats where the 11 came from. So I had to go back to a ratio that represented 10. I couldn't get aroun not using a fraction. I also updated todays Tin Box.
That's enough for now.
Thanks.
U welcome
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
Pictures
Attach a picture the way that you have been by going to the manage attachments section below the message creation box.
After picture is uploaded, close the attachments box.
Next click on the paper clip icon in the message creation box to bring up a drop down menu with your uploaded file(s).
Click on the filename for your picture and it gets inserted into the body of your message.
350zCommTech
Well-known member
Last edited:
robo
Well-known member
Wednesday, January 10, 2007
When You Come To A Fork In The Road Take It
As of the market close on 1/10/07:
IT Market Barometer = +4 (scale of -10 to +10)
Model Portfolio = Long QQQQ (@ market open 1/11)
The current state of the market reminds me of that famous saying by Yogi Berra, "When you come to a fork in the road take it". That's because this market has clearly come to a fork in the road and I am getting all kinds of conflicting signals in regard to the near term direction.
For instance, my options sentiment indicator shown above gave a sell signal today as the blue line not only dropped below the upper read band, but also broke it's uptrend line. That is indicative of bulls throwing in the towel and typically leads to a sharp decline in the near-term. The problem is that at the same time my intermediate-term market barometer has improved to a +4 signal which is a buy signal. One of these is going to end up being a whipsaw, the question is which one?
This market has been a tough nut to crack lately, with growth stocks tanking in December but the market being led higher by defensive sectors, and now the resurgence of growth stocks lead by AAPL. Meanwhile breadth has been anemic, and sentiment has been oscillating wildly as seen by frequent huge shifts in polls such as Rasmussen.
A few days back I posted a blog entry titled "The Bull Case", where I noted that liquidity is soaring higher, and mutual fund flows are showing much skepticism and distrust of this market on the part of small investors. Also of note is the fact that two of the indicators that called the NDX top in November, the SMS sentiment poll (when it reached 70% Nasdaq bulls), and the COT data for the NDX E-mini (when it showed Small Speculators 88% net long), have now reached the opposite extremes with SMS at 24% Nasdaq bulls, and the NDX E-mini Small Speculators at 30% net long.
So, I have to give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls at this point, but I am very alert to the potential for a whipsaw here. Call me a very cautious and uneasy bull at this point primarily due to today's sell signal from my options sentiment indicator.
posted by zentrader at 9:24 PM
http://www.zentrader13.blogspot.com/
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
Dear Mr. cautious and uneasy bull:....
Bull Report!
The pasture has become soggy!....
C-fund advances are weak, besides being stuck in a trading range of 1407-1430, approximately. Don't know which way she's going! See attached chart.
S-fund is languishing below support levels, a bummer! 911 has been called!
I-fund, poor EFA is sick! Not only that, she is being kicked around by the rising US dollar.
F-fund is chasing her tail not knowing which way to dodge the Fed.
G-fund, well at least it's safe haven, maybe why almost half of the TSPTalk leaders are sitting on the lilly pad.
ATCJeff
Well-known member
Last edited:
weatherweenie
Well-known member
08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.0. Early indications point to a slightly higher start for equities. Genentech (DNA) topped Wall Street estimates and raised its guidance while oil prices plunging another 1%, after falling as low as $52.92/bbl overnight, are also contributing to the positive disposition. It is worth noting, however, that the ongoing slide in crude still isn't being fully embraced by the market as the bullish catalyst that it is since falling oil prices also threaten the earnings potential of the Energy sector. Energy has been the biggest reason over the last several quarters behind the S&P 500's ability to generate double-digit profit growth.
The_Technician
Active member
BoE raised their rates unexpectantly....5.25%....weakened the dollar against the Euro...
weatherweenie
Well-known member
08:33 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.5. Futures trade has weakened since the last update and now suggest a lower start for stocks, as investors who are cognizant the Fed is also watching labor cost trends in the U.S. closely continue to grapple with an unexpected rate hike from the Bank of England due in part to curb wage-based inflation. Meanwhile, investors are sifting through today's only scheduled economic report. Initial claims fell 26K to 299K (consensus 320K), suggesting labor conditions remain strong.
Birchtree
Well-known member
Today would be excellent for the Dow to use the last trading hour to punch over 12,600. That would get some attention. The buying power is available and with oil prices dropping there should be no hold back. GDP is OK and inflation will remain benign. Lift off. Snort.Similar threads
Maybe they went out for lunch....