fabijo
Well-known member
Maybe tired enough to pause at 1460 to smell the flowers.
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Market Talk / April 15th - April 21st
- Thread starter Spaf
- Start date
Maybe tired enough to pause at 1460 to smell the flowers.
weatherweenie
Well-known member
Briefing.com:
09:40 am : Less than a week after the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq finally got back to levels prior to the global sell-off on February 27 tied to a possible unwinding of the yen carry trade, all three indices this morning are succumbing to the resurfacing of similar concerns. This time around, higher than expected GDP and CPI reports from China have provoked fears of a possible rate hike, which may in turn lead to a resurgence in risk aversion similar to that exhibited throughout the month of March.
While it is likely investors would be taking money off the table anyway today, with the Dow posting its 13th gain in 14 days and closing at record levels, a sense the market is overextended has been exacerbated by the sell-off in Asian markets and overshadowing another round of better than expected earnings reports.
09:40 am : Less than a week after the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq finally got back to levels prior to the global sell-off on February 27 tied to a possible unwinding of the yen carry trade, all three indices this morning are succumbing to the resurfacing of similar concerns. This time around, higher than expected GDP and CPI reports from China have provoked fears of a possible rate hike, which may in turn lead to a resurgence in risk aversion similar to that exhibited throughout the month of March.
While it is likely investors would be taking money off the table anyway today, with the Dow posting its 13th gain in 14 days and closing at record levels, a sense the market is overextended has been exacerbated by the sell-off in Asian markets and overshadowing another round of better than expected earnings reports.
weatherweenie
Well-known member
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Google Inc., the No. 1 Internet search provider, late Thursday reported first-quarter profit jumped 69% as it expanded its lead in the global market for Internet search advertising. For the period ended March 7, Google said net income jumped to $1 billion, or $3.18 a share, from the $592 million and $1.95 a share a year earlier. Sales rose 62% to $3.66 billion. Excluding payments Google makes to its advertising partners, net sales rose 66% to $2.53 billion, slightly beating analyst expectations of $2.49 billion.
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
April 19, 2007 Closing
Daily Edition
April 19, 2007 Closing
Yak, Le Charts, Doodles, Tea Leaves, The Tally Can and The Barn Yard
Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................SPX remains bullish trading above the 13d and 50d MA.
Con-Yak...................................SPX is in a pause/pullback. Price is high. Stochastic K under D = weak bearish, overbought, upward movement slipping.
Jester-Yak................................Who let the bears in?
Doodles:
Stops.......................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX........1470.73 -1.77.........1458.............1444
Dollar........................................81.64 -0.06 for the day.
Lube (NYMEX) Closed at...............61.83 -1.30 for the day.
Oil Markers.................................<60= ok, 60-65= worry, >65= panic.
Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Yellow.
Tally Can
TSP Funds..................................G-fund, F-fund, C-fund, S-fund, I-fund.
Top 10 last 12 mo........................4.3 ......1.0 ......0.0 .....1.5 ......3.3
Today........................................2 made IFT(s), 53% bearish, 48% bullish.
Yesterday...................................2 made IFT(s), 45% bearish, 55% bullish.
The Barn Yard
Location.....................................100% G
Birchtree
Well-known member
This market is unreasonable - we are at new all-time highs where there is no market history to possibly get any reliable signals denoting form. The more folks applying capital preservation the higher my level of bullishness. Yesterday there was good volume expansion on the NYSE Composite - that has to mean something. Is it U.K. money coming in with their 16 year high sterling against the dollar. Stocks are for sale to the world on the cheap. The lower the dollar, the longer the bull market - look at '94-'95. The 80 level is where we've seen previous nice bull moves in equities. We could potentialy be looking at a market of stocks for awhile instead of an all boats market float.
weatherweenie
Well-known member
Briefing.com: 08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +9.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.0. Early indications are pointing to a sharply higher open for stocks. The market's resilience to the sell-off in Asian markets that preceded yesterday's negative start continues to offer some relief. More notably, though, participants are rallying around another round of upbeat reports offering evidence that first quarter earnings won't be as bad as initially feared. Google (GOOG) and American Express (AXP) kicked things off on a positive note last night with solid results. Dow component Caterpillar (CAT) handily topping Wall Street expectations and raising its full-year outlook this morning, though, has really given a market concerned about the pace of economic growth something to cheer about.
weatherweenie
Well-known member
Briefing.com:
08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +9.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.0. Still shaping up for the major averages to start on an upbeat note as better than expected earnings reports continue to trickle in. McDonald's (MCD) looks to open at a new all-time high after matching recently raised guidance and announcing an agreement to franchise 1600 stores in Latin America and the Caribbean.
Fellow Dow component Pfizer (PFE) handily topped expectations; but with PFE shares up 7% this month alone and Google's impressive quarter offering some optimism about the Tech sector's growth prospects, it won't be surprising to see some money rotate out of defensive areas like Health Care and into a more growth-oriented areas like Technology.
08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +9.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.0. Still shaping up for the major averages to start on an upbeat note as better than expected earnings reports continue to trickle in. McDonald's (MCD) looks to open at a new all-time high after matching recently raised guidance and announcing an agreement to franchise 1600 stores in Latin America and the Caribbean.
Fellow Dow component Pfizer (PFE) handily topped expectations; but with PFE shares up 7% this month alone and Google's impressive quarter offering some optimism about the Tech sector's growth prospects, it won't be surprising to see some money rotate out of defensive areas like Health Care and into a more growth-oriented areas like Technology.
weatherweenie
Well-known member
Briefing.com:
09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +9.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +14.8. The stage remains set for stocks to end a solid week in even stronger fashion. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq are already up 1.6%, 1.2% and 0.5%, respectively, this week, with the tech-heavy latter looking to make up the most ground today on the back of Google. It beat analysts' estimates for the 10th time in 11 tries since going public with a 69% surge in Q1 profits.
Tech is looking to get an additional boost from strength in semiconductors following encouraging developments out of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) regarding cost cuts and the price battle between AMD and Intel Corp. (INTC). It is also worth noting that the absence of any notable economic data this morning is placing even more emphasis on earnings and guidance.
09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +9.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +14.8. The stage remains set for stocks to end a solid week in even stronger fashion. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq are already up 1.6%, 1.2% and 0.5%, respectively, this week, with the tech-heavy latter looking to make up the most ground today on the back of Google. It beat analysts' estimates for the 10th time in 11 tries since going public with a 69% surge in Q1 profits.
Tech is looking to get an additional boost from strength in semiconductors following encouraging developments out of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) regarding cost cuts and the price battle between AMD and Intel Corp. (INTC). It is also worth noting that the absence of any notable economic data this morning is placing even more emphasis on earnings and guidance.
weatherweenie
Well-known member
Briefing.com: S&P 500 tests/stalls near resistance at 1483/1484 1481.59 +10.86 : Fib extension targets at 1483/1484 have been tested on the early sprint with the index slipping back slightly in recent trade. Intraday support is at 1481/1480 and 1478 with no damage done as long as the recent high at 1476 is intact
fabijo
Well-known member
If so, I'd be short covering at the slightest sign of an upward movement today.
Birchtree
Well-known member
Why are all the chickadees heading for the Lilly Pad, are the berries ripening? In a Primary 3 up they should be concentrating on capital appreciation and not fear loss. Capital preservation will hurt their bottom lines. All one needs to know is the direction of the underlying action that is the engine that pushes prices higher or lower in the first place. Money flow as it applies to the A/D line has been very consistent and the best thing about this type of methodology is this; you don't have to know why it is what it is, you just have to follow the money. The whys and whats will always be known later on, but it's detrimental to ones bottom line if you swim against this same tide.
weatherweenie
Well-known member
http://briefing.com/GeneralContent/...Investor&ArticleId=NS20070416080944MarketView
We are close to lowering our market view to Neutral, and may do so in the next couple of weeks. For now, however, we are maintaining our Moderately Bullish market view.
We are close to lowering our market view to Neutral, and may do so in the next couple of weeks. For now, however, we are maintaining our Moderately Bullish market view.
weatherweenie
Well-known member
Yup. Short covering is happening!
Ssssssssssnake fund is laggin, again. Beats a poke in the eye though.
robo
Well-known member
Paulson Says China Must Yield `Tangible Results' on Yuan, Trade
By Kevin Carmichael and Matthew Benjamin
April 21 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said China must accelerate its commitments on trade and a market-set exchange rate to head off protectionist legislation in Congress.
Paulson, who hosts the second session of a new bilateral economic dialogue next month, said yesterday that the talks need to yield ``tangible results.'' He said in a speech in New York that Chinese policy makers ``are not moving, in my judgment, quickly enough'' on the yuan.
The Treasury chief is under pressure to produce benefits from the Strategic Economic Dialogue he established last year as lawmakers consider about half a dozen bills to protect American companies. Tensions with China also threaten to rise after the Commerce Department imposed duties on Chinese paper last month.
``The American people are concerned, Congress is concerned and there's a lot of protectionist sentiment'' toward China, Paulson said in an interview on the ``Charlie Rose'' show on PBS television following his speech in New York. ``The more tangible reforms we see, the easier it is for me to deal with Congress.''
Paulson, 61, told the Committee of 100, a group that consists of prominent Chinese-Americans, including cellist Yo-Yo Ma and architect I.M. Pei, it was ``natural'' for problems to develop as trade increases. ``There's going to be tension and we have to manage through it.''
China passed Mexico last year to become the second-largest U.S. trade partner, after Canada. The U.S. trade deficit with China widened 15 percent to a record $232.5 billion in 2006.
`Unnatural Act'
Paulson, who has traveled to China three times since taking office in July, said the focus on Chinese policies centers on the exchange rate because that's the most ``visible'' gauge of the speed of change. As China integrates with the global economy, it's ``an unnatural act'' to keep managing its currency, he said.
China prevents the yuan from gaining more than 0.3 percent a day against a basket of currencies that includes the dollar, euro and yen. The yuan has risen only 7.2 percent since the government ended a link to the dollar and introduced the current system in July 2005. It closed at 7.72 per dollar yesterday in Shanghai.
Asked about how his campaign for faster gains in the yuan relates to his stance on the dollar, Paulson reiterated he seeks a ``strong'' U.S. currency. ``I believe very strongly that a strong dollar is in our nation's interest, and I'm a big believer in currencies being set in a competitive, open marketplace,'' he said on the Charlie Rose show.
He separately reiterated support for World Bank President Paul Wolfowitz, whose personal oversight of a raise and job transfer for an employee who was his companion is under investigation. He said he has a ``great admiration'' for Wolfowitz's work and backs the Executive Board's process.
May Meetings
Paulson hosts a delegation of Chinese economic officials led by Vice Premier Wu Yi in Washington May 22-24. The group first met in Beijing in December, when Paulson led a U.S. team that included Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez. The December meeting didn't produce new pledges by China, suggesting next month's session will be critical to address congressional demands for action.
Legislators have introduced about half a dozen separate bills aimed at China, including a Senate measure spearheaded by Kentucky Republican Jim Bunning that would make currency ``misalignment'' a punishable subsidy.
``There will be some, I believe, unattractive bills that are voted on in Congress,'' Paulson acknowledged. ``I think the Chinese are very well aware of this -- I think they should be aware of it.''
Imposing Duties
Outside of the Treasury, other parts of President George W. Bush's administration have taken a harder line with China. The Commerce Department last month put duties on imports of Chinese glossy paper, saying the government unfairly subsidizes its producers. Two weeks later, the U.S. Trade Representative's office filed two complaints at the World Trade Organization, alleging piracy of copyrighted movies, music, software and books.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=ajolGIe7te5A&refer=news
Refusing to rule out retaliation, China's Commerce Ministry warned the duties on paper would ``seriously damage'' bilateral cooperation and business ties.
Paulson defended his Strategic Economic Dialogue during congressional testimony in January, telling lawmakers the dialogue was the ``best chance of making progress'' with China. Yesterday, he said a big part of his and Wu's job is keeping Chinese and U.S. relations on an ``even keel.''
Capital Markets
In both his speech and the interview, the former head of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. reprised themes from an address in Shanghai last month, when he urged China to develop its domestic capital markets. Better access for companies and consumers to local financing will help shift the nation's development away from relying on exports, he said in the March 8 speech.
Paulson also again played down concern about Chinese purchases of Treasury securities. The nation's holdings climbed to $416.2 billion in February, partly a consequence of the swelling foreign-exchange reserves. The Treasury secretary noted that the amount is still less than the value of an average day's trading in Treasuries.
To contact the reporters on this story: Kevin Carmichael in Washington at kcarmichael@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: April 21, 2007 00:02 EDT
By Kevin Carmichael and Matthew Benjamin
April 21 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said China must accelerate its commitments on trade and a market-set exchange rate to head off protectionist legislation in Congress.
Paulson, who hosts the second session of a new bilateral economic dialogue next month, said yesterday that the talks need to yield ``tangible results.'' He said in a speech in New York that Chinese policy makers ``are not moving, in my judgment, quickly enough'' on the yuan.
The Treasury chief is under pressure to produce benefits from the Strategic Economic Dialogue he established last year as lawmakers consider about half a dozen bills to protect American companies. Tensions with China also threaten to rise after the Commerce Department imposed duties on Chinese paper last month.
``The American people are concerned, Congress is concerned and there's a lot of protectionist sentiment'' toward China, Paulson said in an interview on the ``Charlie Rose'' show on PBS television following his speech in New York. ``The more tangible reforms we see, the easier it is for me to deal with Congress.''
Paulson, 61, told the Committee of 100, a group that consists of prominent Chinese-Americans, including cellist Yo-Yo Ma and architect I.M. Pei, it was ``natural'' for problems to develop as trade increases. ``There's going to be tension and we have to manage through it.''
China passed Mexico last year to become the second-largest U.S. trade partner, after Canada. The U.S. trade deficit with China widened 15 percent to a record $232.5 billion in 2006.
`Unnatural Act'
Paulson, who has traveled to China three times since taking office in July, said the focus on Chinese policies centers on the exchange rate because that's the most ``visible'' gauge of the speed of change. As China integrates with the global economy, it's ``an unnatural act'' to keep managing its currency, he said.
China prevents the yuan from gaining more than 0.3 percent a day against a basket of currencies that includes the dollar, euro and yen. The yuan has risen only 7.2 percent since the government ended a link to the dollar and introduced the current system in July 2005. It closed at 7.72 per dollar yesterday in Shanghai.
Asked about how his campaign for faster gains in the yuan relates to his stance on the dollar, Paulson reiterated he seeks a ``strong'' U.S. currency. ``I believe very strongly that a strong dollar is in our nation's interest, and I'm a big believer in currencies being set in a competitive, open marketplace,'' he said on the Charlie Rose show.
He separately reiterated support for World Bank President Paul Wolfowitz, whose personal oversight of a raise and job transfer for an employee who was his companion is under investigation. He said he has a ``great admiration'' for Wolfowitz's work and backs the Executive Board's process.
May Meetings
Paulson hosts a delegation of Chinese economic officials led by Vice Premier Wu Yi in Washington May 22-24. The group first met in Beijing in December, when Paulson led a U.S. team that included Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez. The December meeting didn't produce new pledges by China, suggesting next month's session will be critical to address congressional demands for action.
Legislators have introduced about half a dozen separate bills aimed at China, including a Senate measure spearheaded by Kentucky Republican Jim Bunning that would make currency ``misalignment'' a punishable subsidy.
``There will be some, I believe, unattractive bills that are voted on in Congress,'' Paulson acknowledged. ``I think the Chinese are very well aware of this -- I think they should be aware of it.''
Imposing Duties
Outside of the Treasury, other parts of President George W. Bush's administration have taken a harder line with China. The Commerce Department last month put duties on imports of Chinese glossy paper, saying the government unfairly subsidizes its producers. Two weeks later, the U.S. Trade Representative's office filed two complaints at the World Trade Organization, alleging piracy of copyrighted movies, music, software and books.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=ajolGIe7te5A&refer=news
Refusing to rule out retaliation, China's Commerce Ministry warned the duties on paper would ``seriously damage'' bilateral cooperation and business ties.
Paulson defended his Strategic Economic Dialogue during congressional testimony in January, telling lawmakers the dialogue was the ``best chance of making progress'' with China. Yesterday, he said a big part of his and Wu's job is keeping Chinese and U.S. relations on an ``even keel.''
Capital Markets
In both his speech and the interview, the former head of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. reprised themes from an address in Shanghai last month, when he urged China to develop its domestic capital markets. Better access for companies and consumers to local financing will help shift the nation's development away from relying on exports, he said in the March 8 speech.
Paulson also again played down concern about Chinese purchases of Treasury securities. The nation's holdings climbed to $416.2 billion in February, partly a consequence of the swelling foreign-exchange reserves. The Treasury secretary noted that the amount is still less than the value of an average day's trading in Treasuries.
To contact the reporters on this story: Kevin Carmichael in Washington at kcarmichael@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: April 21, 2007 00:02 EDT
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