Market Talk / Jan. 21 - 27

[ayla]

For anyone still wondering about the VIX peak this morning that many of us saw, I'm convinced now it WAS a mistake as suggested by fedgolfer. There is no sign of the "17" I read for the VIX when I logged on this morning at 9am (or so). All traces seem to have vanished.

I've done a pretty good search of the web. And I just downloaded the historical data for the VIX from Yahoo and they report the high for today at 10.94. Oh well.

 

[The_Technician]

I too get suspicious when my elected officials suddenly try to change thing.

My first thought is.......Will you be paying more Social Security tax now that you no longer have the pretax benefit? I am going to say yes. Now there is a significant amount of revenue going into a black hole! Second, if you do not have you exemptions tweaked perfect. Now the gov. will have that revenue to play with until you file you tax return and get your rebate back. Nickles and dimes. Nickles and dimes.

Why not leave the pretax benefit alone and allow those who buy their own insurance to deduct it. I know, that would probably complicate the tax code beyond comprehension.

My impression of what was proposed yesterday by Bush is....I want more oil money...you Dems can have more health care money.....we will just take it from the general hardworking dumba$$ public who we scammed to get in here so we can make money....do you feel like you have been taken for a fool yet???

 

[weatherweenie]

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.2. Positive bias persists in pre-market trading as the majority of earnings reports continue to meet or exceed Wall Street expectations, especially in the beaten-down Tech sector. Among the big tech names topping forecasts and alleviating growth concerns are Yahoo! (YHOO), which will also roll out Panama earlier than expected, and Sun Microsystems (SUNW), which is getting an extra lift from a large private-equity investment. Seagate Technology (STX) issuing some upbeat Q2 guidance is also easing some of the uncertainty that has led to a tech sell-off that many may now feel was overextended.

 

[ATCJeff]

Wednesday, January 24, 2007

The event of the day will be oil EIA inventories at 10:30 (EST). Must hold support for crude is 53.40. The 56.50 level will be upside resistance on a breakout.

Good news from Corning (GLW) will help the tech sector as will the somewhat dubious rise by YHOO. NQ resistance is 1805, followed by 1810 and 1815. Should bulls really fly, 1823.50 is pretty much a wall, but with the semis probably still lagging due to AMD, I would not count on such a scenario. Support will be gap close at 1787. Remember that we still have a couple of big guns this week, MSFT and HPQ.
Should ES make a new high and breakout above 1444, confluence weekly R2 and monthly R1 should be the next stop (1449.25/1451). It will need a further bid in oil, which is why those numbers at 10:30 will be vital. Must hold is 1430/1432.

AheadoftheNews.com

 

[weatherweenie]

SP500 slightly above its 52week high of 1,435.27

 

[Rod]

What's this with MSFT?

http://www.cnn.com/2007/TECH/internet/01/24/microsoft.wikipedia.ap/index.html

:cheesy:

 

[weatherweenie]

SP500 slightly above its 52week high of 1,435.27

Now at 1437.03 time for a melt up. :laugh:

 

[weatherweenie]

EBAY must've said something good in their report. They're up 10% after hours.

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
January 24, 2007 Closing ​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................US socks at record high. Tacks rally!

Con-Yak...................................Lube arising.

Jester-Yak................................Yahoo!

Doodles:
Socks ended up for the day.
Stops.......................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....$SPX..1440.13 +12.14............1426..............1412
.....IJR........66.76 +0.70..............66.26.............65.56
.....EFA.......74.46 +0.48..............73.76.............73.06

Dollar........................................84.95 +0.29 for the day.

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at...............55.37 +0.33 for the day.
Oil Markers.................................<60= ok, 60-65= worry, >65= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles................................Yellow.

Tin Box.
Leaders Ratio / Top 10 .................4.0 ......1.0 ......0.3 ......1.7 .....3.0 ....07 leaders
Leaders Play................................G-fund, F-fund, C-fund, S-fund, I-fund.

 

[robo]

Wednesday, January 24, 2007
UP UP and Away!

As I predicted yesterday, the Bulls are firmly back in control of this market. Technology stocks led to the upside today and judging from the massive rally in EBAY after hours, the Nasdaq is set for another big rally tomorrow. So, how is it that the Bears have become so impotent and the Bulls have become the equivalent of the Energizer Bunny that keep going and going and going... It can all be summed up by one word LIQUIDITY. I have showed the chart here on this site a few times recently, noting the explosion of liquidity that is flooding the stock market. IMHO that vast ocean of liquidity is the X factor that is rendering all attempts at top picking futile. And until that changes a buy and hold approach is likely to continue to outperform any active market timing strategies such as my own market barometer.

I will continue to share the signals from my market barometer, but just be forewarned that in this current hyper-liquidity environment one would probably be best served by staying fully invested even during the times when the barometer goes neutral like now. Currently even though my market barometer remains neutral, my short-term work is strongly bullish looking out over the next 1-3 weeks.

http://www.zentrader13.blogspot.com/

 

[mlk_man]

It'll be interesting to see if Tom's new boy jumps back in or not.

 

[Birchtree]

If we do top out in the NYAD at the same time price does, it would only be another rest of the longer term trend. As a bullish reminder there has never been a major price top without the NYAD first providing divergence of some kind first. So as long as the NYAD continues to move higher and higher so will price and the longer it does the longer the advance will run. Snort.

 

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Addendum​

On Wednesday the market set new highs. The S&P broke out of being range bound and added 12.14 points to close at 1440.13. Techs from the NASD gave it a big boost.

Is this a new leg higher or another bull trap?

It broke through on good volume. That's a good sign! If it rises, has a slight pull back, then continues to rise, a new up leg higher is established. However if it falls back through the resistance trading range [1432] it could be a bull trap.

So the question is, trend or trap?

I hope it's a trend. But, for defense be ready to be nimble!

Le Chart​

Chart courtesy of www.Stockcharts.com
[Annotations added]​

 

[weatherweenie]

Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7B in 2006

 

[weatherweenie]

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.5. Early indications are pointing to a mixed open for stocks as investors continue to sift through a barrage of earnings reports. Dow component AT&T (T) looks to open at a five-year high as it headlines a list of other notable names (e.g. EBAY, QCOM, LMT, DOW, BAX, OXY, BMY, and NOK) topping expectations last night and this morning. Be that as it may, the Dow back in record territory, the S&P 500 finishing at six-year highs and the Nasdaq posting its largest one-day gain this year (+1.4%) yesterday are contributing to the hesitation on the part of investors.
After a two-day hiatus, economic data returning in the form of initial claims (8:30 ET) and existing home sales (10:00), which will provide updates on labor conditions and the health of housing, are also underpinning a sense of nervousness as futures trade continues to weaken.

 

[James48843]

Sales of Existing Homes Plunge by Largest Amount in 17 Years

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070125/economy.html?.v=13

 

[SkiUtah]

1432 support is still holding up.....

 

[HarryPotter]

It is true that 1432 is still holding up, but market's failure to build any momentum after yeasterdays gain shows that it is just chopping around.
No idea which direction next BIG move is goping to be. statistically it should be on the downside. I am going to G fund 100% today, Two days late than FRED account recommendation and will stay there until I see some correction.

 

[weatherweenie]

Slightly below 1432 on the sp500.

 

[Birchtree]

Harry,

You must understand and be aware of the fact that we are going to see frightening retracements the higher up we go. Bull markets do not like company and the higher we go the stiffer the pullbacks will be to make sure that not everyone is participating as we continue to move higher and higher. In a 3 0f 3 structure one should expect more volatility. You have to be in to win.

Dennis - permabull #1