Market Talk / Feb. 5 - Feb. 11

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Hurt so good

I wouldn't mind catching a little C fund at $13.60 if it decides to be magnanimous and then trend ever so slowly back to $14.00. Right now I have the time and I'm paying the dime. $13.60 and below - I'm ready.

Dennis
 
Bob Sled

Looks like gold is riding the sled that Vectorman mentioned earlier, he didn't tell us it was a Bob sled. Too fast for me. I prefer the sled one uses on a small hill.

Dennis
 
Anyway with Oil in the high $60s, Iran conflict of some kind, be it economic or Air campaign mounting, I believe any gains in the short term is all guess work especially given the trading confines of our TSP.[/QUOTE]
________________________________________________________________
He we go again with the Bird crap
AP
Stocks Fall After Bird Flu Strain Detection
Tuesday February 7, 11:22 am ET
By Ellen Simon, AP Business Writer
Stocks Fall After Hong Kong Authorities Detect Second Strain of Bird Flu

What else can happen
If buy on fear then this is your cup of tea; drink away
Good luck, I hope you all catch the bounce I'sit this one out and just be happy for all of you that score
 
JOVARN said:
He we go again with the Bird crap
AP
Stocks Fall After Bird Flu Strain Detection
Tuesday February 7, 11:22 am ET
By Ellen Simon, AP Business Writer
Stocks Fall After Hong Kong Authorities Detect Second Strain of Bird Flu
Click to expand...

Gotta luv those kneejerk reactions...:p
 
Triple bottom

Looks as though a triple bottoming formation (potential) for the S&P is placed today. This could suggest that a breadth bottom is now going to be behind us. Actually, the complex bottoming formation being seen on the S&P 500 is a bullish longer term structure. This price pattern consolidation forming is a platform structure, not one of topping.

If the SPX is going to flush to make new all time highs in the sequence from the October bottoms, building a base just below what has been a good overhead price resistance at the 1300 level, would make good structural sense in order for something important to have the energy to be achieved. Once the platform is in place - we may fall off the ledge, but I think we continue to move ever higher.

I like triple bottoms - they hurt while being formed, but usually the reward pays for the immediate sacrifice.

Dennis
 
Dollar

seems its got room to hit 1.17 or below....I'd be looking for an additional drop in the I fund ......:rolleyes:

I don't think that the triple bottom you mentioned will outweigh the end of the long term trend that is upon us Birch....but maybe we may get a positive move for a short one.....;)
 
Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
Feb. 07, 2006​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves, and The Tin Box.


Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak............ Breakout downside! Next stop Bearsville! Correction in progress.
Other Yak.............. Inventories up; Lube down 3%

Doodles:
Socks................... S&P 500 ($SPX)
Closed at.............. 1254.78, dn -10.24
Money flow............ +0.046, decreasing.
Stops................... NA.
Averages.............. -0.69, decreasing.
Slow STO.............. +13.07, decreasing.
Overbought/sold..... [70] 39.8 [30]

Lube..................... Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at............... 63.09, dn -2.02
Markers:................ <60 = ok, 60-65 = worry, >65 = critical.

Tea leaves:
Charts and Stuff..... Red

The Tin Box:
Position................. 100%G.
 
positive strokes

This afternoon would be a good time to receive some positive capitalism strokes from Kudlow and Company. A normal pause that refreshes. Mostly profit taking in the energy patch - I'm sure I gave back all my gains from yesterday and then some. Maybe a few dividend payers will rescue me today.

Anyway, looking forward to tomorrow and the next two days.

Dennis
 
Tech: Are you saying you believe the downward momentum of a triple bottom will continue, or that we are at or near the bottom and will flatten out for a time?
 
bottoms over bottoms - three nice ones maybe

Someone (?) said that if the S&P 500 breaks the 200 day moving average, which may be somewhere around 1227, then there is a chance the January high will be the years high, or else we place three bottoms above bottoms which would probably lead to another November type momentum run up in S&P 500 points. It certainly makes for a pretty graph - providing you are like The Technician and like pretty graphs. For my money it's a bullish longer term structure and a clue that the current price uptrend is stll not complete.

Dennis
 
Dennis: Did Larry Kudlow give us the positive message you were looking for?
 
Birch, you really believe the S&P will drop to 1225-27 (at this pt)? I see it holding (hoping :o ) at the 1250-55 area before reestablishing a move up. I realize when we broke the 50 dma in Oct 05 we followed through to the 200 dma, but if we look at the chart over the last year, looks similar to the Aug-Oct/Nov 05 run; I just don't see the turn down to the 200 dma just yet, should have another leg up first. I may be out to lunch (and dinner for that matter) but the technicals I look at say my jumping in point may soon be here for the large caps; of course how long that run will be is..., well let's just get turned upward first. After this next upturn we may have another pullback closer to the 200 dma, but the trend is still in tack for a nice bull run - imho.

wild cards - Iran, Israel and Hamas
 
"feed"eral reserve

Can ben wait till March 2 print???.....NFW!
Bernake thought the draw down on M3 would/could look good until his March masquerade party begins....doubt things can wait that LONG for his game.
dollar's strength, world's problems, and oversold home markets = time to gamble.
Come on I fund...pop one more time 4 me!
tekno
 
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Not me

Gritz,

The S&P 500 (SPX) testing the 200 day moving average would bring Tom in with both barrels. I don't think it drops that far to 1227 - but if it does it's only bullish longer term. We could possibly sideways consolidate for a number of months and then stair step down into the bottom for the 4-year cycle low around Octgober which could be the 1227 level. IMHO it's probable that we may have already seen the 4-year cycle low a year early. Which means 3000 points here we come or we wait until October for the next bull leg to start. I'm staying in either way. Pain and dollar cost averaging are my gains. You just have to pay the fare and ride - hoping it's not a bob sled.

Dennis
 
I hate not being able to get to a comp on days like yesterday. I was able once or twice but not when it really mattered. I would have gone serious into the S fund again. The S fund took too much of a hit and there will be some buying today, I believe. I hope that the buying well wait a day so that I can get in for tomorrow. I will get near a computer today to watch the market. Yea, S fund today I believe it the place to be. It took to big of a hit in comparison to the other markets we have a choice to be in. Short term play then to the I fund. Long-term play :)
 
Think we're

dell said:
Tech: Are you saying you believe the downward momentum of a triple bottom will continue, or that we are at or near the bottom and will flatten out for a time?
Click to expand...

in trouble economic wise and nobody is buying stocks at the moment....vol's are low and the will to take chances is dropping....between now and end of April is a hard time for the market....and if we stay even is really against the odds....besides we're at an end of a cycle....I'm not calling it a 4 year cycle like some others here, but there are dates that indicate between now and April/May timeframe is of interest....

Best thing for us is to get the economics straight so that we can make a move upwards....there are many things starting to block such a move and so we're toast until it happens.....those higher interest rates sure look good at the moment for a couple of years.....and they should go higher.....

This is just typical of an end of a properous cycle that we have been in for years.....expect it.

There is an outside chance that the S&P will be at or about 1190-1200 range sooner or later in a severe downstroke or if the market extends downward over time....watch for it...we have broken some midterm averages and that spells a possible trend downward....MACD long and short have been decreasing, and then there is the long term impulses.....they are in the negative and have been for a couple of weeks...given that 50% of the S&P is only above 50 day averages and moving downward it looks spooky....
 
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Caution is on the order

Just to inform those who are not looking or unknowing at the time....the CSI funds have dropped low enough from there recent peaks to be of concern :o ...if they stay down over the near future I would expect that they will continue on that path for some time..:confused: ..this is a trying period for the funds and again the odds are against them maintaining this level....in other words watch for negative returns for some time...:mad: ..I'd give them at least until end of April...but that is still a matter of opinion depend who you're talking to.....;)
 
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