chips up here hope the world follows tomm.
http://tinyurl.com/7gksx ....semi's up nicely!
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^VIX ....vix showing a poss. bounce
come on I fund let's go up 2-3% by the eow!!
tekno
ISA Daily Trade Navigator for 2/08/06
Wednesday morning at 9:15 am
By Mark Young of Equity Guardian Group
Short-Term Sentiment:
Positive, but mixed.
Intermediate-Term Sentiment:
Neutral/Positive.
Longer-term Trend: Positive.
Intermediate-term Trend:
Negative, unconfirmed by breadth.
Short-term (one-day) Signal:
Buy, but we want to be careful. The Rydex Sell urges caution.
We are trading these signals intra-day with KTT subscribers on Yahoo IM--contact us for details.
Ideal ETF Portfolio (tracking portfolio):
50% Money Market.
25% SPY at 127.70
and
25% QQQQ at 42.10
We need a bit less optimism to add to these positions. We were planning on it, but now we're a bit concerned. Much more deterioration and we'll go back flat. We'll advise.
Message Board Sentiment
The message board sentiment poll now shows Bulls at 53% and Bears at 26%. These pollees are right more often than not, so this is Bullish, but this is a bit excessive. Of course, the CSCO blow it is obvious and the market IS up. The Actual Position Poll shows 52% at least partially long, and 32% at least partially short. There are just 16.13% fully short Bears. This is well below my 20% fully short threshold and the fully long Bulls are way too high given how ugly this market is. This places us at risk, but I have a theory that these players are so short-term that they are now trading counter trend (because it works). This data may be less useful than it has been until we get going on a trend. We'll advise.
Options Sentiment
The equity P/C ratio fell to a still Bullish 0.67. The OEX PC ratio sits at a Bullish 0.80. The OEX $-weighted Put/Call data from Hamzei Analytics rose to a modestly Bullish 2.07. The QQQQ $-Weighted P/C ratio came in at a VERY Bullish 3.10. I'm paying more attention to this tool since the prior low readings pretty much pegged the the top, last Friday's rally, and Thursday's decline. The 10-day P/C ratio is at a neutral 0.86. The daily P/C ratio is at a neutral 0.95. ISEE came in with a Neutral reading of 153. I'd have liked to have seen this lower, but it's OK. This indicator is contrarian; over 200 is too optimistic, under 100 too pessimistic. The options data suggest that we will rally. I'm paying close attention to the QQQQ data, particularly. We'll try to post a chart of the $-weighted P/C ratio on the ISA Navigator board on TTHQ shortly.
General Public Polls
LowRisk reported 43% Bulls up from 34% Bulls and 30% Bears down from 41% Bears. This is showing rising Bullishness in a sloppy market. This isn't compelling, but it's not Bullish. Last week, AAII reported 44.7% (vs. 31%) Bulls and 33.33% (vs. 33%) Bears. This is a decent shift to the Bullish side, but nothing too dramatic. I expect some more dramatically and persistently higher readings before the real top, but we have to be alert. Investors Intelligence reported a drop to 52.6% (vs. 53.7%) Bulls, and a rise to 25.8% (vs. 25.3%) Bears. This is about as expected but it could be better. We de-emphasize this measure for short and intermediate-term trading.
Rydex Sentiment
The Rydex Dynamic Bull funds saw $65MM of inflows, while the Dynamic Bear Funds had inflows of $6MM. Overall, the fund shifts were rather mixed. The RSO showed a solid Bullish shift on a decline. That's a Sell, but such was entirely due to a LARGE Bullish shift into Velocity. The Cisco news already validates this move too. This data muddies the water, but I think that we have to discount it a bit due to the nature of the shifts--one big timer was likely to blame and if history is any guide, these big Velocity and Venture shifts are as often as not a poor fade. Yesterday's Buy is probably holding sway today. Bigger picture, I believe that we will see all of the Bearish shifts from October reversed prior to a really good top.
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