Market Talk / Feb. 4 - 10

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long time listener, first time poster ... had to laugh when I sam MMs response to Tech

I have been sitting 50% C, 50% S for about 2.5 months and have been too nervous to get out, donn't want to miss any big ups but I may be getting close to a short term exodus, just not yet ... I keep hearing Birchy's quote "ya gotta be in to win baby"
 
Could be wrong but perhaps the "big" correction, i.e. sell off ended about mid morning today and the next bull run has already begun?
 
The news comes tomorrow. Expecting unit-labor costs for the fourth quarter to come in at 2%, easing back from the 2.3% in December. Non-farm productivity is expected to rise to 2.2% from 0.2% in the fourth quarter. They may or may not move the market.
 
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Cisco Systems Inc. reported late Tuesday quarterly profit surged 40%, boosted by surging demand for its Internet equipment among telecom service providers, corporate customers and consumers.
The San Jose, Calif.-based giant said net income for the fiscal second-quarter ended Jan. 27 rose to $1.92 billion, or 31 cents a share, from $1.38 billion, or 22 cents, a year earlier.
Excluding the cost of employee stock options and other items, Cisco said it would have earned 33 cents a share, more than the 31-cents-a-share estimate of analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial.
Sales surged 27% to $8.44 billion, beating expectations of $8.28 billion, as telecom firms and large corporations upgraded their networks and Cisco expanded its push into the consumer market for low-cost networking gear.
 
Selling the news. Not a huge drop afterhours, but a drop nonetheless.

weatherweenie said:
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Cisco Systems Inc. reported late Tuesday quarterly profit surged 40%, boosted by surging demand for its Internet equipment among telecom service providers, corporate customers and consumers.
The San Jose, Calif.-based giant said net income for the fiscal second-quarter ended Jan. 27 rose to $1.92 billion, or 31 cents a share, from $1.38 billion, or 22 cents, a year earlier.
Excluding the cost of employee stock options and other items, Cisco said it would have earned 33 cents a share, more than the 31-cents-a-share estimate of analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial.
Sales surged 27% to $8.44 billion, beating expectations of $8.28 billion, as telecom firms and large corporations upgraded their networks and Cisco expanded its push into the consumer market for low-cost networking gear.
Click to expand...
 
Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
February 06, 2007 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................US socks slightly up, awaiting catalysts, CSCO? International did ok.

Con-Yak...................................Still sideways, ripe for a pullback.

Jester-Yak................................Hearing lethargic, indecisive and caution!

Doodles:
Socks ended up for the day.
Stops.......................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....$SPX.......1448.00 +1.01.........1434.39..........1420.39
.....$EMW........655.62 +2.30..........649.62...........643.62
.....EFA............75.05 +0.58............74.35.............73.65

Dollar........................................84.77 -0.34 for the day.

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at...............58.88 +0.14 for the day.
Oil Markers.................................<60= ok, 60-65= worry, >65= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles................................Yellow.

Tin Box.
Leaders Ratio / Top 10 .................4.9 ......1.5 ......1.2 ......2.1 .....0.4 ....07 leaders
Leaders Play................................G-fund, F-fund, C-fund, S-fund, I-fund.
 
Does A Bear Read Its Archives?
By Bill
You can read a lot of humorous things on the web, often things that aren’t intended as humor.

The bears always seem so much more literate than the bulls. They express themselves so well.

The bear argument usually sounds more intelligent and well-thought out.

My response is that, if you read the bear archives in tandem with an examination of a long-term stock chart, the IQ of these bearish “gurus” will drop several points. If you don’t believe me, or if you’re just too darn lazy to do that, CXO Advisory Group has compiled some “guru grades” by doing just exactly what I suggested, except they’ve been doing this for quite a while.

Marc Faber’s track record on forecasting the performance of U.S. equities over the past few years is just above average.

The accuracy rate of John Hussman’s stock market characterizations since September 2003 is below average. His “valuation” measure has had no practical use.

Tim Wood’s stock market forecasts since April 2003, generally focused on a long-term bull-versus-bear contest, have been wrong most of the time.

John Mauldin is below average in forecasting stock market behavior and generally useless to traders because of his very long forecast horizon. On a side note, I finally got tired of deleting his useless, rambling emails and unsubscribed yesterday.

Jim Puplava has not been a good guide regarding the overall direction of the U.S. stock market since late 2002.

Bill Fleckenstein’s stuck-on-pending-disaster outlook has resulted in a very weak stock market forecasting record over the past few years. When disaster does strike, he will have warned us, and warned us, and warned us…

I guess it’s really not that hard to be smarter than the average bear.

http://billakanodoodahs.com/
 
&P futures vs fair value: +3.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.5. Futures indications improve following this morning's productivity data, now signaling an even stronger start for stocks. A preliminary read on Q4 productivity just came in at a stronger than expected 3.0% (consensus 2.0%), as unit labor costs rose 1.7%, temporarily sidelining wage-based inflation worries. Bonds, which were off slightly ahead of the report, are now relatively unchanged; the 10-yr note is flat to yield 4.76%.
 
I'll see yer 0.45% S, and I'll raise ya some "I" fund too for tomorrow.

Deal'em boys.

I'm back in, and riding the bull.


Hang on.
 
Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
February 07, 2007 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Bears scared Krude.

Con-Yak...................................Afternoon partial rain out!

Jester-Yak................................Just overbought.

Doodles:
Socks ended slightly up for the day.
Stops.......................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....$SPX.......1450.02 +2.02.........1436.02..........1422.02
.....$EMW........658.88 +3.27..........652.88...........646.88
.....EFA............75.26 +0.21............74.56.............73.86

Dollar........................................84.71 -0.06 for the day.

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at...............57.71 -1.17 for the day.
Oil Markers.................................<60= ok, 60-65= worry, >65= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles................................Yellow.

Tin Box.
Leaders Ratio / Top 10 .................3.5 ......1.0 ......1.4 ......2.9 .....1.3 ....07 leaders
Leaders Play................................G-fund, F-fund, C-fund, S-fund, I-fund.
 
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