Market Talk / Feb. 4 - 10

[James48843]

Here's what I am seeing and feeling today-

Whew- the market keeps on ticken. I don't think we're at the top, because the "S" is continuing to show more strength then the "C" fund is . I think when we get to the top, the "C" wil eek out a day or two more than the "S" does when we get to the real mountain top here.

I thought I was seeing signs of a top late last week. It was another fake out. Up, up and away...


And awayyyyy we go.

 

[Birchtree]

No intermediate term top until April - IMHO. I need to start doing some more accumulating adding to existing positions.

 

[ebbnflow]

Batten down the hatches. The Storm is coming!

 

[weatherweenie]

8:00am ET: S&P futures vs fair value: -2.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.2. Early indications suggest a sluggish start for stocks as uncertainty about the decelerating pace of earnings growth feed concerns the market is ripe for a pullback after last week's rally. Investors are also showing some reserve until all of the same-store sales results are tallied for January, an increasingly crucial month due in large part to gift card redemptions.

Meanwhile, Disney (DIS) handily topping Wall Street expectations last night and an analyst upgrade on fellow Dow component Alcoa (AA) are noteworthy developments; but it remains to be seen if blue-chip investors can overcome a feeling of vertigo after the Dow eclipsed the 12,700 level yesterday for the first time ever.

 

[weatherweenie]

9:00am ET S&P futures vs fair value: -2.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.5. The market is still slated for a weak open as sluggish January retail sales give investors a reason to keep questioning the sustainability of recent market gains. Nasdaq 100 futures, though, are trading near their best levels of the morning; but, a Jan. comps shortfall from Costco (COST) and some profit taking in Technology following yesterday's Cisco-induced rally are acting as an overhang.

 

[weatherweenie]

Market View: Dow and S&P 500 hold at recent range floor (TECHX) : Early pressure brings supports noted in The Technical Take into play at 12630/12620 and 1444/1443, respectively. This marks the bottom of their recent trading ranges. Intraday resistance that needs to be cleared to begin to improve the very short term pattern is at 12645/12655 and 1446.75-1447.25.

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
February 08, 2007 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................US socks stumble and stagger.

Con-Yak...................................Krude surge nears 60.

Jester-Yak................................Must be February.

Doodles:
Socks ended down for the day.
Stops.......................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....$SPX.......1448.31 -1.71.........1436.02..........1422.02
.....$EMW........658.62 -0.26..........652.88...........646.88
.....EFA............74.96 -0.30............74.56.............73.86

Dollar........................................84.69 -0.02 for the day.

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at...............59.71 +2.00 for the day.
Oil Markers.................................<60= ok, 60-65= worry, >65= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles................................Yellow.

Tin Box.
Leaders Ratio / Top 10 .................3.3 ......1.3 ......1.0 ......4.0 .....0.6 ....07 leaders
Leaders Play................................G-fund, F-fund, C-fund, S-fund, I-fund.

 

[robo]

NASDAQ IS KEY
February 9, 2007

The bears and short sellers are beginning to second-guess themselves and the bulls are buying every dip. Over the past two weeks small caps have been extremely strong and the Russell 2000 Index (RUT) has finally broken out to new rally highs. But the Nasdaq Composite Index (COMPQ) and tech heavy Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) are key. Both are about 2% below their brief rally highs of three weeks ago. The Nasdaq must break out in coming days!

The rest of the indexes are strong. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) has been strong since early summer 2006 with nary a correction for seven months. The NYSE advance decline line is at new highs.

The Nasdaq indices are the only ones to lag. If the Nasdaq Composite Index closes above 2503 in coming days, and the Nasdaq 100 Index closes above 1845, look for a new break out rally across the board for the stock market. If they fail here, we could be in for a long winter regardless of what the groundhog said this Tuesday.

http://timing.typepad.com/timer/2007/02/nasdaq_is_key.html

 

[robo]

MARKET COMMENT

February 8, 2007

“But I make the weather!”
Phil Connors

A scene from movie favorite “Groundhog Day” seems appropriate today as the weather folks said, “Sorry folks, two more weeks of cold weather.” So this drives up crude oil which rose 3% today after falling 2% yesterday.


The central banker’s are trying to match each other’s tough guy images since yesterday Fed Governor Plosser was talking “vigilance” and the possibility of a rate hike and today ECB head Trichet said they needed to maintain “strong vigilance”. Who’s tougher? This last statement was telegraphing currency traders that a rate hike would be coming in March. This “tough talk” stuff is really impressive isn’t it? Just remember, if yield differentials matter, the short-term rate for the EU as set by the ECB is only 3.5% versus 5.25% in the US. You figure it out since we’ve said repeatedly that there’s little to like about the euro. In fact, there are rumblings in Deutschland and elsewhere in the EU preferring to return to the D-mark. How fun would that be?

http://www.etfdigest.com/daveDaily.php

 

[robo]

Technical Talk

Investors Get Picky
By Arthur B. Hill - Fri 02-Feb-07 2:48 PM EST

The S&P Small-Cap iShares (IJR) hit a new all time high this week and led the market higher over the last six days. Just a few weeks ago, this group was lagging and relative weakness hung over the market The ETF broke above its December high and this is a vote of confidence for both small-caps and the market as a whole.


Unfortunately, this vote of confidence from small-caps is overshadowed by a no-confidence vote from techs. Like small-caps, tech stocks typically have higher betas, higher volatility and higher risk. Investors are risk loving when these two groups lead and risk averse when these groups lag. Small-caps are doing their part with a breakout and new highs, but techs are not keeping up and investors are getting choosy.

http://www.etfinvestmentoutlook.com/commentary.php?id=10237&s=Investors Get Picky

The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) broke resistance on 11-January, but failed to hold this breakout and moved right back into the December trading range. The broader non-tech portion of the market rallied this week with the S&P Small-Cap iShares (IJR), the Dow Diamonds (DIA) and the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) hitting 52-week highs. In contrast, QQQQ could not even break above last week’s high at 44.47. This no-confidence vote casts a shadow over the broader bull market and I will be watching key support at 43 quite closely.

 

[weatherweenie]

9:00am ET: &P futures vs fair value: +1.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.5. The stage remains set for stocks to bounce back from yesterday's slight downturn. Technology looks to provide some early leadership after J.P. Morgan upgraded semiconductor stocks to Bullish from Cautious while analyst upgrades on the Big Three automakers lend some optimism about their earnings potential. Oil prices have recently inched into positive territory, but the realization that crude continues to meet resistance at the $60 mark, is still reassuring.

 

[Oldcoin]

Stocks mixed as Poole warns on inflation
As earnings season wraps up, investors ponder health of 2007 profits

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks traded mixed Friday morning, as an inflation warning from a Federal Reserve official dented market sentiment, and offset an analyst's upgrades of Ford Motor Co. and General Motors Corp., at a time when trader's tried to assess forward earnings as the fourth quarter's reporting season drew to a close.

Just in case you were wondering why the market took a dive at 1:00

 

[weatherweenie]

1:30 pm : The indices are extending their reach to the downside as sector leadership continues to deteriorate. Technology (-0.9%) is pacing the way lower, as Micron Technology (MU 12.50 -0.40) recently saying the NAND flash memory market is in horrible shape, takes a toll on sentiment, especially amid signs of improving growth prospects in tech earlier in the week. SanDisk (SNDK 40.38 -1.46) is plunging 3.5%.
The fact that Financials, the most influential sector of them all, ranks second among today's laggards (-0.6%) also removes some notable leadership. Rate-sensitive banks and brokers continue to get hit in sympathy with the continued upturn in borrowing costs. The 10-year note is now down 14 ticks to yield 4.78% as hawkish testimony from Fed officials continues to hit the wires. Most recently, Dallas Fed President Fisher has recently said he "wouldn't rule out" further rate increases and that he won't rest easier until core inflation is "well below 2%" on a sustained basis.

 

[Birchtree]

Bring on the mighty hammer and let's do it. Then we can begin to move forward next week - we actually need the healthy rest. Got dividends to reinvest at lower prices. We have simply been working off the momentum of last years rally - today may be the final spike down. Be right and sit tight.

 

[fedgolfer]

Bring on the mighty hammer and let's do it. Then we can begin to move forward next week - we actually need the healthy rest. Got dividends to reinvest at lower prices. We have simply been working off the momentum of last years rally - today may be the final spike down. Be right and sit tight.

If this is all off of Fed speak, its a buying op. Only question is, is how long with the market take to realize that the house is still in order. With the VIX above 11, there's enough fear and momentum to last a couple more days. I'm hoping the 20 SMA intraday support will stop the bleeding in the S&P.

 

[Spaf]

Yep weatherweenie!
I'm picking up roughly the same thing.

USA Today > 02-09-07 about 1:30 CT NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks turned lower Friday afternoon, as crude futures moved higher and as several Federal Reserve officials declined to rule out more rate hikes, overshadowing new upgrades of Ford Motor Co. and General Motors Corp.

 

[350zCommTech]

It Begins.

On Tuesday in my post titled "Almost There" I wrote:

"the market is on the verge of an explosion in bullish sentiment. In the coming months we should see small retail (Main Street) investors who have thus far been skeptics of this rally suddenly become true believers. We should see the most high beta speculative stocks start to outperform, as greed replaces fear as the dominant emotion. The put/call ratio should plummet, equity fund flows should surge, and a level of greed and euphoria not seen since the heady days of the Bubble 1999-2000 should re-emerge to towards the later part of this year."

http://zentrader13.blogspot.com/

I'm thinking his chart is upside down.

 

[Birchtree]

There's nothing like getting whipsawed a few times to make one take a step back and look at the bigger picture. This is a pause that refreshes and the pain is healthy - no pain means no gain. I'll probably get my next DCA under $16.00. That's a small blessing.

 

[fedgolfer]

... I'm hoping the 20 SMA intraday support will stop the bleeding in the S&P.

let's hope this turn is the next big wave up.

 

[Spaf]

Who let him out?​