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Market Talk / May 13th - 19th
- Thread starter Spaf
- Start date
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wht00ss
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
Just illustrating the fickleness of May thru the chart and how the market has performed since the first three trading days. Sorry I wasn't clear.Daily trading in a market with this kind of volatility is imo very risky. We are having 3 or 4 reversals daily and then the opposite which makes it next to impossible to predict what will happen today let alone tomorrow no matter how much info you have.
For me, when the trading environment devolves to what we have right now I rather hold for a set period like a week based for example on the the sentiment indicator among many others because I find that you are to often on the wrong side if you do a daily jump - if we have a general trend down I'm out (example a week) - the other way I'm in while the trend is my friend until it tells me otherwise.
I have found that extending my interfund transfers in this environment you miss less.
Just one guy's opinion.
white
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
May 17, 2007 Closing
Daily Edition
May 17, 2007 Closing
Yak, Le Charts, Doodles, Tea Leaves, 5-Tribes, and The Barn Yard.
Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Socks [SPX] remains bullish with 13d moving average above 50d MA, and is relatively stable as B. bands remain tight.
Con-Yak...................................Stochastic oscillator signaling bullish with %K above %D, but is edging into overbought conditions.
Jester-Yak................................Maybe we are in a consolidation?
Doodles:
Stops.......................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX........1512.75 -1.39.........1499.............1484
Dollar........................................82.32 +0.16 for the day.
Lube (NYMEX) Closed at...............64.86 +2.31 for the day.
Oil Markers.................................<60= ok, 60-65= worry, >65= panic.
Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Yellow!
5-Tribes
Tomorrow...................................Tribes are holding 2.5 bears to 2.5 bulls.
The Barn Yard
Location.....................................100% G.
Show-me
Well-known member
AP
Economy May Slow This Summer, Data Show
Thursday May 17, 7:50 pm ET
By Candice Choi, AP Business Writer U.S. Economy to Slow in Coming Months, Research Group Gauge Shows
NEW YORK (AP) -- A gauge of future economic activity showed the U.S. economy will slow in coming months, reversing recent gains and suggesting higher gas prices and a sluggish construction industry are beginning to take their toll.
The Conference Board said Thursday its index of leading economic indicators dropped 0.5 percent, higher than the 0.1 decline analysts were expecting. The reading is designed to forecast economic activity over the next three to six months.
The increase almost reversed an amended 0.6 percent climb in March, which analysts say should relieve pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.
"The data may be pointing to slower economic conditions this summer. With the industrial core of the economy already slow, and housing mired in a continued slump, there are some signs that these weaknesses may be beginning to soften both consumer spending and hiring this summer," said Ken Goldstein, labor economist for the Conference Board.
The reading tracks 10 economic indicators. Two of those readings were positive in April: stock prices and real money supply. The negative contributors, beginning with the largest, were building permits, weekly unemployment claims, manufacturers' new orders for non-defense capital goods, consumer expectations, vendor performance, average weekly manufacturing hours and interest rate spread.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070517/economy.html?.v=20
Economy May Slow This Summer, Data Show
Thursday May 17, 7:50 pm ET
By Candice Choi, AP Business Writer U.S. Economy to Slow in Coming Months, Research Group Gauge Shows
NEW YORK (AP) -- A gauge of future economic activity showed the U.S. economy will slow in coming months, reversing recent gains and suggesting higher gas prices and a sluggish construction industry are beginning to take their toll.
The Conference Board said Thursday its index of leading economic indicators dropped 0.5 percent, higher than the 0.1 decline analysts were expecting. The reading is designed to forecast economic activity over the next three to six months.
The increase almost reversed an amended 0.6 percent climb in March, which analysts say should relieve pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.
"The data may be pointing to slower economic conditions this summer. With the industrial core of the economy already slow, and housing mired in a continued slump, there are some signs that these weaknesses may be beginning to soften both consumer spending and hiring this summer," said Ken Goldstein, labor economist for the Conference Board.
The reading tracks 10 economic indicators. Two of those readings were positive in April: stock prices and real money supply. The negative contributors, beginning with the largest, were building permits, weekly unemployment claims, manufacturers' new orders for non-defense capital goods, consumer expectations, vendor performance, average weekly manufacturing hours and interest rate spread.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070517/economy.html?.v=20
wht00ss
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
According to David Rosenberg, chief North American economist for Merrill Lynch, a recession isn't just back-to-back quarters of shrinking gross domestic product. Think of it, rather, in terms of stall speed:
"It's when GDP gets to 1.5% or lower. Why? Because population is rising 1.5% a year. When you get GDP growth below 1.5% a year, what it means is that real per-capita national income is actually contracting."
Indeed.
white
"It's when GDP gets to 1.5% or lower. Why? Because population is rising 1.5% a year. When you get GDP growth below 1.5% a year, what it means is that real per-capita national income is actually contracting."
Indeed.
white
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
Market Talk
RECENT RECORD: May; S&P 4 up, 5 down, average -0.1% loss, ranked eighth.
Worst six months of the year begin with May.
Crude prices now $64.86 a barrel. Gasoline averages up to $3.11 a gallon (and rising).
Stock Market pricing is high with the [SPX] now entering overbought conditions.
If conditions were oversold I could see buying in after a bottom. But right now it's buying high, hoping for a higher high. MHO is that the sentiment and fundamentals are very high risk.
Last I checked my TSP was fed, warm and comfortable on the lilly pad.
Later!
Spaf
Be careful out there!.....
RECENT RECORD: May; S&P 4 up, 5 down, average -0.1% loss, ranked eighth.
Worst six months of the year begin with May.
Crude prices now $64.86 a barrel. Gasoline averages up to $3.11 a gallon (and rising).
Stock Market pricing is high with the [SPX] now entering overbought conditions.
If conditions were oversold I could see buying in after a bottom. But right now it's buying high, hoping for a higher high. MHO is that the sentiment and fundamentals are very high risk.
Last I checked my TSP was fed, warm and comfortable on the lilly pad.
Later!
Spaf
Be careful out there!.....
weatherweenie
Well-known member
briefing.com
08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.0. Positive bias persists in pre-market action, setting the stage for stocks to recoup what little was lost a day earlier. Aside from earnings and M&A speculation, the market is also getting a lift from some upbeat analyst commentary.
Dow components Intel (INTC) and Verizon Communications (VZ) look to open near 52-week highs after being upgraded. The influential Financials sector will also be in focus after Bernstein raised their price targets on select U.S Brokers (e.g. GS, MER, MS, LEH, and BSC) due to improving fundamentals.
08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.0. Positive bias persists in pre-market action, setting the stage for stocks to recoup what little was lost a day earlier. Aside from earnings and M&A speculation, the market is also getting a lift from some upbeat analyst commentary.
Dow components Intel (INTC) and Verizon Communications (VZ) look to open near 52-week highs after being upgraded. The influential Financials sector will also be in focus after Bernstein raised their price targets on select U.S Brokers (e.g. GS, MER, MS, LEH, and BSC) due to improving fundamentals.
SkyPilot
Well-known member
I went with Freds advice this am, hope it all works out
Good for you... !
weatherweenie
Well-known member
Briefing.com
09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.8. Still shaping up to be a higher open for the cash market as S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures hold steady above fair value. Meanwhile, oil prices continue to inch higher and are now back above $65/bbl; but as evidenced by the market’s ongoing resilience to higher energy prices, especially a 3.6% surge in crude yesterday that did little to curb sentiment, the market's underlying bullish momentum remains the most supportive of factors. With a preliminary read on sentiment compiled by the University of Michigan today's only scheduled economic report, and not hitting the wires until 10:00 ET with little market-moving capability, the absence of potentially troubling data this morning is also clearing the way for buyers to get back on track.
09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.8. Still shaping up to be a higher open for the cash market as S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures hold steady above fair value. Meanwhile, oil prices continue to inch higher and are now back above $65/bbl; but as evidenced by the market’s ongoing resilience to higher energy prices, especially a 3.6% surge in crude yesterday that did little to curb sentiment, the market's underlying bullish momentum remains the most supportive of factors. With a preliminary read on sentiment compiled by the University of Michigan today's only scheduled economic report, and not hitting the wires until 10:00 ET with little market-moving capability, the absence of potentially troubling data this morning is also clearing the way for buyers to get back on track.
Good luck Medic72! The first IFT is always the toughest. But now you are no longer a virgin. It gets easier.I went with Freds advice this am, hope it all works out
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