Market Talk / Feb. 5 - Feb. 11

[Wizard]

Treasury debt auctions moving forward will be a great challenge.

Unless, unless, unless the fed goes .50 next time.

.25% is not going to cut it anymore.

ECB, Russia, Thailand, Australia, New Zealand, Philippines, Japan are going to start raising their rates - probably before July.

 

[Wizard]

Mortgage lenders and financials are not looking good on the open.

One of the big mortgage lenders:

NOVASTAR FINANCIAL INC

Real-time
Last Change (%) After Hours Chg (%)** Trade Time Bid Ask
26.90 4.41 (14.08)
----------------
30-yr Bond 44.75 -1.68 (-3.62%)

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Did not see that coming.

 

[Wizard]

Tell me there is not a mania in the stock market?????????

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange said Thursday it will begin trading snowfall futures and options contracts later this month.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/storie...ME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2006-02-09-19-53-12

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What next tulip bulbs?????

 

[Soldat]

Wizard, try not to double and triple post. It's bad etiquette. If you need to add something, use the edit function on your last post?

In response to your multiple posts, I dont think JP will raise rates, from what I have read, they are still battling deflation, not inflation.

 

[Wizard]

It's bad etiquette to say that on the main board, Mr Manners.

How about a PM?

They are battling trying to hock new debt. Inflation/deflation means nothing.

If we can not borrow and spend then the economy stops.

Besides: The edit button feature was not available.

 

[Wheels]

S fund is underperforming the C again. This makes several times in the last week or so. Is this the beginning of the much anticipated rotation?

Dave
<><

 

[Rod]

S fund is underperforming the C again. This makes several times in the last week or so. Is this the beginning of the much anticipated rotation?

Dave
<><

I believe it is. I made these comments in my account talk:

The S&P 500 low for 2006 so far is 1,254.78 (7 Feb).

Before 7 Feb, the low posted on 20 Jan @ 1,261.49. Jan 20 was that huge sell-off we had.

As of now (10:23am EST), it's @ 1,260.08.

That's a BUY in my book.

 

[Wheels]

I believe it is. I made these comments in my account talk:

I'm not sure I'm a believer yet. When I jump back into stocks (hopefully early next week) I'm planning on going all S looking for a big catch-up. Another week and I might be convinced.

Dave
<><

 

[JOVARN]

Dont tell me. Is a afternoon rally possible. Did I Screw up?
I only bought today because my target of 2230 was getting close
I hate to give back

 

[robo]

The Dip buyers and some Short covering

Market made a nice come back in the last couple of hours and it could be the shorts and dip buyers. Is this support and the correct dip to buy? This market could still go either way here so I'm waiting for my Friend the Trend to show-me the way....

I'm still in cash and on the sidelines and waiting. Mr Market will try to fool you. Many of the Pro's are confused at this point. The ones I'm following are still in cash. Long term investors this market is acting normal, Birchtree will have the Big money in the END!!!! HE HAS THE BIG MONEY NOW, I should have said BIG BIG money. GO GO Birchtree!!

I still think we are going higher soon, but short term I'm still waiting for the Trend to show me the way. I'm not shorting here just staying in cash. The bottom is forming nicely and soon we could be headed up, but I'm staying cautious for now.

Good trading for those making short term plays, you can make money if your willing to take the risk. Good trading!

 

[Birchtree]

Please don't shout

Robo,

I'm totally content in the C fund - just watching the world pass me by. Some members are considering taking a position in the C fund - even though that may be contrary. I actually prefer my solace. This market definitely feels like a bullish undertone. I'm getting hammered in commodities type stocks - but the same thing happened last year - just another great buying opportunity. I think the MACD on the SPX will probably do a quick cross-over at the earley part of next week. Got to check the NYAD - but I'm sure its bouncing higher. Continues to hold above the 20 day EMA. Looks like the majority of MCOs and MCSUMs will provide confirmations on their charts.

Still got my focus on the long term secular bull market megatrend - but not ignoring the potential for the 4-year cycle low. Missed my $13.60 price the other day - could be next week but I'll end up buying back at $14.00. Anyway, don't shout Big Money - on the day the Dow was up 108 points - this Birchy actually lost $300 and I'm crankin close to $1mil. All give back in the energy patch - but it's only temporary - actually had some good targets today. Again, thanks for the Bob update. Take care

Dennis

 

[Fivetears]

One Chip, Two Chip. Red Chip, Blue Chip.

February 10, 2006 16:03 EST Bloomberg reporters state, "The U.S. economy may grow 3.4 percent this year after expanding 3.5 percent in 2005, based on a survey of economists last month from Blue Chip Economic Indicators. By comparison, economists in the Blue Chip survey expect Japan to grow 2.4 percent and countries that use the euro to expand 1.9 percent."

Are these U.S. based Blue Chip economists assuming this?

Just Curious.

 

[Skip]

Looks like its best to be in cash for the short term... New fed chairman to talk on tuesday...
Leading stocks loss 4.5% for week, They lead the market,Will they lead lower or new leaders emerge ?
Light volume buying on the dip friday..
Whats the boards take ?
Skip


The market's daily volume action provides some insight into big investors' sentiment.
On Friday, volume ended lower across the board. That light trade came on the heels of a distribution day Thursday, the second in the past three sessions.
A bullish reversal in higher volume would have shown conviction among big-money institutions such as mutual funds, pension funds and banks.
Instead, the market responded with a whimper.
Breadth was also unimpressive. NYSE winning stocks slightly topped losers. But falling stocks got the upper hand on the Nasdaq.
The week's two higher-volume sell-offs brought the distribution day count to five each for the Nasdaq and S&P 500 in the past four weeks. That's a level that typically means investors should exercise caution, which is reflected in the Market Pulse's current outlook.
Look again at the Market Pulse, and another red flag emerges. Few leading stocks showed much vigor Friday, despite the major indexes' price advances.

 

[Spaf]

Closing Thread!

Starting a new weekly Thread.

Spaf