Market Talk / Jan. 28 - Feb. 3

[Pilgrim]

Uh -Oh!!

U.S. Jan. ISM manufacturing index 49.3% vs 51.4% in Dec.
By Greg Robb
Last Update: 10:06 AM ET Feb 1, 2007

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Factory activity in the United States contracted in January, the Institute for Supply Management reported Thursday. The ISM index fell to 49.3% in January from 51.4% in December. The decline was unexpected. The consensus forecast of estimates collected by Marketwatch was for the index to rise to 52.0%. A reading below 50 indicates contraction. The index had been above 50 since May 2003 but slipped below that level in two of the past three months. New orders fell to 50.3% in January from 51.9% in December. The employment index inched higher to 49.5% from 49.4%. The price index rose to 53.0% from 47.5%.

 

[The_Technician]

Uh -Oh!!

U.S. Jan. ISM manufacturing index 49.3% vs 51.4% in Dec.
By Greg Robb
Last Update: 10:06 AM ET Feb 1, 2007

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Factory activity in the United States contracted in January, the Institute for Supply Management reported Thursday. The ISM index fell to 49.3% in January from 51.4% in December. The decline was unexpected. The consensus forecast of estimates collected by Marketwatch was for the index to rise to 52.0%. A reading below 50 indicates contraction. The index had been above 50 since May 2003 but slipped below that level in two of the past three months. New orders fell to 50.3% in January from 51.9% in December. The employment index inched higher to 49.5% from 49.4%. The price index rose to 53.0% from 47.5%.

Darn, ain't that a surprise....I either see the economy overheating again, bringing on a higher interest rate, or it cooling off before then....either way the economy needs to idle......

 

[James48843]

I'm seriously thinking today will be a good day to take some more off the table. I'm currently 20% "G", and 40% each "S" and "I". This has been a nice run up to new highs, but I am thinking towards moving perhaps 40 or even 50% into "G" at these high levels, today, and sitting out a few days looking for lower.

Anybody else feel we'll get a nice lower opportunity to buy back in a few days from now?

What do you see in the market over the weekend, and into early next week?

 

[airlift]

I believe it is time to take profits. Better to err on the safe side. There still are 11 months left in the year to make a comeback.
I moved to 100 G. Best wishes to all!

 

[SkiUtah]

Also taking profits and moving to G. First time I will play the post FOMC meeting trend of reversal.

 

[fedgolfer]

... the writing is pretty much on the wall when weighing the econ data against the TA on the charts. I think the vast majority of us are speculating tomorrow's econ rpts will not have the data to surprise the markets to the upside.

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/MarketAnalysis/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

Very interested to hear from those that think the data may provide continued short term stimulus (a few trading days), please respond.

Fed wants slow, controlled growth, econ rpts have reflected this and so have the indices, we may not see that large correction that doomsday naysayers were predicitng for a while. Just measured bulls moves.

Thanks!

 

[James48843]

Seems like the vast majority of those making TSPTALK moves today went to "G" to the lillypad.

We'll see if that was the goo dmove to make.

Best luck to all....

 

[Birchtree]

It is often the trade that is hardest to take, that winds up being the most profitable. It's good to see members heading to the lilly pad - they'll have to chase to get back in the game and pay more to play. Take another look at the 1995 graph that is posted.

 

[Birchtree]

DJTA +61.44 to 4978.26, just give it 21 more points for the final push into the last hour. Come on trains burn that ethanol get up some steam. If this is the epicenter of wave 3 of 3 up right now it can be done. Let's shake the lilly pad with a good wake. Watch'em roll off.

 

[Birchtree]

DJTA +81.16 at 4997.98. Only 2 simple points to go. Snort.

 

[Spaf]

 

[James48843]

There ya go Birch-

Transports hit 5000 briefly.

Day's Range: 4908.48 - 5000.38

 

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Special Edition
Feb. 1, 2007​

TSP Leaders Analysis / 07 Tally​

View attachment 1346​

 

[James48843]

The Kingdom of TSP
Special Edition
Feb. 1, 2007​

TSP Leaders Analysis / 07 Tally​

View attachment 1346​

Wow.

Nice spread sheet. Thanks!

 

[Birchtree]

I bet Mr. Maine-i-ac rockets to the top - pronto. What happens if we see panic buying tomorrow instead of a hammer blow? That much buying will make your feet dance.

 

[James48843]

Looks like we ended about this much:

G: flat at 11.76 (the penny comes monday)
F: perhaps up one cent to 11.15, maybe flat, depending.
C: up .08 cents to 16.01
S: up 15 cents to 19.50
I: up 16 cents to 22.66

or about that, anyway, give or take a little.

and more 07 leaders jumped to the lillypad today.

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
February 01, 2007 Closing ​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Socks advance on tame inflation and lower lube!

Con-Yak...................................February is reportedly a weak month!

Jester-Yak................................Here is hoping for a higher low.

Doodles:
Socks ended up for the day.
Stops.......................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....$SPX.......1445.94 +7.70.........1431.94..........1417.94
.....$EMW.......652.53 +4.84...........646.53...........640.53
.....EFA............74.86 +0.62............74.16.............73.46

Dollar........................................84.64 +0.04 for the day.

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at...............57.30 -0.84 for the day.
Oil Markers.................................<60= ok, 60-65= worry, >65= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles................................Yellow.

Tin Box.
Leaders Ratio / Top 10 .................7.8 ......1.0 ......0.2 ......0.9 .....0.2 ....07 leaders
Leaders Play................................G-fund, F-fund, C-fund, S-fund, I-fund.

 

[weatherweenie]

08:33 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.3. Futures indications are now signaling a higher open for stocks as an encouraging jobs report provides more evidence that a soft landing is on track. The employment report showed a nonfarm payrolls gain of 111K for January (consensus 150K), but payrolls figures for December and November were upwardly revised to account for a net gain of 81K new jobs. Hourly earnings rose just 0.2%, below the 0.3% consensus, further cooling inflationary potential and pushing the year/year rate to 4.0%; the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6% from 4.5%. Bonds are also strengthening as the yield on the 10-year note (+5/32) falls to 4.80%.

 

[James48843]

The employment report showed a nonfarm payrolls gain of 111K for January (consensus 150K), but payrolls figures for December and November were upwardly revised to account for a net gain of 81K new jobs

Isn't that amazing. Consensus was 150K new jobs in january, but only 111K show up. That's 39K fewer than expected. Hmmm.. Bad.

And unemployment? Up. Hmmm.. Bad.

So what do these experts do?

They go back and fudge up some new numbers for the previous two months, and make it look like things are better than they really are.

See? Now everything looks better.

(lipstick on a pig?)

 

[nnuut]

(lipstick on a pig?) Heee! Heeee! I LIKE THAT!!:laugh: