Market Talk / Jan. 28 - Feb. 3

[Nimrod1193]

I agree, it looks like the same old song and dance - S&P found support and is making another move up. But the Fed could surprise us with some hawkish talk tomorrow, and even if they stayed unchanged on rates, it could set up a "sell the news" situation.

That's what I'm afraid of. Couple that with the sell signal and the fact that I am sick as a dog today and might not be coherent enough tomorrow to digest all of the news has caused me to take my I-Fund gains for today and retreat back to the G-Fund.

 

[Wheels]

From briefing.com:

"While the market was pricing in the likelihood of a Fed easing in early 2007, there's also an argument that such a rate cut may jeopardize the Fed's credibility and subsequently renew recession worries. Thus, since the Fed needs to talk tough on inflation-fighting, it is Briefing.com's belief that tomorrow's policy statement will connote a continued bias towards tightening and that the market has been getting a little over-anxious about the possibility of the Fed's next move being a rate hike."

This language would be a surprise to the market making the indices spike higher, correct? How are you all interpretting this?

I disagree. I believe the initial reaction would be a sharp decline. But what has often been the case in recent months/years, it will likely reverse within 15 minutes or so.

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
January 30, 2007 Closing ​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Energy warms socks!

Con-Yak...................................Still have the Fed jitters.

Jester-Yak................................The trend is....sideways!

Doodles:
Socks ended up for the day.
Stops.......................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....$SPX.......1428.82 +8.20.........1426.13..........1412.13
.....$EMW.......644.01 +3.37...........637.26...........631.26
.....EFA............73.96 +0.50............73.76.............73.06

Dollar........................................85.00 -0.12 for the day.

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at...............56.37 +2.96 for the day.
Oil Markers.................................<60= ok, 60-65= worry, >65= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles................................Yellow.

Tin Box.
Leaders Ratio / Top 10 .................1.2 ......0.9 ......0.5 ......2.4 .....5.0 ....07 leaders
Leaders Play................................G-fund, F-fund, C-fund, S-fund, I-fund.

 

[Foghorn]

Here's one more to add to the mix, or better yet, to the mixed signals. I wish I knew what was going to happen.

Foghorn.
___________________________________________________________


From: Fibo Count


Tuesday, January 30, 2007

Sell Signal


A sell signal was generated today. Mkt action is following yesterday's script so far. A selloff after the Fed annoucement and a gap down after google earnings is my expectation for tomorrow and early thursday. A rally to new highs should start thereafter.

http://fibo-count.blogspot.com/2007/01/sell-signal_30.html

 

[Spaf]

Here's one more to add to the mix, or better yet, to the mixed signals. I wish I knew what was going to happen.

Sorry Foghorn, no insider trading here!

STA, has February as a so-so month. I might try a lilly pad for a rest!

 

[weatherweenie]

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.3. An advance read on GDP just showed that the economy grew at a faster than expected 3.5% pace in Q4 (consensus 3.0%). The chain deflator -- a key inflation measure -- ticked lower to 1.5% (consensus 1.6%) from 1.9%, also lending support for a soft landing. The Employment Cost Index checked in at 0.8% (consensus 1.0%).

 

[Birchtree]

Perhaps the DJTA will be the leading indicator for the day; +55.17 to 4843.41.

 

[James48843]

Chop.

 

[weatherweenie]

10:00 am : Not much has changed within the last 30 minutes, even as investors sift through a disappointing update on regional manufacturing activity. The Chicago PMI recently checked in with a reading of 48.8, the lowest level since April 2003. However, even though any reading below 50 shows contraction, which runs counter to reports of late showing an acceleration in economic activity, the report is taking a back seat to today's more encompassing GDP data as well as tomorrow's more influential national ISM manufacturing index.

 

[weatherweenie]

Wow, quite the U turn since 10am eastern.

 

[weatherweenie]

Wow, quite the U turn since 10am eastern.

From another thread: Crude oil and gasoline inventories came in higher than expected. Natural gas lower than expected.

 

[weatherweenie]

It is Briefing.com's belief that the market will learn that the Fed has a stronger bias for raising interest rates than lowering them, as the bulk of surprisingly strong economic data of late

 

[Birchtree]

The DJTA now up +78.01 to 4866.25 pushing real hard to break 4999.

 

[weatherweenie]

sp500 breaks through 1430 on Fed announcement.

 

[weatherweenie]

Faced with a strengthening economy and scant signs of runaway prices, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady on Wednesday while keeping up a verbal guard against potential inflation.
The Fed's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee held overnight interest rates steady at 5.25% and maintained its tilt toward concerns about inflation.
Capping a string of reports showing a stronger-than-expected economy, government data released early on Wednesday showed U.S. output grew at a surprising 3.5% annual rate in the final quarter of 2006, a solid step up from the third quarter's 2%.
That and other economic indicators support the Fed's view that a housing slowdown will not cripple the rest of the economy while steady if sluggish growth tamps down inflation.
Wednesday's data buttressed the Fed's expectations

 

[James48843]

Fed Keeps Interest Rates at 5.25 Percent
Wednesday January 31, 2:19 pm ET

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070131/fed_interest_rates.html?.v=12

By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer

Federal Reserve Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged at 5.25 Percent for Fifth Consecutive Meeting


WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Federal Reserve, faced with a strongly rebounding economy, left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday while repeating concerns about inflation.
The central bank voted to leave the federal funds rate, the interest that banks charge each other, at 5.25 percent, where it has been since last June.

That decision had been widely expected given an economy that is exhibiting better-than-expected growth. While the Fed had been expected to start cutting rates later this year, economists are now worried that the central bank may feel the need to resume raising rates for fear that inflation pressures will not keep easing.

The rate action was supported by a unanimous 11-0 vote of the Federal Open Market Committee, the panel of Fed board members in Washington and regional bank presidents who meet eight times a year to set interest rates.

At the previous four meetings, Jeffrey Lacker, the president of the Richmond Fed regional bank, had dissented in favor of a further boost in rates. However, he is not a voting member of the FOMC this year.

The action means that banks' prime lending rate, the benchmark for millions of consumer and business loans, will remain unchanged at 8.25 percent.

 

[Griffin]

Re: Market Talk / Dec. 10 - 16

Make's you realize just how far off the table a rate drop was. I don't think you will see a rate drop until Lacker agrees to a hold first. They added "substantial" to the housing market bust - that puts a lot of pressure on Lacker. Next time he won't vote to raise.

Lacker did not dissent - a few more months and we might actually see a drop.

 

[weatherweenie]

Re: Market Talk / Dec. 10 - 16

Lacker did not dissent - a few more months and we might actually see a drop.

CNBC said Lacker is no longer a voting member.

 

[weatherweenie]

Market getting higher than me on my codeine cough syrup!

 

[weatherweenie]

Russell 2000 at all time high per CNBC hottie Erin.