Market Talk / Feb. 5 - Feb. 11

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Sunday-Weekly
Early Edition
Feb. 05, 2006​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves, and The Tin Box.

Kingdom Yak:


Market Yak............ Volatility in the energy sector is unnerving the market! Growth of the manufacturing sector is being slowed by the rising energy cost. Vestors also worry about continued rate hikes due to inflation and tight labor market. Until the market can see an end to rate hikes, and is assured that inflation is controlled, it's difficult to see a breakout upside.

Other Yak.............. Mr. Market is still stuck in the 2006 trading range 1287 (resistance) to 1259 (support) [$SPX]. Currently nearing the support level. Will it be a whipsaw back up, or a break out to the downside?

Doodles:
Socks................... S&P 500 ($SPX)
Closed at.............. 1264.03, dn -19.69 for the week.
Money flow............ +0.114, decreasing.
Averages............... +1.75, decreasing.
Slow STO.............. 40.59, decreasing.
Overbought/sold..... [70] 44.6 [30]
Stops.................... NA.

Chart.................... 6mo., 20dMA, P-SAR, MACD, RSI (Attached).

Lube..................... Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at............... 65.37, dn -2.39 for the week.
Markers:................ <60 = ok, 60-65 = worry, >65 = critical.

Tea leaves:
Charts and Stuff...... Yellow/Red.

The Tin Box:
Position.................. 100G.
TSP Ended: G=11.20 F=10.67 C=13.74 S=17.12 I=18.42
Last Week: G=11.19 F=10.68 C=13.95 S=17.27 I=18.60

 

[Wizard]

Garden variety - head and shoulders.

 

[JOVARN]

SPAF:
I am waiting for support level S&P to hit 1230. With oil at $65 and Iran on everyone’s mind we may it this week. Then again I may miss the boat for this trip but be certain there will be other sailings. I am still up 9.6% for the past 4 months and I hate to part with any of it.

EVENTS this week.
The Fed will be in focus again this week as two Federal Reserve Bank presidents speak out on the economy. On Monday, Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher will speak in London, while Chicago Fed President Michael Moskow will address the local economy in a Chicago speech Thursday. Given the new uncertainty over when the Fed, both speeches will be thoroughly parsed by strategists and could move stocks -- though there's no telling where.

 

[Spaf]

SPAF:
I am waiting for support level S&P to hit 1230. With oil at $65 and Iran on everyone’s mind we may it this week.

1230 would be good, that would get us out of range bound. We need some warm weather. March 20, spring begins.

Wiz is saying sell the head and shoulders! http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/head_and_shoulders.htm

Hmmm

 

[Wizard]

Booyah homegamers!

http://www.stockcharts.com/education/ChartAnalysis/headShouldersTop.html

 

[teknobucks]

1230 would be good, that would get us out of range bound. We need some warm weather. March 20, spring begins.

Wiz is saying sell the head and shoulders! http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/head_and_shoulders.htm

Hmmm

the more u stare at a chart the more head and shoulders u will c....LOL

 

[Spaf]

EEK!

 

[Wizard]

S&P 500 stocks remain in the Distribution Phase. Last week, the ratio of stocks in an uptrend to a downtrend (i.e. the up/down ratio) fell for the third consecutive week from 2.81 to (307/123=) 2.50. Only 18 stocks broke resistance (including two on Friday: MYL, CVS). Thirty five stocks broke support (including 19 stocks on Friday: SNA, ECL, GTW, APCC, SGP, WPI, HCA, STJ, DHI, LEN, FISV, PCAR, UPS, ED, ETR, CNP, AIG, MTG, PCL). Notable sectors with technical breakdowns last week included Home Builders, Utilities and Insurance.

 

[Wizard]

On the open: A gap and crap. Did not see that coming.

 

[Pilgrim]

Pardon my ignorance: What is a "gap and crap"?

 

[Birchtree]

What valley?

Remember when stocks looked like a sure thing to most people in 2000? Now that place has been taken by real estate, and many people now see stocks as inherently risky and dangerous. This is classic mentality. Hope they all enjoy their new porches.

Dennis

 

[The_Technician]

Looks

like the I fund is getting hit hard with a power down shot early this morning..gong to 60 or so... ..S&P can't maintain the 570 mark....it will need to if to stay or continue up.....

Every thing looks bleak in one of the weakest months on the investment calendar...

 

[Wizard]

Pardon my ignorance: What is a "gap and crap"?

Futures deep green all night and 20 minutes after the open the market reversing.

At the open DOW futures were up 21.

 

[Birchtree]

Rock wall of worry

Worry is good. Worried about the absence of any serious correction while major cycle low is due for this autum. The longer the overdue correction remains absent the steeper the coming decline will be. That should cause some hesitation in the minds of young aspiring bulls - what if the 4-year cycle low already arrived a year early - then what? Let the secular bull megatrend ride on and become even more expensive. The train is leaving the station - cross currents included.

Dennis

 

[Wizard]

Who is deleting my posts?

Sorry board. Wizard is gone.

DOW Feb 6, 2000 - 10963
DOW Feb 6, 2006 - 10800

Someone deleted that post.

In response to this:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Remember when stocks looked like a sure thing to most people in 2000? Now that place has been taken by real estate, and many people now see stocks as inherently risky and dangerous. This is classic mentality. Hope they all enjoy their new porches.

Dennis

----------

I am gone. It appears this is Birchy's board.

Good luck. BYE.

 

[mlk_man]

Enough of the name calling boys. It really isn't needed.

 

[Birchtree]

Key stroke problem

Milk-man,

I ment to type Wizard and it came out Lizard - simply a common error.

How long will he be gone?

I wanted to find out what the last consumer spending numbers were - I believe they were above expectations, but not sure. Do you know?

Dennis

 

[Wizard]

If pointing out a fact is name calling............then you can have this board.



Delete the post? - Stocks are so much higher in 2000????? 163 points. Yeah.

Birchy called Wimpy a fool and that stays.

Good luck..

(wonder how soon this gets deleted???? )

 

[Birchtree]

Wimpy is no fool - just wrong on his vision - IMHO

What I said was that the Mogambu Guru had more sense than Wimpy. There was no name calling. Matter of fact the Mogambu Guru certainly has more cents than I do - but that doesn't mean he has more sense - that's only relevant to idealogy. Wizard, lighten up.

Dennis

 

[Rod]

Contrarian all the way... that's where the mad $$$ is for this week.

ALL ABOard!

BTW, is the site slow (as in speed) to you all, or is it just me???

God Bless