Market Talk / Feb. 19 - 25

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Sunday-Weekly
Early Edition
Feb. 19, 2006

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves, and The Tin Box.

Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak............ Dancing in a range!
Other Yak.............. Put another log on the fire!

Doodles:
Socks................... S&P 500 ($SPX)
Closed at.............. 1266.99, up +20.25 for the week.
Money flow........... +0.111, increasing.
Averages.............. +2.45, increasing.
Slow STO............. +90.21, increasing.
Overbought/sold..... [70] 59.1 [30]
Stops................... NA.
Chart................... 6mo., 50dMA, MACD, RSI (Attached).

Lube.................... Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at.............. 61.29, dn -0.55 for the week.
Markers:............... <60 = ok, 60-65 = worry, >65 = critical.

Tea leaves:
Charts and Stuff..... Yellow.

The Tin Box:
Position................. 100G.
TSP Ended: G=11.22 F=10.69 C=14.01 S=17.18 I=18.29
1----Week: G=11.21 F=10.65 C=13.78 S=16.94 I=18.28
2---Weeks: G=11.20 F=10.67 C=13.74 S=17.12 I=18.42

 

[Birchtree]

Nicky up 475

Whew, I'm ready to play catch up - got to get off the tracks because the train is on the way. Futures also look good this AM. Please Mr Custer, can I have a 200 point Dow day?

Dennis

 

[The_Technician]

Looks to be a

turning point in the making....I'm going to start looking for a downdraft of sorts till when......April....

 

[Spaf]

Hum

Hey Birch,
Your drawing sabers!
Tech,
Your drawing shovels!

Interesting! Got to interview the Indians and get their take!

 

[Wizard]

Whew, I'm ready to play catch up - got to get off the tracks because the train is on the way. Futures also look good this AM. Please Mr Custer, can I have a 200 point Dow day?

Dennis

Yes we are playing catch up. Japan is coming out of a recession and we are going into one.

FOMC minutes are hawkish you could have your DOW 200 point day.

 

[The_Technician]

Not to take anything away from

Hey Birch,
Your drawing sabers!
Tech,
Your drawing shovels!

Interesting! Got to interview the Indians and get their take!

Birchy Spaf, but if things happened the way he says they will, we will fall into hyperinflation and then interest rates would escalate.. ....therefore, there is a damper on his foresight....my way includes a new buying opportunity after no inflationary pressures, but if we sit still for a while and go nowhere we can hold status quo until time comes for a new move... .which as we stand, could be a long time.....year or two.....and this may very well happen....

 

[Wizard]

G fund should pay the .01 today .

 

[JOVARN]

Whats up with the G fund pay out I thought that would have occured a few days ago. I thought the delay was from the Treasury Dept, as they are suspending investments in the G-fund?


Looks like a short term buying opportunity if the NASDAQ can hold the support level of 2260.
AP
Stocks Fall on Fears of Future Rate Hikes
Tuesday February 21, 3:06 pm ET

Overseas, Japan's Nikkei stock average rose 2.96 percent. Britain's FTSE 100 was down 0.09 percent, Germany's DAX index was up 0.12 percent, and France's CAC-40 was up 0.24 percent.
If the Dollars stays under wraps we may have a nice day tomorrow.

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
Feb. 21, 2006​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves, and The Tin Box.

Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak........... Socks slip on growing gas, tighter techs, and rumbling rates.
Other Yak............. Kind of like the half pipe!

Doodles:
Socks.................. S&P 500 ($SPX)
Closed at............. 1283.03, dn -4.21
Money flow........... +0.134, increasing.
Stops.................. NA.
Averages............. +2.86, increasing.
Slow STO............. +90.18, flat.
Overbought/sold.... [70] 56.1 [30]

Lube.................... Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at.............. 62.74, up +1.45
Markers:............... <60 = ok, 60-65 = worry, >65 = critical.

Tea leaves:
Charts and Stuff..... Yellow.

The Tin Box:
Position................. 100%G.

 

[Birchtree]

More bounce per ounce

The Indians (odd lot shorts) are at all time record levels.
Six of the LEI 10 components strengthed in January.
There are so many indexes sitting just under the radar ready to pop to the upside - I simply have to be BULLISH.
Dow transports, Dow utilities, NYSE composite are all just treading water waiting for the breakout move. My energy stocks kept me afloat today. But boy this thing really feels good for much more upside - may blow right past Dow 11,722.98 with ease - you choir folks just don't over strain your tender necks from looking up too long. This could be sweet. We may be ready to pre-empt the interest rate pause that is in the making - such a long ways to go before March 28th. Take care.

Dennis - got to be bullish.

 

[Wizard]

6 month - 4.49%
30 year - 4.48%

overnight rate - 4.5%

 

[Fivetears]

The Dreaded 3 Dots.

PREDATOR.
Cool Wizard.

.....

. ....

 

[JOVARN]

Why the big move to the I fund for tomorrow? Am I not seeing the forest thru the trees?
Spread the news

 

[cowboy]

The question may not be why but possibly why not? It's all about risk. Feel the force Luke Skywalker! Then hope your a good pilot and have a fast ship.

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
Feb. 22, 2006​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves, and The Tin Box.

Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak............ An AM rally, but no breakout. Surreal or Real? Around the corner looms the Cartel creature.
Other Yak.............. Did some buyers get a little over optimistic, because futures slid in oil?
TSP Yak................ EFA is out of the rut and running. $USD is ready to fall.

Doodles:
Socks................... S&P 500 ($SPX)
Closed at.............. 1292.67, up +9.63
Money flow............ +0.126, increasing.
Stops................... NA.
Averages............... +3.92, increasing.
Slow STO.............. 88.97, decreasing.
Overbought/sold..... [70] 61.0 [30] {careful}

Lube..................... Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at............... 61.01, dn -1.73
Markers:................ <60 = ok, 60-65 = worry, >65 = critical.

Tea leaves:
Charts and Stuff..... Yellow.

The Tin Box:
Position................. 100%G.

 

[TiCKed]

Anyone care to expound (briefly) on how the "Overbought/Oversold" numbers are arrived at?

Understand in general that it's a measure of whether current price is "too high" or "too low". But wondering what goes into the indicator.

Obviously the price alone can't be the flag since who knows what something is "worth" until you try to sell it! It's always the "right" price. Must be based on trends, or fundamentals, or something not obvious.

Inquiring minds want to know!

 

[FundSurfer]

Why....

Why the big move to the I fund for tomorrow? Am I not seeing the forest thru the trees?
Spread the news

I only noticed Systemtrader, Cowboy and myself making big moves into I-fund. I moved in because the I-fund is overdue and because it is showing signs of life. The I-fund seems to lag the S & C at times. Add to this that the dollar is also due to begin to fall since it has gone through a recent rising trend.

Hey, like Cowboy said, it is a gamble but hopefully an educated gamble.

 

[Birchtree]

Good news bears

For the BULLS, the best of all news right now would be for the NYSE and mid and small cap areas to continue to trudge higher with any further high cap rally in the SPX and OEX.

Lots of close yearly highs today: mid cap 400 (2 points away), small cap 600 (1 point away), S&P 500 (2 points away), Wilshire 5000 has a new high, Dow transports has a new high, Russel 2000 (2 points away), NYSE composite new all time high. All the fools that are short will have to go higher to cover - nose bleed time.

Dennis

 

[robo]

Overbought/Oversold

Anyone care to expound (briefly) on how the "Overbought/Oversold" numbers are arrived at?

Ticked,

Some info on overbought/oversold.

http://www.tradingday.com/c/tatuto/overboughtoversoldoverload.html



Some use the Bull/Bear ratios, but is misleading. When you run out of Bulls who is left to buy???? The market can go much higher while being overbought... But take notice when we hit extreme levels!!! Extremely Overbought the risk reward is high. Hope this helps some.

GUIDELINES:

We consider this data to be generally bullish for the market when the bull ratio drops to 29% and below. We consider it bearish for the market beginning with bull ratio readings of 53% and above.



LOWRISK BULL RATIO
Since 1997
Extremely Overbought 74%
Overbought 60%
Oversold 32%
Extremely Oversold 17%

 

[robo]

The charts and some TA's support your move

Hey, like Cowboy said, it is a gamble but hopefully an educated gamble.[/QUOTE]

FundSurfer,

Good luck on your move. The technicals, which are not always correct, support your move. I'm still in the I Fund for now...

Good investing/trading!!!