Market Talk / Feb. 19 - 25

[Spaf]

Overbought/Oversold

There are several momentun indicators that indicate overbought / oversold conditions.

I like using the relative strength index. Because, most of the stock charts on the internet have that indicator.

See Forum TSP Strategies and then Technical Analysis. You will see RSI

Or go here: http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/relative_strength_index.htm

Spaf

 

[JOVARN]

I was able to read Toms text portion of his daily report but the charts did not load. Is this just my computer ?

 

[mlk_man]

I had the same problem.

 

[JOVARN]

We may be able to squeeze out another day or so as the talking heads are leaving Iran out of the headlines and oil has maintained its range. I am a bit nervous that the saber rattling as cooled off, I hope the innocent have put at 15 layers of sand bags over their hooch’s. Oh well, for some life will go on.
As advancing issues outpaced decliners by a margin of nearly 11 to 5 on the NYSE and by nearly 5 to 3 on Nasdaq. I believe that many will want to climb aboard Birchtree’s space craft, as the market travels to where no man/woman has gone before. ( I took that from star trek)
I am 60S 30I 10C but I am counting the hours when I can take a nap with the comforts of the G fund as my pillow. Yes I may miss blast off but like all that is holy, what goes up has to come down and boarding will then proceed as planned.
Good Luck

 

[Spaf]

Rats

Mike,

Lets not take any drastic action yet, Tom can always reload his pics!

Spaf

 

[mlk_man]

10-4!! I think I might be able to fix your monitor too..........

 

[Birchtree]

Bungie rope bounce?

I was going to make a comment about the components of the NYSE breadth MCO remaining on a buy signal and the NYSE breadth MCSUM moving upside from its current ledge pattern - but sometimes prudence is the better part of valor. Looks like I'll need a bungie rope bounce today to get out of this initial hole from this AM - but then it will be a long day - I'll stay tuned waiting for the Technician to warn of more pain to be delivered. This is probably an excellent opportunity to make some intraday purchases in the energy patch.

What's the problem with the gold dome - it wasn't long ago Sardar was using them as shelter to fire on our forces. Let him finally prove he is capable of returning justice to those that are criminal. He wants to be productive and now is his chance to stand up - our forces should just provide the logistical back up.

 

[tsptalk]

I was able to read Toms text portion of his daily report but the charts did not load. Is this just my computer ?

Sorry about that. They should be OK now... www.tsptalk.com/comments.html

 

[mlk_man]

Sorry about that. They should be OK now... www.tsptalk.com/comments.html

Thanks Tom!

I was looking at your first graph of the Dow and I noticed the red outlines that you made around the last 6 years. Is this the atypical "Crack Pipe Theory" that we are now in as opposed to the "Cup And Handle Theory"? If so, what's next...................

 

[Birchtree]

Ask who?

Let's ask Rolo. If anybody knows, certainly he knows. Gimme a break here.

 

[mlk_man]

LOL

 

[Fivetears]

Charting Curiosity?

Sorry about that. They should be OK now... www.tsptalk.com/comments.html

Curiosity has got me again. Is it possible... the DOW 19-yr chart you have up showing all the massive market gains from 1997-2002, are a direct reflection of ACCESS to the market. The biggest gains shown launching in 2000 are a direct reflection of T-1 / DSL ACCESS to the markets?

These gains seem to correlate with the gaining popularity of the home computer, and a resulting gaining popularity of home based investing.

Are charts like these going to take a while (years) to leave their respective trails for us to get used to reading for the purpose of passing long term investment judgments?

 

[Birchtree]

Overdrive - you bet!

As Tom has been saying, everday that goes by, there are more similarities to today's internals to that of the 1995/1996 period. Good move on the S fund so far today - I like being wrong on this particular fund direction.

CPI has apparently lessened the fear about higher rates on the near term. There are many sector charts in bullish configuration now as at the 2003 lows. I'd gladly sacrifice 1995 if I could please have another 2003 - ah that greed factor has a hoof on my throttle pedal.

If we do indeed get a 4-year cycle bottom, it will more than likely take place at higher price levels than where we are at the current time. Of course I believe we had it already a year earlier. Frankly, the character of this market has to be defined as impressive - especially yesterday and now today, there are new price pattern breakouts all over the place. Less than 1 point away on the R2K. R1K is already at new highs - which means the SPX momentum is getting fueled now for a solid break to the upside. The SPX breadth MCSUM broke above its declining tops line yesterday. That has to be a harbinger of someting under the radar to indicate ignition and blast off to at least above 1305 on the SPX.

 

[The_Technician]

Dollar

looks to begin a weaking period....expecting a drop from 1.19 to 1.18 $-Euro conversion ....

I don't think 1995 compares to today Birch.....but maybe someone can fill us in with the similar aspects....

March looks like it could be slick.... ....

 

[The_Technician]

Dang if I didn't

looks to begin a weaking period....expecting a drop from 1.19 to 1.18 $-Euro conversion ....

I don't think 1995 compares to today Birch.....but maybe someone can fill us in with the similar aspects....

March looks like it could be slick.... ....

do it again.....I meant to say that the Euro looks to be weakening.......sometimes...

 

[tsptalk]

I was looking at your first graph of the Dow and I noticed the red outlines that you made around the last 6 years. Is this the atypical "Crack Pipe Theory" that we are now in as opposed to the "Cup And Handle Theory"? If so, what's next...................

Good observation. Since that is a 19 year chart things may not play out too quickly but yes, and that is another case for the "big move" I am expecting sometime this year.

Tom

 

[Birchtree]

I'll do the departures

The Federal Reserve finds slowest increase in American's net worth in over a decade - isn't that the good bad news they need to pause. That's one similarity.

Only this time there is a departure:
the NYAD is at all time highs,
the NYUD is at all time highs,
the NAUD is within striking distance of all time highs,

There is more money trading these days which is partially the reason why we are as high as we are on the NYSE data - the necks were talking about it today - seems like the individual investor is on scene. I look forward to selling them some small cap funds - and as much as they can purchase to help me lighten my financial burden.

 

[The_Technician]

I'll

be on vacation for the next month or so and I may or may not be posting during that time... ....I can't tell yet what kinda of access I will have to the internet. Until then, hope things start to look better and I hope you all will keep your guard up in March......its an unpredictable month and seeing everything is higher than high....I will be looking out for the possible downdraft.......

Cheers!!!

 

[Birchtree]

We'll

play while you are resting - come back if we hit Dow 11,722.98.

Dennis

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
Feb. 23, 2006​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves, and The Tin Box.

Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak............ Home on the Range [it's stock rustling!] http://disney.go.com/disneyvideos/animatedfilms/homeontherange/main.html
Other Yak.............. Lube supplies up, futures down.
TSP Yak................ Run little Eafe run!

Doodles:
Socks................... S&P 500 ($SPX)
Closed at.............. 1287.79, dn -4.88
Money flow............ +0.149, increasing.
Stops................... NA.
Averages............... +4.32, increasing.
Slow STO.............. 85.80, decreasing.
Overbought/sold..... [70] 57.5 [30]

Lube..................... Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at............... 60.54, dn -0.47
Markers:................ <60 = ok, 60-65 = worry, >65 = critical.

Tea leaves:
Charts and Stuff..... Yellow.

The Tin Box:
Position................. 100%G.