They are all Shouting Cash Big Bull
Birchtree,
Could be a Contraian indicator, but all the TA's I follow are staying in cash. I'm hoping it breaks out soon for you my friend. Listing some of their current daily comments below: I also get Henry's newsletter, but you know his Market Thoughts. Short the Dow...
Currently invested in International funds only.
Tech 1: An upside breakout is due any moment, but it will start from a dull neutral position -- not a high-potential oversold condition.
AT A GLANCE: Most of the 29 indicators remain neutral, but even a small rally will produce a Quick Summary Index buy signal and will also push the three major indices to 4-plus year highs. Unfortunately, a small rally will be subject to a reversal unless there is immediate positive follow-through. The most reliable rallies generally start from oversold conditions, and the present market is neutral.
Tech 2:Thursday, February 23rd. -
Yesterday's comment: "The Risk of remaining long has a negative Reward of -10% attached to it (a 10%+ loss).
The Reward for staying long has about a 3% to 4% up side potential, but with only a 45% chance of success.
As of the close Tuesday, that means you are risking 3 points down for every 1 point up in the market. That is a bad risk/reward equation. Remain in cash.
That still leaves a 45% up condition and the short term may give us that. The DOW is 6 tenth's of 1% away from a Major Resistance point, Institutions are buying slightly more while not selling much, and Selling Pressures are moving sideways.
This is a condition that short term and day traders may want to play. See today's update for a complete discussion of the market conditions and how that relates to the question of ... "What do I want for Risk/Reward market investment opportunities, and do I want Short Term moves, Long Term moves, or both?" **** Intra-day market volatility could be very high under these conditions.
My personal stance is this ... I will personally stand back and remain in cash, as the risk/reward equation is not sufficient for my personal standards. Short term and day traders will trade this as they are higher risk, fast moving investors.
Tech 3:********* Thursday Feb 23 10:40 AM ET ***********
We have an overbought market in SPX and INDU. NDX is weak. Semiconductor Holdrs (SMH) are weak also. Not a good sign for the bulls. Our proprietary charts will be updated on the Special Delivery page over the weekend. At this time they APPEAR to be in a bottoming formation and a couple of them have actually turned to BUY signals. There is no Buy/Sell consensus at this time
Tech 4: We noted yesterday the pretty classic signs of uptrend behavior we've been witnessing, namely the ability of the broader market to rally off even mediocre short-term oversold readings, and the equally impressive tendency to hold or even rally in the face of short-term overbought conditions. Still, we don't want to be trying to buy into those kinds of overbought readings, the risk/reward is just not adequate enough, but when we cycle down to oversold, that is another story altogether.
If we do see more of a correction in the coming days, and our intraday guides become oversold, we will be looking for entries on the long side.
Tech 5:Closing Comment
A couple of good rules for a market analyst (and trader) are: Be objective and be flexible!
OK. Looks like we're making a top, not a low. And I am going to stick to 1297 as the potential target.
What about my cycle? Well, I have to do some more thinking about that. I had put it in the category of "conventional" cycles, which do not invert but are measured from low to low. This one may have to be moved over to the list of CIT cycles, change-in-trend points, which can either bring a high or a low reversal in the market. I have readily discussed the 72w cycle in the past -- the half-span of which, 36w can also have an effect and which, by the way, is due in the middle of next month. Could we be preparing for a 2/3 week decline? It's beginning to look like that. I'm gonna take a very hard look at that.
Anyway, on the Point and Figure chart especially, this is looking more and more like a top, and it does not look like it's get it donet today, so let's see what happens tomorrow.
Dennis I have more, but you get the idea. Do you think I get to many services? I never have big years, but I haven't had a negative year in a long time. I do enjoy these guys Technical and Market Insights, and their services are still cheaper than going to Las Vegas... GO GO Birchtree!!!!!
The Trend is your Friend! Good investing/Trading!
Spaf
Right?
