Market Talk / Nov. 19 - Nov. 25

[Birchtree]

I'd like to see a strong pump up in the Dow Transports - take us back to 4998.95 to confirm the DJIA. Whew that would send the cows over the moon.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

Paulson speaking, "U.S. Markets are the shiznit". VIX falls to intraday low

 

[James48843]

Bonds not looking so bad after all today, eh?

At least at the moment this is posted (2:43 pm) the "F" fund (agg) is beating both the "S" and "C" by fractions, and is way ahead of "I" today. How it will close, no one knows.....

News article below- a nice read. : Bonds for newbies.

Nice writeup about why someone would look at bonds to diversify. It's not very sexy, but over the long haul the "F" fund does have it's advantages....

http://yahoo.businessweek.com/investor/content/nov2006/pi20061109_751561.htm

 

[fedgolfer]

... re: f-fund, anything >.04% will give the F fund a penny... it'll need .14% to gain 2 pennies... probably unlikely. If AGG stays in its pattern we're looking at a flat day or a penny for the F.

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
November 20, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Why are we stopping?

Con-Yak...................................Had to let a few profits off!

Jester-Yak................................Sock shock!

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1400.50, dn -0.70
Stops......................................Alert: 1386. Trail: 1373
Trend (MACD-Hist)....................decreasing at +1.328.
Overbought/sold (S-STO)...........[80] 91.92 [20] slight increase.

Lube (NYM) Closed at.................58.80, dn -0.17
Oil Markers...............................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles.............................Yellow.

Tin Box:
TSP........................................Safe; capital preservation.

 

[weatherweenie]

11/20

G unchanged
F +0.01
C unchanged
S +0.06
I -0.12

 

[Oldcoin]

MARK HULBERT
It was nice while it lasted
Commentary: For contrarians, the handwriting is on the wall


http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Sto...D47-64BEB2D05729}&siteid=myyahoo&dist=myyahoo

Here is some bearish news….just so we don’t get too over confident.

 

[Spaf]

MARK HULBERT
It was nice while it lasted
Commentary: For contrarians, the handwriting is on the wall


http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Sto...D47-64BEB2D05729}&siteid=myyahoo&dist=myyahoo

Here is some bearish news….just so we don’t get too over confident.

Sounds like risk vs reward!.....:worried:

 

[Birchtree]

There is no reason to be in a hurry. I may indeed remove another 2% to G in another 60 days just to buy that insurance. I still want to accumulate more C fund shares but I think the $14.00 range is gone for good. Where is my melt up?

 

[Birchtree]

Gosh, I sure could use a little momentum today.

 

[SkiUtah]

Not a short term bottom, only one way to go from here.....

3:30 pm : Going into the close, stocks continue to trade with little fanfare. It is worth noting, though, that the VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) is making new 12-year lows, further underscoring a lack of "fear" in the market. Yesterday, the VIX closed below 10 for the first time since 1994 and is at its lowest levels since December 1993. The index's decline suggests investors are actively buying call options in anticipation that a short-term bottom has been put in place that will keep the four-month rally on track. DJ30 +4.57 NASDAQ -1.05 SP500 +1.64 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1546/1438/1.37 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1318/1936/1.18 bln

 

[fedgolfer]

... I've been carefully watching the VIX during the bull run since tech indicators are all overbought... but I've had trouble timing my days just right with it. It backfired on me late Oct/early Nov as I thought it broke above the upper trendline. I guess I'm trying to say, the VIX plays trix. If someone has a good method of using this, please share.

 

[Birchtree]

Good pin action today for me. Farm equipment and steel - boring but profitable.

 

[ayla]

... I've been carefully watching the VIX during the bull run since tech indicators are all overbought... but I've had trouble timing my days just right with it. It backfired on me late Oct/early Nov as I thought it broke above the upper trendline. I guess I'm trying to say, the VIX plays trix. If someone has a good method of using this, please share.

fedgolfer - did you see this article about the VIX on "today.reuters.com" - didn't really say they had high confidence that VIX was a good indicator but they basically said it was so extreme that "something may be up" or to that effect at least:

http://tinyurl.com/y3dcsf

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
November 21, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................We still have a short term left!

Con-Yak...................................Crude's above 60! Problems with supplies and pipelines!

Jester-Yak................................Indecisions, indecisions!

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1402.81, up +2.31
Stops......................................Alert: 1389. Trail: 1376
Trend (MACD-Hist)....................decreasing at +1.164.
Overbought/sold (S-STO)...........[80] 93.83 [20] increasing.

Lube (NYM) Closed at.................60.17, up +1.37
Oil Markers...............................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles.............................Yellow.

Tin Box:
TSP........................................Safe; capital preservation.

 

[Birchtree]

Forget my melt up - make my tomorrow just like today and I'm a happy camper. It's hard to fathom this may last for years...but I've had plenty of time to prepare and I'm so ready.

 

[Spaf]

Yep Birch,
It's nice to be a happy camper!...............

 

[weatherweenie]

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.0.

 

[weatherweenie]

08:32 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.8. After a two-day hiatus of anything of note on the economic calendar, investors are sifting through the latest update on labor conditions which was compiled during the same week as the November payrolls data. Weekly jobless claims rose 12,000 to 321,000 (consensus 310,000).

 

[Birchtree]

Whoa DJIA don't blow the top so soon - we got all day to be buying.