Market Talk / Nov. 26 - Dec. 2

[Birchtree]

Why do you think the Fed has been pumping the monetary base - don't listen to what they say, but rather waych what they do. There is definitely an interest rate reduction on the way sooner rather than later. We have a Fed engineered slow down with minimal inflation. Goldilocks.

 

[Pilgrim]

Also said that a rate cut 'might' need to happen sooner than expected.

Yep, I expect that by Monday, maybe even this afternoon, this will be seen as "good" news. Timing will be difficult given our deadline. I had hoped to jump back into I, but with the dollar dropping today, it might rebound on Monday.

 

[Pilgrim]

More from CNBC: Seven of the individual ISM components were less than 50, indicating a contraction, all in the domestic sector. The two components related to imports and exports were up. Prices paid were up, indicating continuing price inflation.

 

[Beavis]

I wonder why they suggested using 27 pay periods instead of 26?

It depends on when your paydate is. Every so often (about every 10 years I think) you get 27 pay periods instead of 26. We had the same last year.

 

[Birchtree]

Once this panic foreign selling is completed we may head higher - it's good to see this intraday volatility and I'm sure we'll be seeing more of it. We are in the game with the big boyz now. This is how day traders make their money.

 

[ayla]

Once this panic foreign selling is completed we may head higher - it's good to see this intraday volatility and I'm sure we'll be seeing more of it. We are in the game with the big boyz now. This is how day traders make their money.

VIX (Volatility Index) is up 5%.

 

[James48843]

Dollar is getting clobbered too. Look at what it's done in the last hour vs. the yen-


http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=USDJPY=X&t=1d

 

[ATCJeff]

I wonder why they suggested using 27 pay periods instead of 26?

27 pp's next year.

 

[VirginiaBob]

Does each paycheck go down since our salary is divided by 27 instead of 26?

27 pp's next year.

 

[James48843]

Does each paycheck go down since our salary is divided by 27 instead of 26?

Nope.

 

[fedgolfer]

VIX (Volatility Index) is up 5%.

http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#chart2:symbol=^vix;range=3m;indicator=sma(820)+bollinger+psar+wpr(15);charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;logscale=on;source=undefined

...if the trend continues, today is setting up for another great buying op Its fun being on the plus side of the up and down volatility!!! Let's hope the trend is our friend the next few days.

 

[ATCJeff]

Does each paycheck go down since our salary is divided by 27 instead of 26?

No. Nothing changed except you get paid 27 times this year because of where your actual pay date falls.

In the FAA we have a 10 day delay before you get paid for a pay period(every 2 weeks). This year our first pay date is Jan 2 for time between Dec 10 through Dec 23.

Because we get paid on the 2nd, the IRS treats this as income for 2007.

The above is for hourly employees. Now if you are a salary employee, all bets are off!

 

[Birchtree]

The DJUA is currently placing a new all-time high right now. There is a good article on Safehaven where an Elliott guy talks about the 5th wave in the utility index is peaking - I don't think so. Most of the time new highs in this index are sending a signal that there is safety going forward for at least another 3 months.

 

[grandma]

Pay day is every two weeks. There are still only 26 pay periods. But if your agency's payperiod ends at the end of the year - the last Saturday , Dec 30 - like this year - that means your bank will be credited January 5th - auto deposit. (it is then counted by the IRS as Jan 2007 income.) Pay period #25 ends Dec 30, and #26 will end January13 '07.
...whether leap year causes the problem, or what, I don't understand it.
(and don't need to anymore !! )

It also means that if your agency schedules AL by payperiods, and not by calendar year, you will need to be aware you might lose out for early Jan AL if you haven't figured the payperiods right.

I suppose not all agencies operate the same - this is the Veteran's Admin. way.

 

[TiCKed]

The above is for hourly employees. Now if you are a salary employee, all bets are off!

Can't speak for sure for all "salary employees", but I think the oddity of Federal pay is that everyone is treated as hourly. (Divide salary by number of hours, and *boom*, you have your hourly wage).

Like everyone, we have to put in our 80 hours per pay period....no free ride. :embarrest:

 

[mlk_man]

Our agency should pay us on Dec 29th but they are holding our pay until Jan 2nd. I thought it was something about not having the money to pay us this year so they're holding it to pay us next year or something..............

 

[ayla]

Declining issues outpacing advancing issues by at least 30% on all exchanges.

http://finance.yahoo.com/advances

I think this is the indicator James uses - looks VERY interesting to me.

 

[Birchtree]

You've heard it before but on a day like today it's worth repeating. You have to be very careful in not getting emotionally motivated that a change of trend has occurred - it hasn't. With the MCSUM's still very high any declines will tend to be of the intraday variety at this stage. Have no fear.

 

[James48843]

It is a key one to watch- but just one thing to watch.

Also- the point chart for "S&P energy" reversed- another warning sign.

Make some room for me in the bear cave- I'll toss my sleeping bag in the corner.

I think we are near a top, but the continued strength amazes me. Despite my gut telling me to bail out, I'm holding one more day to see what Monday brings.

 

[James48843]

G.W. has altered the way Locality Pay is paid out.

This message just hit my inbox:
+++++++++++++++++++++++

(From OPM)

Under current law, General Schedule employees will receive a 1.7 percent across-the-board pay increase effective the first pay period beginning on or after January 1, 2007.

On November 30, 2006, the President issued a plan setting locality pay rates for 2007. The President’s plan provides an additional 0.5 percent of payroll for locality pay increases, bringing the total overall average pay increase to 2.2 percent.

The President’s locality pay plan is on the Internet at http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2006/11/20061130-17.html. We expect the President will issue an Executive Order to implement the new rates later in the month.

(Each locality's rates are at the link above. )