Market Talk / Jan. 22 - 28

[Cortez]

Except yesterday, in the S&P and Dow there was buying in the last hour. The Dax and FTSE on tuesday, was up then sold at the end, but yesterday was different, buying in the end. The Dax and S&P follow similar chart paths. The S&P still has some catching up to do. With the S and I up decent, the C is sure to follow. Time it right and make a little extra $$. Also the risk at this point may be much greater than catching the reward. I also look for the DAX and FTSE to retest their recent lows again before moving on.

The SPX did not test yesterday's lows as of noon today - a sign of strength confirmed by the Dow, TRANS, IWM and DWCP. I have whipsaws spinning 'round in the back of my head but it looks like a successful test of support yesterday is being confirmed with today's holding of the gap open price and extending above that level. If we can close at 1275+ we are running until a retest of the Jan highs.

I'd rather make money than be right, so I changed my opinion as of noon, and moved 50% into c and s. That is one thing I like about this board, people on here make you think and reassess your market outlook. And sometimes it changes one's outlook. Still bearish in the medium term though.

 

[Wizard]

Interesting I do not hear mention of the yield curve in March 2000?

Another interesting factoid.

Check the increase in buy backs from 1999 as compared to 1998. . Then go back and look at market tops.

GDP is 11.2T. There is over 7.5T outstanding in mortgage debt.

Housing is what propelled the stock market from March 2003. Borrow and spend via the home ATM - so what, indeed.

Bottom line: If you can no longer borrow, how can you spend with a negative savings rate????????

 

[mlk_man]

I'd rather make money than be right, so I changed my opinion as of noon, and moved 50% into c and s. That is one thing I like about this board, people on here make you think and reassess your market outlook. And sometimes it changes one's outlook. Still bearish in the medium term though.

Cortez, I didn't see this in your account? Are you still posting your moves or should I delete it?

 

[Birchtree]

Get a part-time job

Wizard,

If I were a newly minted home owner and find myself strapped for spending, I would certainly find part-time employment to maintain my life style. Not being able to participate in the current bull market is an appropriate sacrifice for maximizing leverage - the bull is better off - we don't need the extra weight. We all make our individual decisions - can't flip your real estate - so sorry to hear about that - remember you still have shelter and there is nothing wrong with sitting on the porch today - watching the big CAT prowl the street. Not everyone in this day and age wants to own stock - from a contrarian standpoint that pleases me. Take care.

Dennis

 

[Cortez]

Cortez, I didn't see this in your account? Are you still posting your moves or should I delete it?

I will add it. I was waiting to make sure my transaction is effective today and not get the two day entry delay.

 

[mlk_man]

I will add it. I was waiting to make sure my transaction is effective today and not get the two day entry delay.

Can't do that if you wanna be tracked. Your move needs to be posted by the deadline or close to it or it'll be effective COB the next day. We do this to protect the innocent. I'm sure you've seen plenty of posts bragging of high returns. Once they start posting their moves, well, you know..............

 

[Cortez]

Gotcha. I'll remember to post to my account right after the IFT.

 

[mlk_man]

 

[Wheels]

That is one thing I like about this board, people on here make you think and reassess your market outlook.

I wish someone had given me a reassessment upside my head yesterday before I went all F for today.

Dave
<><

 

[Birchtree]

Character

The DJIA is currently up 103 - with 60 minutes left they should show some bull character and kick up another 100 points. DTA currently with new all-time high.

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
Jan. 26, 2006​

​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves, and The Tin Box.

Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak............ Socks pulled higher as Horseman Earnie left town.
Other Yak.............. Krude still hanging around.

Doodles:
Socks................... S&P 500 ($SPX)
Closed at.............. 1273.83, up +9.15
Money flow............ +0.148, increasing.
Stops................... NA.
Averages............... +2.26, declining.
Slow STO.............. 24.31, increasing.
Overbought/sold..... [70] 52.2 [30]

Lube.................... Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at.............. 66.26, up +0.41
Markers:............... <60 = ok, 60-65 = worry, >65 = critical.

Tea leaves:
Charts and Stuff..... Yellow.

The Tin Box:
Position................. 100%G.​

 

[oldschool]

So suppose the Fed stops raising rates, overseas folks decide they've got more than enough $$, and rates keep going up to attract the necessary gov't debt financing.... Not an economist here but....

 

[Wheels]

Australia and Japan off to the races again tonight. US futures are way up too. I'm going to have to re-institute a fee for getting out of stocks.

Dave
<><

 

[clester]

S fund hit a 6 year high today on its break out move. It's not far to an all time high back in early 2000.

Will advance GDP tomorow be a help? I think 4.1% is the estimate.
I'm a little concerned about next week with the FED meeting.

 

[roguewave]

Nikkei going berserk(500+). European markets looking very good. I Fund should have a banner day tomorrow unless the dollar has one hell of a rebound.

 

[learning]

.

I'm a little concerned about next week with the FED meeting.

---------------------------

I'm looking for the Fed to be nice. And when the minutes are released a month later real nice. What scares me is Iran. I have not heard much about them and they were trying to pull them in front of the U.N security counsel on Feb 2nd. Iran has thrown threats out about that. So how will the market take to it? Russia has tried to come up with a plan.

 

[Wizard]

Jamming ya right before the yield curve inverts.

Groovy.

If you traded the market in January 2000 you are probably seeing the same things I am.

Now we will hear. GDP 1.1% is good!!!!! That means the fed is done.

As I have said, fed can not allow the USD to go into freefall.

Listen to who you will but you have been warned.

 

[NASAguy]

The Fed is now between a rock and a hard spot. GDP is lowest in years, but inflation appears to be on the rise. Rise rates, it will have a negative affect on US stocks but might contain inflation. Stop with the rate hikes and the dollar drops like a rock, possibly increasing overseas sales but likely to drive inflation.

What to do, what to do?

If the Iran issue is not resolved soon, energy prices will jump. That will hurt our economy badly, maybe not as badly as overseas.

Lots of risk right now.

My hat is off to those who played the I Fund. Today will be a banner day!

 

[Wizard]

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
Jan. 26, 2006​

​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves, and The Tin Box.

Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak............ Socks pulled higher as Horseman Earnie left town.
Other Yak.............. Krude still hanging around.

Doodles:
Socks................... S&P 500 ($SPX)
Closed at.............. 1273.83, up +9.15
Money flow............ +0.148, increasing.
Stops................... NA.
Averages............... +2.26, declining.
Slow STO.............. 24.31, increasing.
Overbought/sold..... [70] 52.2 [30]

Lube.................... Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at.............. 66.26, up +0.41
Markers:............... <60 = ok, 60-65 = worry, >65 = critical.

Tea leaves:
Charts and Stuff..... Yellow.

The Tin Box:
Position................. 100%G.​

Your crude number. Why do you keep raising the critical number?

Do you work for BLS? $59.99 crude is ok? That is about the whackest thing I have ever read.

Crude over $30 is slow death to the U.S. economy. Like boiling a frog.

 

[Wizard]

The Fed is now between a rock and a hard spot. GDP is lowest in years, but inflation appears to be on the rise. Rise rates, it will have a negative affect on US stocks but might contain inflation. Stop with the rate hikes and the dollar drops like a rock, possibly increasing overseas sales but likely to drive inflation.

What to do, what to do?

If the Iran issue is not resolved soon, energy prices will jump. That will hurt our economy badly, maybe not as badly as overseas.

Lots of risk right now.

My hat is off to those who played the I Fund. Today will be a banner day!

Negative savings rate. Last time the saving rate was this bad was 1933. This economy is based on borrow and spend. With interest rates going up you can not use the home ATM anymore. Not that you can not borrow how can you keep the economy going with spending, if you have a negative savings rate????