Market Talk / March 25th - 31st

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Sunday Weekly
Early Edition
March 25, 2007​

Yak, Le Charts, Doodles, Tea Leaves, The Tin Box & The Tally Can

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak.....................................Looks like bear chasing season could be open another month!

Con-Yak....................................Careful, Krude is out of the can. Someone left the lid off, again.

Jester-Yak.................................Iran is starting to cause a ruckus!

Le Charts

Charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com​

Doodles:
Stops......................................Alert (-1%).....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX...................................1422..............1408

Dollar.......................................83.30 +0.09 for the week ending...$USD

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at..............62.28 +5.17 for the week ending...NYMEX
Oil Markers................................<60= ok, 60-65= worry, >65= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Green / Yellow (geopolitical).

Tin Box.
TSP (week ending)......G=11.84..F=11.32..C=15.96..S=19.67..I=23.24
....(1 week past)........G=11.83..F=11.34..C=15.41..S=18.95..I=22.30
....(2 week past)........G=11.82..F=11.31..C=15.58..S=19.14..I=22.50
....(3 week past)........G=11.81..F=11.33..C=15.40..S=18.94..I=22.06
....(4 week past)........G=11.80..F=11.25..C=16.10..S=19.95..I=23.29

....(end of 2006)........G=11.71..F=11.14..C=15.69..S=18.76..I=22.22

Tally Can.
Top 10 last 12 mo.......................View attachment 1526
...............................................Courtesy of Fundsurfer's Leader Tally Chart

 

[robo]

He's back! Jim Cramer on Market Manipulation

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZTt7IQB9rc0

 

[fabijo]

That's revealing, robo. That will screw up any type of market analysis, whether fundamental or technical.

 

[robo]

Did Jim Cramer Cross the Line?
March 23, 2007, 11:53 am Link to This
E-mail this
Topics Hedge FundsIndustries
As money-manager-cum-TV-personality James Cramer was apologizing Thursday for parts of his recent treatise how to manipulate stock prices, his nemesis, stock-analyst-cum-writer Henry Blodget, was tapping out a column for Slate suggesting that Mr. Cramer may have destroyed his own career.

Mr. Cramer, in a video clip of the show “Wall Street Confidential” that was posted at TheStreet.com last December and has circulated around the Net, seems to be endorsing possibly illegal stock manipulation, saying it is easy to get away with because “the Securities and Exchange Commission doesn’t get it.”

For those already predisposed to believe that hedge funds engage in shady practices, the interview seemed to confirm their worst suspicions. For many in the hedge fund business, Mr. Cramer seemed to smear an entire industry unfairly.

Mr. Cramer said he had used some of the tactics himself, including lying to “bozo” reporters to get them to report misinformation on particular stocks. He singled out CNBC’s Bob Pisani. He separated legal activities from illegal ones (such as “fomenting”), and never quite says he ever took part in the latter.

The New York Post reported on the clip this week. On Thursday, Mr. Cramer called in to the Imus in the Morning radio show to say he should have been “more clear” and that “you can’t be as glib, because people will interpret this as being that you’re a bad guy.”

He apologized outright for his remarks about Mr. Pisani. “He deserved better from me. He’s one of the best. And you know, sometimes I screw up. I screwed up in saying that stuff about him.” Mr. Cramer’s show, “Mad Money,” airs on CNBC.

But he also lashed out at the Post for reporting on the clip, as well as its parent company, News Corporation, which also owns Fox News. “I think most of the discipline is coming from organizations that have kind of an edge against maybe CNBC, maybe of the FOX venue, the “New York Post venue,” he said. “It’s almost as if they’re about to launch their own business channel.” Fox has a news business-news cable channel in the works.

In a long examination of the clip, Mr. Blodget — who has been barred from the securities industry for life as part of a settlement over his stock research — predicts that Mr. Cramer’s career might be over. “Can CNBC really say nothing when one of its most visible employees urges investors to use the network to engage in behavior that is questionable to say the least?” he asked.

Mr. Blodget concludes:

It is certainly possible that the whole thing will pass: Cramer has been very effective at stifling or weathering critics. It is also possible, however, that Jim Cramer has committed professional suicide.

http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/03/23/did-jim-cramer-cross-the-line/

 

[Show-me]

Ole Jimmy has created some bad buzz for himself! :worried:

 

[fabijo]

Boo yah, Jim!

 

[robo]

The Bull/Bear battle continues, but the Bulls are still in control.

 

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
March 26, 2007 Closing​

Yak, Le Charts, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tally Can

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Hammer backfills hole, bulls regain control.

Con-Yak...................................Housing still dragging an anchor.

Jester-Yak................................Techs drank a Boost!

Le Charts

Charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com​

Doodles:
Stops.......................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX........1437.50 +1.39.........1423.............1409

Dollar........................................83.07 -0.23 for the day.

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at...............62.91 +0.63 for the day.
Oil Markers.................................<60= ok, 60-65= worry, >65= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Green.

Tally Can
TSP Funds..................................G-fund, F-fund, C-fund, S-fund, I-fund.
Top 10 last 12 mo........................2.8 ......4.3 ......0.3 .....2.3 ......0.5
Today........................................3 made IFT(s), 70% bearish, 30% bullish.
Friday .......................................3 made IFT(s), 89% bearish, 12% bullish.

 

[SkiUtah]

Looks like its time to fill that gap out there.... ka ching.

 

[weatherweenie]

Briefing.com:
06:19 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.8.
06:18 am : FTSE...6305.30...+13.40...+0.2%. DAX...6862.79...+33.97...+0.5%.
06:18 am : Nikkei...17365.05...-156.91...-0.9%. Hang Seng...19706.79...-59.06...-0.3%.

 

[weatherweenie]

Briefing.com:
08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.2. So much for yesterday's late-day momentum carrying over into this morning's opening bell as futures indications currently signal a lower start for stocks. As if yesterday's unexpected drop in new home sales wasn't bad enough for the troubled housing market, homebuilder Lennar Corp (LEN) followed up a 73% year/year drop in Q1 profits by withdrawing its 2007 earnings guidance and warning that "soft market conditions have been exacerbated by the well-publicized problems in the subprime lending market."

 

[James48843]

You saw what the Dow transports did yesterday, down about 100 points yesterday, and down another 50 points today. Looks a lot like some head and shoulders now.

More downside to come.

I'm on the sidelines for another day- thinking that I will be able to buy in cheaper tomorrow.

 

[The_Technician]

Ho Hummmm Ho Hummmm....where has that "W" technical expectation gone or become????

The honey is goooood though....hey, anybody coming by the Monkey Bar t'day......???

 

[sugarandspice]

Hasn't there been a bad housing market precede every recession in recent history? Personally I don't think a recession is coming but I think growth will get a lot slower compared to recent times.

 

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
March 27, 2007 Closing​

Yak, Le Charts, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tally Can

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................We needed a pullback!

Con-Yak...................................Housing still taken hits.

Jester-Yak................................The indicators were running hot!

Le Charts

Charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com​

Doodles:
Stops.......................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX........1428.61 -8.89.........1423.............1409

Dollar........................................82.97 -0.10 for the day.

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at...............62.93 +0.02 for the day.
Oil Markers.................................<60= ok, 60-65= worry, >65= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Green.

Tally Can
TSP Funds..................................G-fund, F-fund, C-fund, S-fund, I-fund.
Top 10 last 12 mo........................4.6 ......2.5 ......0.0 .....1.6 ......1.4
Today........................................4 made IFT(s), 71% bearish, 30% bullish.
Yesterday...................................3 made IFT(s), 70% bearish, 30% bullish.

 

[airlift]

Durable goods orders are out with the headline number at +2.5. Lower than expected but higher than previous the number which was revised lower to -9.3 from -7.8. What is the outlook now? Where are you for the prop-up Mr. Bernake?

 

[James48843]

Hey Tom:

I saw the hard copy of government exec magazine in our breakroom yesterday.

Nice picture of you.

Nice article on TSP too.

I recommend it to everybody to get your hands on a hardcopy of the magazine for a nice read.

 

[James48843]

And I think the market will head downward today.

I may be ready to buy back in if we have a really good thump'in today. If not, and it only drifts down a little before noon, I may wait another day.

Rumors of war (two rumors this morning- one regarding US Navy and Iran, and one regarding UK and Iran, both combined to thump european markets and the price of oil).

Buy on the rumor- sell on the news....

 

[airlift]

Does anybody believe that the 20 dma will serve as support in the SPX?

 

[James48843]

Benake says sub-prime damage is contained....


From Yahoo news:


AP
Bernanke: Mortgage Woes Bear Watching

Wednesday March 28, 10:36 am ET
By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer

Ben Bernanke Tells Congress That Risky Mortgage Problems Aren't Spreading to Broader Economy

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress on Wednesday that growing troubles in the market for risky mortgages thus far doesn't appear to be spreading to the overall economy but the situation bears close watching.

"At this juncture ... the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime markets seems likely to be contained," Bernanke said in prepared testimony to Congress' Joint Economic Committee.

It marked Bernanke's most extensive discussion yet of the mounting problems in the risky mortgage market. Those troubles raise "some additional questions about the housing sector," which has been mired in a deep slump for more than a year, Bernanke said.

Fallout in the risky mortgage market is clobbering some lenders and homeowners and has stoked concerns on Wall Street, Capitol Hill and elsewhere.

So-called "subprime" lenders who make home loans to people with blemished credit histories or low incomes have been battered. Weak home prices and rising interest rates have made it increasingly difficult for borrowers to keep up with their payments. Delinquencies and foreclosures in the subprime mortgage market are soaring.

"Although the turmoil in the subprime mortgage market has created financial problems for many individuals and families, the implications of these developments for the housing market as a whole are less clear," Bernanke said.

The crumbling housing market has been a major factor behind the slowdown in the U.S. economy. Bernanke said the "near-term prospects for the housing market remain uncertain."

Even so, Bernanke stuck with the Federal Reserve's assessment that the economy is likely to grow at a moderate pace over the coming quarters. He also repeated the Fed's belief that inflation also should ease in the months ahead.

To be sure, Bernanke was careful to hedge the Fed's economic bets. The housing slump could turn out to be worse than expected, perhaps exacerbated by problems in the market for risky mortgages, he said. Recent weakness in business investment also could persist, he added. Those forces could further dampen economic growth.

On the other hand, consumers which proved "quite resilient" despite the housing slump and increases in energy prices, could continue to keep spending at a pace that would make the economy grow faster than currently expected, he said.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070328/bernanke.html?.v=5