Market Talk / April 1st - 7th

[Birchtree]

Tom,

I've seen the graph on a number of occasions from different authors - the next time I run across one I'll link it. I did post a link in the bull pen yesterday that reviews Elliott Wave. There may be some others further back.

Dennis

 

[Show-me]

Show,
What's your best guess for the potentially best performance among the Funds? The dollar is rising now!

I really don't have a idea right now. I'm 180 degrees out of sync with the market right now and I can't get my head above water.

I hate the F fund!

 

[clester]

Isn't there something about a jobs report being 50,000 or more over or under expectations and stocks reversing a reaction within a few days?

 

[Show-me]

Isn't there something about a jobs report being 50,000 or more over or under expectations and stocks reversing a reaction within a few days?

Yes! I'll look for it later. Tom has it earmarked somewhere cuz it is always bought up when it happens.

 

[gunsmokex]

Damn F fund I just wanted my penny back

I tried to warn you guys about the F fund.

 

[Show-me]

I tried to warn you guys about the F fund.

Yep! I'm done with it...........again.

 

[Birchtree]

At these current levels, your lawn will grow faster than the F fund. This is more fun watching the bunny hopping from G to F to G than watching the roller derby. I've been accused of condescension but that's not the case, I'm only an excited spectator.

 

[BigGuy]

Newbie question: What does "the market is overbought" mean?

1. What are the indicators of that? (Assuming it is true)

2. What are the implications? (I'm guessing that means to sell)

Thanks
Scott

 

[Spaf]

Newbie question: What does "the market is overbought" mean?

1. What are the indicators of that? (Assuming it is true)

2. What are the implications? (I'm guessing that means to sell)

Thanks
Scott

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/overbought.asp

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/relative_strength_index.htm
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/slow_stochastic.htm

 

[Tempest]

At these current levels, your lawn will grow faster than the F fund. This is more fun watching the bunny hopping from G to F to G than watching the roller derby. I've been accused of condescension but that's not the case, I'm only an excited spectator.

I never made money in the 'F' Fund. I hate the 'F' Fund. Even in the olden days when I allocated my portions to the various funds and sat (like I'm doing now again) I never put money in the 'F' Fund. Returns were always meager in the 'F' Fund. It seems the daily loss in an 'F' Fund was always greater then a daily gain in the 'F' Fund. I feel sorry for anyone that was in the 'F' Fund yesterday. Have you ever seen an 'F' Fund graph; It's never nice and graceful going up OR down-it's always squiggly like a heart monitor going every which way- playing with your greed all day before it closes down. If bonds finish in the green on a YAHOO graph at the end of the day you can be sure bonds in the 'F' Fund will finish in the red. The only thing right about the 'F' Fund is it's name.
Did I mention I hate the 'F' Fund.

 

[tsptalk]

Isn't there something about a jobs report being 50,000 or more over or under expectations and stocks reversing a reaction within a few days?

This info may be dated now but it went like this...

During the past three years:

• Three days after a large surprise in the jobs report of 50,000 jobs, up or down, the S&P 500 was higher only 5 out of 18 times. Its average return was minus 0.5%. Markets don’t like surprises because they create uncertainty.​
• Ten days after a negative surprise of 50K jobs or more, the S&P was higher 55% of the time. Ten days after a positive surprise of 50K or more, it was lower 58% of the time.​
• Ninety days after a large negative surprise, the S&P showed an average return of +5.1%. Ninety days after a large positive surprise, its average return was 1.7%.​
• The correlation between surprises in the jobs number and 90-day returns in the S&P 500 has been -.32. This means that the more positive the surprise, the more negative the performance in the S&P and vice-versa. Given the sample size, this is significant.​

 

[tsptalk]

We had a positive surprise. That's when the actual is higher than the estimates.

 

[Birchtree]

Friday was a positive surprise day - the consensus was for 130,000 new non-farm payroll jobs - we got 180,000 and that may eventuall be revised higher next month. IMHO this market is set up to ring the bell. We are coiled and ready to release - already 24 S&P companies have reported earnings with 75% exceeding expectations - the critical elements will be Alcoa and General Electric. We are only a cats' wisker away from new all-time highs on the Wilshire 5000, S&P 500, 400, 600, and NYSE. The DJIA needs 226.44 points to establish a new all-time high while both the NYAD and RA NYAD are already at new all-time highs. Usually breadth will lead price. Be right and sit tight. 1995 here we come.

 

[nnuut]

We had a positive surprise. That's when the actual is higher than the estimates.

They seem to be revising the results on a regular basis now. Not just the Jobs numbers most all of the economic stats. Can't they get it right the first time? How can the numbers change for last month? I don't like it, this stinks of COOKING THE BOOKS!:nuts:

 

[tsptalk]

They seem to be revising the results on a regular basis now.

Good point. February payrolls were revised up to 113,000 from 97,000, and January's were revised up to 162,000 from 146,000.

 

[Fivetears]

Perhaps now they're including the Community Service jobs generated from state civil court misdemeanor convictions. :notrust:

 

[Fivetears]

Sorry. I agree with Norman; COOKING THE BOOKS.

 

[Spaf]

Will be closing this weekly thread and starting a new one!
Thanks for all the views and posts!
Regards
Spaf