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Market Talk / April 1st - 7th
- Thread starter Spaf
- Start date
weatherweenie
Well-known member
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aQ6S3nCTOBTk&refer=home
U.S. Stock-Index Futures Advance Before Report on Employment
By Chris Nagi
April 6 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock-index futures rose before a government report that may show employers increased the pace of hiring last month.
Standard & Poor's 500 Index futures expiring in June gained 0.8 to 1453.5 as of 7:22 a.m. in New York. Nasdaq-100 Index futures climbed 2.5 to 1830.75.
Stock exchanges in the U.S. are closed for Good Friday. Trading in stock-index futures will end at 9:15 a.m. on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's electronic Globex platform.
Two hundred eighty-one contracts on the S&P 500 changed hands on Globex since 4:30 p.m. yesterday, compared with an average of 27,200 over the previous four sessions.
U.S. employers probably added 130,000 workers to payrolls in March, up from 97,000 a month earlier, based on the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
The jobless rate is forecast to increase to 4.6 percent from 4.5 percent, while average hourly earnings probably advanced 0.3 percent. The Labor Department report is scheduled to be released at 8:30 a.m. in Washington.
``The job market continues to be solid,'' said Dean Junkans, who oversees $213 billion as chief investment officer at Wells Fargo Wealth Management Group in Minneapolis. ``Consumers still have the wherewithal to spend money.''
U.S. stocks yesterday completed a weeklong rally to post their best start to a second quarter since 2004, helped by Kirk Kerkorian's $4.5 billion offer for Chrysler Corp. and upgraded profit estimates for technology companies.
U.S. Stock-Index Futures Advance Before Report on Employment
By Chris Nagi
April 6 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock-index futures rose before a government report that may show employers increased the pace of hiring last month.
Standard & Poor's 500 Index futures expiring in June gained 0.8 to 1453.5 as of 7:22 a.m. in New York. Nasdaq-100 Index futures climbed 2.5 to 1830.75.
Stock exchanges in the U.S. are closed for Good Friday. Trading in stock-index futures will end at 9:15 a.m. on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's electronic Globex platform.
Two hundred eighty-one contracts on the S&P 500 changed hands on Globex since 4:30 p.m. yesterday, compared with an average of 27,200 over the previous four sessions.
U.S. employers probably added 130,000 workers to payrolls in March, up from 97,000 a month earlier, based on the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
The jobless rate is forecast to increase to 4.6 percent from 4.5 percent, while average hourly earnings probably advanced 0.3 percent. The Labor Department report is scheduled to be released at 8:30 a.m. in Washington.
``The job market continues to be solid,'' said Dean Junkans, who oversees $213 billion as chief investment officer at Wells Fargo Wealth Management Group in Minneapolis. ``Consumers still have the wherewithal to spend money.''
U.S. stocks yesterday completed a weeklong rally to post their best start to a second quarter since 2004, helped by Kirk Kerkorian's $4.5 billion offer for Chrysler Corp. and upgraded profit estimates for technology companies.
weatherweenie
Well-known member
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=alh1B3aI8Bnc&refer=home
U.S. Payrolls Rose 180,000 in March; Jobless Rate at 4.4%
By Joe Richter
April 6 (Bloomberg) -- Hiring in the U.S. rose more than forecast and the jobless rate unexpectedly dropped, giving the economy a spark as it struggles to overcome slumps in housing and manufacturing.
The 180,000 increase in employment followed a 113,000 gain in February that was larger than previously estimated, the Labor Department reported today in Washington. The jobless rate fell to 4.4 percent, matching October's five-year low.
New jobs and bigger paychecks are giving more Americans the means to spend, preventing the housing recession from spreading to the rest of the economy. The drop in the jobless rate may concern Federal Reserve policy makers who've said the threat of inflation is a bigger risk for the expansion.
``Jobs are plentiful and employers are giving fairly large wage increases,'' Robert Gay, managing director at Fenwick Advisers LLC in Rye, New York, and a former Fed economist, said before the report. ``Outside housing and manufacturing, the rest of the economy is doing pretty well and continuing to create jobs.''
Economists projected payrolls would rise by 130,000 following a previously reported 97,000 February increase, according to the median of 75 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. They also anticipated an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.6 percent.
Revisions for the previous two months showed employers added 32,000 more jobs than the Labor Department had earlier estimated.
Earnings
Workers' average hourly earnings rose 6 cents, or 0.3 percent, after a 0.4 percent increase the previous month. Economists expected a 0.3 percent increase in hourly wages. Earnings were up 4 percent from March last year.
``There's not a lot of deterioration in the labor market, despite the worries over the effects of the housing market,'' Michelle Girard, senior economist at RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut, said before the report. ``The fact that the labor market is still tight means the hurdle for Fed easing rates is higher than a lot of people might think.''
Builders added 56,000 jobs after shedding 61,000 the prior month. The snap back is probably due to the return of more seasonable temperatures after cold weather played a role in the February drop, the Labor Department said.
Service industries, which include banking, insurance, restaurants and retailers, gained 137,000 workers last month after a 180,000 gain in February, the report showed. The increase was led by a 36,000 gain in retail employment that was the biggest since July 2005.
Manufacturing
Manufacturers' payrolls fell 16,000 last month after dropping 11,000 a month earlier. Economists expected manufacturers to eliminate 12,000 positions. The manufacturing workweek rose to 41.1 hours and overtime increased to 4.3 hours from 4.2 hours.
Average weekly hours worked by production workers increased to 33.9 from 33.8. Economists in the Bloomberg survey had forecast hours would rise to 33.8 from 33.7.
Average weekly earnings rose to $583.76 last month from $580.01 in February.
``We continue to see modest growth and stability in the labor market,'' Steve Pogorzelski president of Monster International Worldwide, said in an interview on April 4. ``Employers continue to report they're concerned about turnover, driven by opportunities to make more money'' in other jobs.
The report is in line with others in recent weeks that suggested the labor market was holding up.
Other Surveys
ADP Employer Services said companies added 106,000 jobs last month after a 65,000 gain in February. The ADP data are based only on a count of private payrolls that exclude government workers.
A Conference Board survey released last week showed the share of Americans who said jobs are plentiful rose last month to the highest since August 2001. First-time claims for unemployment benefits also showed companies are holding on to workers.
``It's hard to find enough people to grow the way we want,'' said John Milligan, chief operating officer of Foster City, California-based Gilead Sciences Inc., the world's second-biggest seller of HIV drugs behind GlaxoSmithKline Plc, in an interview last month.
Other businesses are trying to trim costs by reducing staff. Milpitas, California-based Solectron Corp., the world's second- largest maker of electronics for other companies, said last week it may cut as many as 1,500 jobs as it consolidates facilities in North America and Europe.
Fed
Federal Reserve policy makers were counting on jobs and wages to keep consumers and the economy afloat.
``The continuing increases in employment, together with some pickup in real wages, have helped sustain consumer spending,'' Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said during Congressional testimony last week. ``Growth in consumer spending should continue to support the economic expansion in coming quarters.''
Bernanke also said interest-rate policy was still aimed at combating inflation, which central bankers considered a bigger risk to the economy. Still, ``uncertainties have risen, and therefore a little more flexibility might be desirable.''
U.S. Payrolls Rose 180,000 in March; Jobless Rate at 4.4%
By Joe Richter
April 6 (Bloomberg) -- Hiring in the U.S. rose more than forecast and the jobless rate unexpectedly dropped, giving the economy a spark as it struggles to overcome slumps in housing and manufacturing.
The 180,000 increase in employment followed a 113,000 gain in February that was larger than previously estimated, the Labor Department reported today in Washington. The jobless rate fell to 4.4 percent, matching October's five-year low.
New jobs and bigger paychecks are giving more Americans the means to spend, preventing the housing recession from spreading to the rest of the economy. The drop in the jobless rate may concern Federal Reserve policy makers who've said the threat of inflation is a bigger risk for the expansion.
``Jobs are plentiful and employers are giving fairly large wage increases,'' Robert Gay, managing director at Fenwick Advisers LLC in Rye, New York, and a former Fed economist, said before the report. ``Outside housing and manufacturing, the rest of the economy is doing pretty well and continuing to create jobs.''
Economists projected payrolls would rise by 130,000 following a previously reported 97,000 February increase, according to the median of 75 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. They also anticipated an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.6 percent.
Revisions for the previous two months showed employers added 32,000 more jobs than the Labor Department had earlier estimated.
Earnings
Workers' average hourly earnings rose 6 cents, or 0.3 percent, after a 0.4 percent increase the previous month. Economists expected a 0.3 percent increase in hourly wages. Earnings were up 4 percent from March last year.
``There's not a lot of deterioration in the labor market, despite the worries over the effects of the housing market,'' Michelle Girard, senior economist at RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut, said before the report. ``The fact that the labor market is still tight means the hurdle for Fed easing rates is higher than a lot of people might think.''
Builders added 56,000 jobs after shedding 61,000 the prior month. The snap back is probably due to the return of more seasonable temperatures after cold weather played a role in the February drop, the Labor Department said.
Service industries, which include banking, insurance, restaurants and retailers, gained 137,000 workers last month after a 180,000 gain in February, the report showed. The increase was led by a 36,000 gain in retail employment that was the biggest since July 2005.
Manufacturing
Manufacturers' payrolls fell 16,000 last month after dropping 11,000 a month earlier. Economists expected manufacturers to eliminate 12,000 positions. The manufacturing workweek rose to 41.1 hours and overtime increased to 4.3 hours from 4.2 hours.
Average weekly hours worked by production workers increased to 33.9 from 33.8. Economists in the Bloomberg survey had forecast hours would rise to 33.8 from 33.7.
Average weekly earnings rose to $583.76 last month from $580.01 in February.
``We continue to see modest growth and stability in the labor market,'' Steve Pogorzelski president of Monster International Worldwide, said in an interview on April 4. ``Employers continue to report they're concerned about turnover, driven by opportunities to make more money'' in other jobs.
The report is in line with others in recent weeks that suggested the labor market was holding up.
Other Surveys
ADP Employer Services said companies added 106,000 jobs last month after a 65,000 gain in February. The ADP data are based only on a count of private payrolls that exclude government workers.
A Conference Board survey released last week showed the share of Americans who said jobs are plentiful rose last month to the highest since August 2001. First-time claims for unemployment benefits also showed companies are holding on to workers.
``It's hard to find enough people to grow the way we want,'' said John Milligan, chief operating officer of Foster City, California-based Gilead Sciences Inc., the world's second-biggest seller of HIV drugs behind GlaxoSmithKline Plc, in an interview last month.
Other businesses are trying to trim costs by reducing staff. Milpitas, California-based Solectron Corp., the world's second- largest maker of electronics for other companies, said last week it may cut as many as 1,500 jobs as it consolidates facilities in North America and Europe.
Fed
Federal Reserve policy makers were counting on jobs and wages to keep consumers and the economy afloat.
``The continuing increases in employment, together with some pickup in real wages, have helped sustain consumer spending,'' Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said during Congressional testimony last week. ``Growth in consumer spending should continue to support the economic expansion in coming quarters.''
Bernanke also said interest-rate policy was still aimed at combating inflation, which central bankers considered a bigger risk to the economy. Still, ``uncertainties have risen, and therefore a little more flexibility might be desirable.''
Bloomberg TV analysis - Economic numbers came out showing that the risks of recession are decreasing, and that these numbers are liked by equity markets. The economy is finding a bottom here, and the unemployment rate dropped further. We could see a positive stockmarket next week.
Show-me
Well-known member
Same on CNBC, one analysis went as far as to say that a short term run up in the S&P to 1500 then.................................reevaluate.
Most of the jobs came from construction and retail. The construction gains were from the weather last month, but not all of the jobs returned. Manufacturing is still loosing jobs.
The other thing that stuck me is that they have taken out any chance of a rate cut. I think once that starts to settle in it will make the market nervous again. Inflation is rising.
Plenty of time this weekend to dissect the report. See ya!
mlk_man
Banned
Sucks to be in the F fund today:
From CNN\Money:
But the bond market was open, and Treasury bond prices tumbled, taking the yield on the 10-year note up to 4.74 percent from 4.67 late Thursday as investors bet the strong numbers significantly reduced the chance that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates later this year
From CNN\Money:
But the bond market was open, and Treasury bond prices tumbled, taking the yield on the 10-year note up to 4.74 percent from 4.67 late Thursday as investors bet the strong numbers significantly reduced the chance that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates later this year
FUTURESTRADER
Active member
June S&P 500 up 5.8 this a..m. on employment number
http://charts.barchart.com/chart.as...i=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
http://charts.barchart.com/chart.as...i=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
vectorman
Active member
" Sucks to be in the F fund today " and Monday, since no changes can be made. With no hope of Feds cutting rates, Bonds may continue to slide for a few more days. Usually 4.8% Y on 10yr had been a good buying point, but uncertain now. More money will come out of Bonds and probably go into equities. One more good push up on stocks to fill remaining gaps. Watch talking heads start pointing out how the S&P is setting up to challenge its 2000 high. The good times parade is on the move again and Birchtree is on the lead float ( snort ) waving to all the G and F fund sideliners to jump on in before the parade leaves them behind. No more memory of Fed 27th, just a bump in the road. Higher rates and inflation are now the only stumbling blocks to overcome. Revising numbers and M3 money increases wealth through the stock market to replace the weakness of the housing market. Just like a Pyramid Scheme more buyers are needed to hold this thing together.
Last edited:
mlk_man
Banned
I'm thinking this may be a rare and golden opportunity for our other investment accounts. I do believe that Scottrade is taking orders today because I got a settled funds confirmation this morning. Sooooo, if one was to buy a mutual fund betting that Monday is up, wouldn't they get the NAV at COB today or yesterday rather?
This wouldn't work with stocks and ETF's because you'd be buying at the opening price on Monday.
If a lot of people do this, I can see over 1% gains on Monday.
This wouldn't work with stocks and ETF's because you'd be buying at the opening price on Monday.
If a lot of people do this, I can see over 1% gains on Monday.
Birchtree
Well-known member
Could it be that Vectorman has been doing too much spelunking on the weekends and requires vision adjustment. Step into the light and reap your rewards. I bet only a few of our braggadocio members will be there at the opening bell Monday. That darn C fund could be up over $.30 and the S fund could be up even more. Take me way down yonder.
I wonder if Bloomberg TV analysis is correct in stating that the stockmarket markets see these economic numbers, (though somewhat inflationary) as positive, perhaps in light of the fact that the numbers are showing signs that there will probably not be a recession. If so, do we get another upleg in the stockmarket due to money coming in from Europe or money waiting to be deployed from the sidelines?
Birchtree
Well-known member
The important thing is that the Fed chooses to hold the line on rates - everything will be fine. Rates will eventually come down as productivity re-establishes momentum and inflation continues to cool. Goldilocks has returned and even with lower earnings price earnings multiples will begin to expand as the market moves higher. Be right and sit tight. When will the Chinese start buying into our market - stocks not treasuries.
I believe the first scenario in the FED's card. If I recall correctly, the FED has stated or implied in the recent past (in the minutes) that they are counting on a gradual accomodation or lowering of interest rates through market dynamics and that everything will correct gradually. If I am right, the FED may decide to stay put and allow for more inflation to happen (Birchtree, I think you said something to this effect this morning).
Birchtree
Well-known member
We are simply moving closer and closer to the center point of an Elliott Wave Primary 3rd wave to the upside where breadth of market will tend to be quite buoyant in all respects during the unwinding process. Monday could easily be another triple digit day along with Tuesday and Wednesday.
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