Market Talk / Jan. 22 - 28

Spaf

Honorary Hall of Fame Member
The Kingdom of TSP
Sunday-Weekly
Early Edition
Jan. 22, 2006

Fortuneteller.gif

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves, and The Tin Box.

Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak............ Euphoria Shot! Constable detains Horsemen Krude and Earnie for shooting Euphoria. Both Krude and Earnie claim it was a accident. Krude's horse Filler-up had wandered into Euphoria's garden and was eating her flowers. Krude stated that Euphoria took some shots at his horse and he was trying to get the gun away from Euphoria when it accidentally discharged. Euphoria was taken to the Kingdom hospital with a bullet wound to her big toe.

Other Yak.............. Lube up 7% on the week (over 68 smackers a bucket). Global squabbles and threats continue.

Jester Yak............. We are getting more room to go up.

Doodles:
Socks................... S&P 500 ($SPX)
Closed at.............. 1261.49, dn -26.12 for the week.
Money flow............ +0.181, declining.
Averages............... +5.94, declining.
Slow STO.............. 59.15, declining.
Overbought/sold..... [70] 44.3 [30]
Stops................... Alert: 1282 [broken], Trailing: 1270 [broken].
Chart................... 3mo., 20dMA, P-SAR, MACD, RSI (Attached).

Lube..................... Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at............... 68.48, up +3.90 for the week.
Markers:................ <60 = ok, 60-65 = worry, >65 = critical.

Tea leaves:
Charts and Stuff..... Red.

The Tin Box:
Position................ 75G, 25F.
TSP Ended: G=11.18 F=10.74 C=13.70 S=16.83 I=17.97
Last Week: G=11.17 F=10.73 C=13.98 S=17.00 I=18.42
 
The good news Bears.

From Merrill:

The market is likely to experience a cyclical decline in 2006 as an offset to the post 2002 cyclical bull market that is now quite old by historical standards. Such a decline, based on fairly consistant historical patterns, could involve a 20 to 25% peak to trough risk on the DJIA and SPX. That could set the stage for a new cyclical advance in 2007-08.

The early-January rally produced what is often referred to as a "good" overbought reading. That means that the upside momentum of the recent advance was so strong that, even though it may lead to a short-term pullback, the market should eventually have a "second wind" in terms of renewed strength in late Januar or February before the entire post-October leg advance and (this is the best part) possibly the entire post-2002 bull market cycle reach their final peaks on the major averages.

As a contrarian of unknown renown I enjoy the negative outlook.

Dennis - permabull #2
 
Australia is down 1.25% in early morning trading. Looks like there might be some follow through after all.

Dave
<><
 
US futures just turned south.

Crude 68.60.

Precious metals opened to the upside.
 
Iran Sanctions Could Drive Oil Past $100

By BRAD FOSS and GEORGE JAHN, Associated Press WritersSun Jan 22, 6:39 PM ET

A surge in oil prices last week to almost $70 a barrel on concerns about the restart of Iran's nuclear program only hints at what may lie ahead.

Prices could soar past $100 a barrel, experts say, if the U.N. Security Council authorizes trade sanctions against the Middle Eastern nation, which the West accuses of trying to make nuclear bombs, and Iran curbs oil exports in retaliation. A sharp global economic slowdown could follow.

That's the dilemma the United States and European nations face as they decide whether to act. But Iran would also pay a hefty price if the petro-dollars that now represent 80 percent of export revenues are reduced, potentially stirring civil unrest in a nation with a 14 percent unemployment rate.

"They would shoot themselves in the foot," said Mustafa Alani, director of national security and terrorism studies at the Dubai-based Gulf Research Center. "It's one thing to test the market psychology, it's another to take the actual step and stop oil exports."

Iran, the second-largest oil producer within the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, exports roughly 2.5 million barrels per day — 1 million barrels more than current excess production capacity worldwide. It also controls the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping lane in the Middle East.

"Even if Iran pulled a small amount of its oil off the market, say it pulled a half million barrels a day, I could see oil prices literally jumping over the $100 per barrel mark," said James Bartis, a senior researcher at Rand Corp.
 
We're screwed

Market heading south BIG TIME today. I put everything back into stocks at COB on last friday. I am riding it down. No chute to pop. I'm toast.

But hey, I wanted to work until 72 anyway......
 
This is not the plan I had laid out for the start of 2006. The plan was the dollar was going to drop and the I fund was going to see 30% gains. Then the stock market scandal hit Japan and the I fund responded. I fund losses may be held to a min today as the Euro market did well.
___________________________________________________________
Jan. 23 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell to a four-month low against the euro after European Central Bank officials suggested higher interest rates are needed to prevent a surge in oil prices from spurring faster inflation.

Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, who votes on rates at the ECB, told Italian radio on Jan. 21 that the bank will focus on reining in prices, ``notwithstanding all the risks.'' The dollar dropped the most in three weeks against the yen after Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President William Poole suggested in an interview the Fed may soon stop raising rates.

``ECB central bankers are talking up interest rates and U.S. central bankers are saying the rate cycle is going to terminate,'' said Hans Guenter Redeker, head of currency strategy in London at BNP Paribas SA. ``The U.S. dollar is going to lose its most important pillar, rising interest rates.''

The dollar weakened to $1.2274 per euro at 7 a.m. in New York from $1.2135 late on Jan. 20. It dropped to 114.35 yen from 115.30 and declined against at least a dozen other currencies.
 
Hmm I go hunting for a few

days and you guys let the market get you......

Last week or so I said it was slip sliding away..... some of you didn't listen:( , but I really can't blame you, I haven't been 100% correct in the recent past...I'm just getting tooled up.....according to my new data, the market was sitting high on the ledge and it was doomed,.......but thats old news right.....

I don't read Tom's comments often (sorry Tom ) but Tom has been echoing saying the same as I understand from what has been posted....., my views are independent from Tom and others..... so keep that in mind....:rolleyes:

I tried to inform you as pracitical as possible, but you Birch, you permanent bull, you may have led the sheep to slaughter...:confused: ....u too risky in this situation.

Now remember this, you won't know the reason for the fall until it happens, .....also, when it does, back out for a while....there isn't many profitable days when she does....:cool:
 
I LOVE Monday! The bustle of the world going back to work, the smell of donuts in the morning, my beloved coffee machine, flipping on CNBC when I wake up to see how the markets closed... Bought me some more I Fund before going to sleep. See y'all in the morning, its time for bed.
 
Tech I agree for the most part as I have 60% in G and plan on keeping it there for a while. I am going to stick to the 40% position in the I fund for a while longer.
There is just too much going on in the world to risk cash by betting on the US market. The crisis regarding US debt, Oil, Iran , to name a few. Hard to throw caution to the wind and bet the us market at this time. With the housing market cooling down the piggy bank is busted, Those that refinanced have already ran their credit cards back up and there is nothing left to borrow. The trading year is long and opportunities with less risky trading days will be plentiful.
Birch gives plenty of detailed information for his followers, that cover both sides of the risk line. Sheep I don’t think so. The market is not for the feint of heart
 
The_Technician said:
Last week or so I said it was slip sliding away..... some of you didn't listen

Don't go patting yourself on the back just yet there Tech. Remember you called for a 10% decline in January. Even with Friday's bashing, the S&P is still up for the month.

Dave
<><
 
10% decline

Yep, that 10% still may or may not happen....but the real point is, we're taken a hit in Jan....

We still have room to drop....but I'm expecting the C fund to make a bit of a jump for a couple of days.....then watch out again for a drop.....
 
Birds

Whip'saw n, a red bird with a black head, flies up and down, lives in the stock market, and poops in random cycles.
 
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