Market Talk / March 25th - 31st

[FUTURESTRADER]

bond yields falling...still a more dovish stance?

 

[sugarandspice]

First Qtr so far Dow Nasdaq & S&P all down from their Jan 1 levels. We have some making 7-8-9% trading their accounts. This could be the year Desperado was refering to a few months ago for study.

 

[Gritz]

There is support at the 20 dma but I would be concerned (and I assume this is your question/concern also) that the support will hold; technically there is room to fall below 1400 (maybe around 1390), short term historical pattern perspective looks similar to the June leading up to and through July 2006. All that to say, I don't know if support will hold, I believe we will test the 20 dma, but any fall through will not be by much and we should begin a nice climb up once this is completed. I'm waiting for the stochastics to determine when this is time to get back into stocks, plus the RSI dropping to around 30 would be nice.

Of course there are smarter board participants than I (yourself included) who can speak to this.

Thanks for all your posts. good fortune to you.

 

[sugarandspice]

On the other hand, consumers which proved "quite resilient" despite the housing slump and increases in energy prices, could continue to keep spending at a pace that would make the economy grow faster than currently expected, he said.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070328/bernanke.html?.v=5

Come on, are you serious Benny? He's got electric boots...... a mo-hair suit.....Ya know he read it in a magaziiiiiiiiine...............IMO.
Hey kids, plug into the faithless
Maybe they're blinded
But Bennie makes them ageless

 

[350zCommTech]

"At this juncture ... the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime markets seems likely to be contained," Bernanke said in prepared testimony to Congress' Joint Economic Committee."

"Although the turmoil in the subprime mortgage market has created financial problems for many individuals and families, the implications of these developments for the housing market as a whole are less clear," Bernanke said.

The crumbling housing market has been a major factor behind the slowdown in the U.S. economy. Bernanke said the "near-term prospects for the housing market remain uncertain."

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070328/bernanke.html?.v=5

"Contained" but yet "uncertain". In other words, we don't really know but it's going to be ok!

Talk about BS.

 

[sugarandspice]

Carefully worded to play both sides of any scenario.

 

[airlift]

Gritz,
Thank you for your excellent views and opinion. Don't ever think someone is smarter. We are here to share, otherwise I wouldn't have asked. My best wishes to you too!

There is support at the 20 dma but I would be concerned (and I assume this is your question/concern also) that the support will hold; technically there is room to fall below 1400 (maybe around 1390), short term historical pattern perspective looks similar to the June leading up to and through July 2006. All that to say, I don't know if support will hold, I believe we will test the 20 dma, but any fall through will not be by much and we should begin a nice climb up once this is completed. I'm waiting for the stochastics to determine when this is time to get back into stocks, plus the RSI dropping to around 30 would be nice.

Of course there are smarter board participants than I (yourself included) who can speak to this.

Thanks for all your posts. good fortune to you.

 

[Gritz]

Thanks, Sponsor, maybe insightful is a better word than smarter.

As to the trend toward the 20 dma, one could hope to catch a one day play (bounce?) here and there (tomorrow might be a good one), but the trend looks to be in place to push down some more; understand though, I am bullish overall, just staying with the charts, my emotional plays have hurt more often than not.

 

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
March 28, 2007 Closing​

Yak, Le Charts, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tally Can

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Where did all the bulls go?

Con-Yak...................................The 2 bad C'ds: Cartel and Crude!

Jester-Yak................................Another fine mess!

Le Charts

Charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com​

Doodles:
Stops.......................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX........1417.23 -11.38........X1423...........1409

Dollar........................................83.07 +0.10 for the day.

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at...............64.08 +1.15 for the day.
Oil Markers.................................<60= ok, 60-65= worry, >65= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Yellow.

Tally Can
TSP Funds..................................G-fund, F-fund, C-fund, S-fund, I-fund.
Top 10 last 12 mo........................3.8 ......2.5 ......0.0 .....2.1 ......1.7
Today........................................1 made IFT(s), 63% bearish, 38% bullish.
Yesterday...................................4 made IFT(s), 71% bearish, 30% bullish.

 

[robo]

Todd Market Forecast Stock Market Update for Wednesday 03/28/07


www.toddmarketforecast.com

Available Mon- Friday after 6:00 p.m. Eastern, 3:00 Pacific.

DOW - 97 on 1200 net declines


NASDAQ COMP. - 20 on 1100 net declines


SHORT TERM TREND Bullish

INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND Bullish


We have given a lot of reasons why we believe that the stock market
will give a very good account of itself during the year 2007 and we have
summarized these reasons in a two page work that we will be e-mailing to
subscribers in the next day or two. Anyone else who wishes it should
contact us via e-mail.
Our reasons have to do with liquidity, seasonality, investor
sentiment and historical tendencies during pre election years. However,
you need to understand that in this business, we deal in probabilities,
not certainties.
This is why it is occasionally helpful to look at what could go
wrong. We think that there is perhaps a 20% risk that the Fed will again
raise rates and throw the economy into a recession. This was brought to
the fore by Fed Chairman Bernake’s testimony today when he intimated
that the Fed was more concerned with inflation than with slow economic
growth.
It is our position that inflation is caused by a weak economy, not
a strong one. The economy is slowing and inflation is remaining
stubborn. That is exactly what should be happening, but most economists,
including Mr. Bernanke don’t understand this.
We saw a good market rise from March 13 into a short term
overbought condition. It would not be unusual to see a giveback of
perhaps 30-50% of the recent jump. Most indices are now within the
window of that projection. We are of the opinion that the stock market
will be higher over the next two to three months.

NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS:

Durable goods rose a less than expected 2.5%. The consensus was
for a rise of 3.5%. Oil rose still again after a report that inventories
dropped 846,000 barrels instead of rising 2.02 million barrels.
On the stock front, HB Fuller jumped 11% on earnings. Spartan
Stores gained 10% on word that the company would replace Carreker Corp.
in the S&P SmallCap 600.
On the negative side, Beazer Homes slid 8% after Federal
authorities requested documents regarding its home lending business.
Sigma Design tumbled 11% after a downgrade by American Technology
Research.

BOTTOM LINE:

Our S&P and NASDAQ intermediate term systems are on a buy signal.
Mutual fund investors should be in a 100% invested position.

Short term ETF traders are in cash. On Thursday, buy the Russell
2000 ETF, symbol IWM at 10:15 New York time if the security is in
positive territory. Place a stop at 78.61.

OTHER MARKETS

We are on a sell signal for bonds as of March 22.

We are on a sell on the dollar and a buy for the Euro as of Feb. 15.

We are on a buy for gold as of March 20.

We are on a buy for crude oil as of March 26.

We are bullish for all major world markets, including those of the U.S.,
Britain, Canada, Germany, France and Japan.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/TODD.html

 

[Show-me]

http://money.cnn.com/2007/03/28/news/economy/durables/index.htm

Decline in business spending raises alarms

Continued pullback in business spending hits orders for big-ticket items and raises new fears of an economic slowdown.

By Chris Isidore, CNNMoney.com senior writer
March 28 2007: 6:52 PM EDT


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The weakness in the U.S. economy apparently goes beyond the well-publicized problems in the housing and the subprime mortgage sector, as businesses continue to pull back on their spending.
A government report on demand for big-ticket items Wednesday came in weaker than expected, damaging the hopes of some economists that strong business spending would help the economy weather the current weakness in housing.

The report showed new orders for durable goods, which range from vehicles and aircraft to machinery, computers and appliances, rose 2.5 percent, compared to a revised 9.3 percent decline in January.
Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast a 3.5 percent gain.

 

[fabijo]

Carefully worded to play both sides of any scenario.

:laugh: Sounds a bit like someone I've seen on these boards!

 

[offtrack]

Something to watch in the future

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/03/28/bloomberg/bxbond.5.php


By Daniel Kruger and Annie Pinkert Bloomberg News
NEW YORK: Prices for U.S. Treasury securities were mixed Wednesday after a government auction drew fewer bids from foreign investors than the previous monthly sale, raising concern that they might be pulling back from U.S government notes and bonds.
"We have been relying on foreign investors the last few years to buy our bonds and keep interest rates lower than they would have been," said Gary Pollack, head of fixed-income trading at Deutsche Bank's private wealth management unit in New York

 

[James48843]

Nice open.

 

[Oldcoin]

Think there might have been an injection of cash from the fed today?

 

[robo]

Is The Rally Over?
March 30, 2007

After a week of advances, including two bullish accumulation days, the stock market appears to have rolled over and resumed its bearish ways. But there are strong support levels just ahead.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX), which closed at 1422 Thursday, can be expected to find support at 1400-1392. The Nasdaq Composite Index (COMPQ) should find support at 2396-2380, the upper level of which was reached intra-day on Thursday, and the Russell 2000 Index (RUT) should find support at 786-780, about one percent below Thursday’s close at 794.

If we see reversals in these indexes at support, the market should make a run for the 2007 highs. If support levels do not hold, we will be looking at a test of the correction lows in coming days.

http://timing.typepad.com/timer/

 

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
March 29, 2007 Closing​

Yak, Le Charts, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tally Can

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Not as bad?

Con-Yak...................................Guess we have to play the Volatility!

Jester-Yak................................Energy now becomes the joker!

Le Charts

Charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com​

Doodles:
Stops.......................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX........1422.53 +5.30.........X1423............1409

Dollar........................................83.09 +0.02 for the day.

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at...............66.83 +1.95 for the day.
Oil Markers.................................<60= ok, 60-65= worry, >65= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Yellow / Red (energy).

Tally Can
TSP Funds..................................G-fund, F-fund, C-fund, S-fund, I-fund.
Top 10 last 12 mo........................4.5 ......2.5 ......0.3 .....0.8 ......2.0
Today........................................4 made IFT(s), 70% bearish, 30% bullish.
Yesterday...................................1 made IFT(s), 63% bearish, 38% bullish.

 

[ATCJeff]

What happened in Europe in the last 30 minutes? Everything is now way up!

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?s=^FT...EX,^MIBTEL,^OMXSPI,^BFX,OMXC20.CO,^OSEAX,^ATX

 

[ChemEng]

Is the DAX really up 3.30%?

 

[James48843]

Is the DAX really up 3.30%?

No- something is screwy.

DAX is up 24 points from yesterday's close-
Yesterday's close was 6,897.08
Right now Yahoo is showing DAX at 6,921.

Yahoo is showing up 217 points.

Must be something strange in the timing. It's up 3% from Wednesday, but not that much from yesterday's close.