Market Talk / Jan. 22 - 28

[The_Technician]

Housing stats are hitting

the markets in the stomach.....So goes the housing goes the markets.....it was George Bush senior who in his National address to the country, in his first year, that said as he was beating his fist....."The key to our economy is homes, homes, homes. " or something of that flavor....and it seems everything that is possible has been done to to make it so and is now ending....thats a long run.....

I purchased some mobile home stock some time soon after that and made 100% in a few days.....

oh the good 'ole days....

Heres a must read.....
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20060125/wl_afp/forumdavoseconomy2006_060125185418
if you want to know where we're going.

 

[Master]

MSCI has the EAFE at +0.565% for today. That should kick it up by 10 cents/share (~18.28)

 

[bkrownd]

MSCI has the EAFE at +0.565% for today. That should kick it up by 10 cents/share (~18.28)

Well at least I don't have to feel horrible about mistakenly buying some at 18.15...yet.

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
Jan. 25, 2006​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves, and The Tin Box.

Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak............ Socks have jitters. Vestors indoors as Horsemen wander about. Will they stay or go?
Other Yak.............. Lube slowly seeping down.

Doodles:
Socks................... S&P 500 ($SPX)
Closed at.............. 1264.68, dn +2.18
Money flow............ +0.089, declining.
Stops................... NA.
Averages............... +2.35, declining.
Slow STO.............. 23.03, declining.
Overbought/sold..... [70] 46.4 [30]

Lube..................... Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at............... 65.87, dn -1.21
Markers:............... <60 = ok, 60-65 = worry, >65 = critical.

Tea leaves:
Charts and Stuff...... Red.

The Tin Box:
Position.................. 100%G.

 

[coolhand]

Heres a must read.....
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20060125/wl_afp/forumdavoseconomy2006_060125185418
if you want to know where we're going.[/QUOTE]


The problem I see here tech, is that the article fails to mention how the chinese economy will manage to continue to grow at past levels if the US economy falters. We have been the catalyst for quite some time while everyone else is saving money. This global economy is way too complicated and manipulated to say any scenario will playout.

 

[vectorman]

Looks like a good day for a rally. Hope it holds. Wonder what tomorrow will bring, more institutional selling?
http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/index.html
Wonder how many people plan on selling into the rally?

Hey Nnuuts, GDP and new home sells come out tomorrow.
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html

 

[Dave M]

Yes, it does. January is turning out to be a very very good month. (Unless, of course, you've been hanging out in the F-fund or G-fund.) D

 

[The_Technician]

Another housing eval

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060126/ap_on_bi_ge/economy;_ylt=A0SOwlbRx9hDYzkAdAeyBhIF;_ylu=X3oDMTA5aHJvMDdwBHNlYwN5bmNhdA--

This issue is not to be taken lightly....every industry/job is affected in one way or another by this.....combined with the slack in the auto industry (due to higher quality and larger operating expenses) this falling economic icon (a result of higher interest rates, commodity prices, labor costs and so forth) has a dulling effect to our future economy.....

What we really need right now is a new development.....cheap new energy is the answer.....and it would take us out 30 years in a growing economic spiral...plus reduce our dependence on oil.......of course without additional income in the household it would have to be cheap....and advantageous for the household to purchase over the current energy sources....(not just a new source at an even expense to the buyer)

Lower taxes would be a great help also.....its about time the Pork barrel projects get axed......they need to quit using the Fed/state tax systems as a major source of public money to give to "perferred " contractors....

As we cut closer to the bone things will have to happen, for there isn't much left........

Another point....
I'm expecting before this is all over, our cross sectional eval of personal wealth will resemble much of the rest of the world.... I was told that the local Russian only makes $200-$300 per year and doesn't own much....if that is true...we sure have a long way to go to down....why do I see delapidated (sp) homes along side of the deteriorated roads and bridges in the future.....maybe because of the US deficit....a looming problem.

 

[nnuut]

Looks like a good day for a rally. Hope it holds. Wonder what tomorrow will bring, more institutional selling?
http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/index.html
Wonder how many people plan on selling into the rally?

Hey Nnuuts, GDP and new home sells come out tomorrow.
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html

Yes Vectorman, lots of "stuff" coming out today and tomorrow. I've been lucky lately and missed some of the big losses, made me a little over cautious I guess. Looks up today in premarket, but i'm gonna sit this one out! Good luck in your investments.
Norman

 

[Cortez]

Bears in short term control

Every strong morning is met by selling before the day is out. Market needs to break last fridays low again and take a run back to a lower support area before we can make another run up. Being long stock funds at this point is fighting against a strong downstream current. Let the momentum ease and then ride the current upstream back to Jan highs.

 

[Wizard]

Jamming ya right before the yield curve inverts.

Groovy.

 

[Wizard]

Another move the yields up day in preps for the .25 move.

Good luck those in F fund.

 

[Wheels]

Decided to make a one day move today to 100% F.

I was feeling pretty good about myself. Seemed like all my moves so far this year were working out perfectly. Oh well, can't get them all right, hopefully a buying opportunity will present itself soon. I don't like being out for long.

Dave
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[Wizard]

Observation here: This stock market is under a lot of pressure. The futures up strongly overnight and quickly selling off and closing lower then where we were at 10am is not bullish. This has been the trend all week. I am permaneutral. There are times to be in and times to be out of stocks. I have been out of stocks since Jan 11th and extremely happy I am.

I may be looking to go into the I fund after the Fed Rate Hike depending on the statement. I.E., if they say more coming USD goes up. If they say we are done USD goes down. Until then kick the feet up and watch the fight.

 

[robo]

Watch out for a head fake rally

Tom has been pointing out about getting whipsawed. The charts are indicating this could be a head fake rally followed by a sharp decline soon.
The Shark also pointed out caution in his comments. Keep your finger close to the eject button just in case. In my opinion the risk reward is climbing.

Good trading and the Trend is your friend!!!!

 

[Wizard]

Tom has been pointing out about getting whipsawed. The charts are indicating this could be a head fake rally followed by a sharp decline soon.
The Shark also pointed out caution in his comments. Keep your finger close to the eject button just in case. In my opinion the risk reward is climbing.

Good trading and the Trend is your friend!!!!

The Fed fund rate and the 10 year yield being the same in a couple days is probably not a good thing.

 

[Wizard]

I hope bonds have a parachute. They are in freefall. .

30 year 1.14%
10 year .95%.

Wonder when someone gives the folks in the stock pits a nudge.

Even with this move the fed fund rate and the 10 year will be the same.

 

[vectorman]

Every strong morning is met by selling before the day is out. Market needs to break last fridays low again and take a run back to a lower support area before we can make another run up. Being long stock funds at this point is fighting against a strong downstream current. Let the momentum ease and then ride the current upstream back to Jan highs.

Except yesterday, in the S&P and Dow there was buying in the last hour. The Dax and FTSE on tuesday, was up then sold at the end, but yesterday was different, buying in the end. The Dax and S&P follow similar chart paths. The S&P still has some catching up to do. With the S and I up decent, the C is sure to follow. Time it right and make a little extra $$. Also the risk at this point may be much greater than catching the reward. I also look for the DAX and FTSE to retest their recent lows again before moving on.

 

[Birchtree]

Don't tug on Superman's cape

The bigger risk simply is being out not being in the market.

Proponents of the idea that a flatter yield curve doesn't bode dark times for stocks point to the mid-1990s, when the spread between the two-year and 10-year Treasury note narrowed dramatically after a rate-tightening cycle by the Fed. In the wake of that narrowing spread the S&P 500 rallied 34% in 1995, and 20% in 1996.

Also, in 2005 the S&P 500 compoanies spent more than $300 billion on buybacks, up more than 50% from 2004. Care to dispute if you think this is spin.

Is housing slowing - so what? Housing is more than 5% of GDP, for example, but it is a fraction of 1% of the stock market. There is probably a one for one split between what is consumer-related and what is business related in the S&P 500; in the GDP data, the split is about five to one. The SPX will rely more on their export earnings.

Dennis - still permabull #2

 

[vectorman]

Looks like the C is doing some catching up today. Birchtree is right about risk. You loose less sleep as a buy and hold. Over all the maket is still trending up for the last 3 years.