Market Talk / Jan. 22 - 28

[vectorman]

All the foreign markets were way down but EAFE is way up? WTF?

The power of a weak US dollar. For those just getting back in the I fund tonight, let hope the TSP police don't fudge to high on the numbers. MSCI was up 0.489%.

 

[vectorman]

dup dup

 

[bkrownd]

The power of a weak US dollar. For those just getting back in the I fund tonight, let hope the TSP police don't fudge to high on the numbers. MSCI was up 0.489%.

Yeah, but the markets were down even more than the dollar was. I thought at worst it would be neutral. Next time the buying looks good I'm staying up until 3-4 AM for the opening numbers to make sure. grrrr

 

[JOVARN]

I was looking at Fed Smith today and they have a direct like to tsptalk
Tom when is the IPO being released?

 

[Wizard]

Big AH report TXN. Halted and now down 2.5%.

 

[Wizard]

TXN now down 3.5%.

MFE (McAfee) reported down 14.5%.

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
Jan. 23, 2006​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves, and The Tin Box.

Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak............ Socks rebound as Horsemen roam free (energy and earnings).
Other Yak.............. Lube high on global problems.

Doodles:
Socks................... S&P 500 ($SPX)
Closed at.............. 1263.82, up +2.33
Money flow............ +0.178, declining.
Stops................... Alert: 1282 [broken], Trailing: 1270 [broken].
Averages............... +4.39, declining.
Slow STO.............. 49.59, declining.
Overbought/sold..... [70] 45.8 [30]

Lube..................... Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at............... 68.10, dn -0.38
Markers:................ <60 = ok, 60-65 = worry, >65 = critical.

Tea leaves:
Charts and Stuff..... Red.

The Tin Box:
Position................. 75%G, 25%F.

 

[Wizard]

Solid in the pre market. JNJ is the only big stink up. It is a DOW stock but should not effect that much.

Solid opening on tap. Only caution flag is the 20 year auction at 1pm.

I just am not sure how they are going to pull this off. Have folks buy a 20 (240 month) year bond at 4.40% and a rate hike that will put the short term rate at 4.5% next week - probably a money market will yield more then 4.40 this time next month. Only a real dumb person would buy today. No offense. It is not a good move.

With that in mind. Going to stay 100% G. USD is bouncing. F fund the bond pit has not positioned for the rate hike yet. That will probably happen on Friday but if a big boy blinks first they will all rush to square their positions. Of course if the 20 year auction goes bad - yields will move up and stocks will sell off.

That is my take on the morning.

 

[Birchtree]

Snort, snort from the pasture

Perhaps the bond buyers are anticipating a capital gain when the Fed starts reducing rates in the second half.

The economy may slow in 2006, but that doesn't necessarily mean bad news for stocks, especially the S&P 500 types. Sometimes a moderate economy can actually extend the amount of time that the expansion can continue. Slower growth is in my favor with the C fund - just ask The Technician.

Dennis - permabull #2

 

[learning]

I went G fund and have started to go back to the S fund. I also pulled from the I fund and will start moving back tommorow. I hope to see people happy that we will have a new Fed at the end of the month. I also hope for a good day on Feb 2nd. If I recall that will be the next time the Fed has their say. I hope for good things if Iran does not blow it for us.

 

[Wizard]

Newsflash: The economy is all ready slowing.

On the other hand, we have so much new debt to auction off that the FOMC can not stop raising rates.

Their charter is to fight inflation, not hold up asset prices.

If FOMC stops raising they will get handed inflation they can not contain. Poor treasury auctions due the sinking dollar = out of control inflation.

Basic economics here - not spin.

Anyone that has fallen for the fed is all most done and bought these fake out rallies and not sold into them has been doing themselves a disservice. Just like January 6th. Fed is done because the job report was a miss by 100%. Market rallies for a week. USD falls for a week. Which do you think FOMC cares about?

 

[Birchtree]

Gimmee a G

If I were lounging with the choir group in the comfort of the G fund, I would sing my song of detriment and despair with a megaphone trying to save as many unsuspecting participants as possible. You are commended. However, since fixed income is unhealthy for my retirement progress, I'll be quiet and simply dollar cost average every calamity that comes along until I reach nirvana.

Dennis - perma bull#2

 

[Birchtree]

New all-time highs

New all-time high for the Dow Transports if the rally holds today

New all-time high for the R2K if the rally holds today.

NYSE Composite is next.

Just the facts - no spin

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
Jan. 24, 2006​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves, and The Tin Box.

Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak............ Modest gains in socks, earnings remain bumpy.
Other Yak.............. Lube seeping down from highs as production and weather hold.

Doodles:
Socks................... S&P 500 ($SPX)
Closed at.............. 1265.25, up +3.04
Money flow............ +0.113, declining.
Stops................... NA.
Averages............... +3.36, declining.
Slow STO.............. 28.77, declining.
Overbought/sold..... [70] 47.7 [30]

Lube.................... Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at.............. 67.06, dn -1.04
Markers:............... <60 = ok, 60-65 = worry, >65 = critical.

Tea leaves:
Charts and Stuff..... Red.

The Tin Box:
Position................. 100%G.

 

[The_Technician]

Knowledge is power

http://money.cnn.com/2006/01/25/magazines/fortune/pluggedin_fortune/index.htm

 

[Wizard]

Starting my Bernie preps. Happy Helicopters.

Yields are flying in the bond pits.

Should be an interesting day today.

 

[Wizard]

Based on the market action this morning. This is my take:

http://www.interactivemis.com/pkinlock/cats/flush.jpg

 

[Wheels]

Decided to make a one day move today to 100% F. Looking over todays threads it seems like quite a few of us are thinking alike. Hoping to catch a little bounce. Here's my concern though, I think with the Fed's fund rate going up to 4.5% next week pretty much a done deal, won't the ten year note try to makes it's way up there too? Kind of like water seeking it's own level. In any event, I'm pretty sure the G fund isn't paying tomorrow so I thought I'd try to make a penny or two in the F. Hopefully stocks will together for this one last day.

Dave
<><

 

[Wheels]

Uh oh. Stocks not looking so good. I hope we are not heading for another blood bath.

Dave
<><

 

[Cortez]

Downtrend reestablishing itself

Uh oh. Stocks not looking so good. I hope we are not heading for another blood bath.

Dave
<><

The SPX is resuming its downtrend line started from Jan 12 high (blue line upper left to lower right on attached chart) and broke friday's low of 1260.92 with a 1260.84 around 12:25pm today. The next test will be at 1245.74 which is the Dec 30 swing low. If today's SPX close is below yesterday's low, I would consider it a confirmation of the break of the uptrend started from the October lows (uptrend was technically broke last friday but SPX has been tracking upward along that trend line (yellow line) with rallies failing at that line this week. See attached chart of SPX from 1pm today. This is a 10 day, 30 min chart.