Market Talk / Feb. 12 - 18

[TiCKed]

I sure hope so. I've been waiting for a good spot to jump in. I hate being out of stocks for this long. I knew when stocks went up on Tuesday that it was going to be a strong week and that I had missed my spot.

Dave
<><

Yeah....that's why I asked. I pulled a relatively small amount out of stocks, and I'm hoping to get it back in again. But nobody's giving me gurantees!

 

[Birchtree]

Sorry amigo

Tomorrow will more than likely be a continuation of this current up cycle move - it has been missed by many who will begin to climb a board. Waiting for a decline will only cost more in the future. Your choice.

 

[Wizard]

Wizard,

It wasn't that long ago when an 8.5% mortgage was common - you simply purchased a smaller adobe.

Not that long ago we need not have a negative savings rate.

 

[Rod]

This has to be a glitch:

Australia ASX Mid-cap 50:

-42,196.80

-896.07%

4,673.50 2/17 4:20pm

 

[Fivetears]

Not the First Time.

FYI:

By Robert Schroeder, MarketWatch
Last Update: 11:24 AM ET Feb 16, 2006


WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. Treasury acted Thursday to avoid hitting the national debt limit and
said it's "imperative" Congress raise the debt ceiling by the middle of March.

Treasury is suspending reinvestment in the so-called "G-Fund," an investment vehicle for a federal
employees' retirement system. The action will free up $65.266 billion, a Treasury spokeswoman said.

Beneficiaries of the government retirement fund won't be affected by the temporary halting of reinvestment,

Snow explained to Frist. The fund will recoup all payments, including interest, Snow said.
"Once I am able to make the G-Fund whole, the effect on the G-Fund and its beneficiaries will be the same
as if this temporary action had never taken place,"

They also did this in March of 2003 while I was called to active duty and deployed for Operation Iwacky Freedom. If memory serves me correctly, the G-Fund is the only TSP fund they can tap; by law (at least the letter they sent us while we were deployed read that way). F,C,S,I, and I believe the new L-Funds are currently off limits. I'm sure congress is engineering a narrow loophole under the table that's always been there though.

I've always wondered... what if congress ever ENRONS the G-Fund, what will happen? They've already blown our Social Security.

Kinda make's you wonder how safe your retirement really is... sitting in the G?

Oh yeah, Mr. Snow promised he'd put it all back. My Bad.

 

[TiCKed]

They also did this in March of 2003 while I was called to active duty and deployed for Operation Iwacky Freedom.

Yeah, I remember that. My memory is fading o ), but I recall at the time that it wasn't so much that they were borrowing funds, but that they couldn't sell the securities that the G was based on...debt ceiling. But they promised (and actually did) make up for any "lost" funds. Could be the case now as well??

I seem to remember some complaining at the time....but whatcha gonna do?

Tomorrow will more than likely be a continuation of this current up cycle move - it has been missed by many who will begin to climb a board. Waiting for a decline will only cost more in the future. Your choice.

Futures are down, and Pacific markets are down. Either way, I made a small move back in. I think there's some room on the up-side as well. (Why I suddenly lost that feeling on Wednesday, I don't know...except that I'm "dumb money" )

 

[grandma]

...and everyone remembers that Monday is a Federal/TSP holiday, right ???

 

[Fivetears]

...and everyone remembers that Monday is a Federal/TSP holiday, right ???

Yep. M_M told us.

 

[Fivetears]

Yeah, I remember that. My memory is fading o ), but I recall at the time that it wasn't so much that they were borrowing funds, but that they couldn't sell the securities that the G was based on...debt ceiling. But they promised (and actually did) make up for any "lost" funds. Could be the case now as well??

I seem to remember some complaining at the time....but whatcha gonna do?

Quite a bit of complaining, since we couldn't touch our TSP while on "Leave Without Pay U.S." G Folks wanted to jump to the F but couldn't. Lotsa unhappy activated Civil Service troops.

Did you collect your 22 days of "double dip" congress authorized in 2003 before you got activated; in addition to using your civil service leave and military leave before your activation? Every single activated ART member of the 433rd AW Maintenance Group was conveniently forgotten about. We JUST found out about this Monday. There were MANY others left out of receiving this congressionally approved benefit. We are fighting it as I write this.

 

[The_Technician]

Dollar looks to

be weakening some, I'd expect it to bounce around a bit and then weaken for a while....hence the I fund should be looking enticing.....

Govt' is in a tight spot with debt .....sooner or later its gonna break and then everything is off the table... but the end effect will be everyone will contribute to the debt in one way or another whether forced or not to paying the banking system for financing our peace saving endeavors and such for 50 years.....

Forced servatude......

 

[Wheels]

Dollar looks to be weakening some, I'd expect it to bounce around a bit and then weaken for a while....hence the I fund should be looking enticing.....

????????
Dollar is solidly higher against the yen, the euro, and the pound this morning.

Dave
<><

 

[Wizard]

Fed Fund Rate (over night) - 4.50%
30 Year - 4.51%

 

[Wheels]

????????
Dollar is solidly higher against the yen, the euro, and the pound this morning.

Dave
<><

Ahhhh. I see the difference now. You're post was before PPI, mine was after. The dollar must have changed gears big time.

Dave
<><

 

[Birchtree]

Worry so much for not

The makers of wholesale finished goods are having a hard time passing their high materials costs to customers. Meantime, consumer prices are rising by even less than headline PPI. The January Consumer Price Index, due out Wednesday, will be about 3.9% higher than it was a year ago.

The good news is that there is a chance the Federal Reserve's worries about inflation might be a little ovrerdone. If companies can't pass on cost increases, it reduces the risk that price hikes are going to spread like wildfire throughout the economy.

The bad news is that this is also a formula for profit margin pressure. However, foe many companies, energy and materials costs are small compared to other expenses such as labor or interest. Because those latter costs haven't been rising by all that much (especially for companies tapping into cheaper, overseas workers) they're not seeing so much of a pinch.

Most Wall Streeters expect to see more than 70% of companies in the S&P 500 stock index to see profit margins improve this year. Hooah!

 

[LongRun]

not exactly double

Sorry for the OT reply, but i know how frustrating this can be for the people who serve our country.

Did you collect your 22 days of "double dip" congress authorized in 2003 before you got activated; in addition to using your civil service leave and military leave before your activation? Every single activated ART member of the 433rd AW Maintenance Group was conveniently forgotten about. We JUST found out about this Monday. There were MANY others left out of receiving this congressionally approved benefit. We are fighting it as I write this.

The 22 day law enforcement leave only gives you the greater of your civil service or military pay, so it's not exactly double dipping. I used it to help fill the gap in federal service while I was activated. My payroll office and DFAS service center did not handle the transaction correctly and the result was that I got double paid for the period in 2004. I had to repay my federal debt for the overpayment in 2005, hence REALLY screwing up my taxes for 2005. I feel the biggest benifit for Fedreal Employees using this leave is to help avoiding a gap in service for deployments. I would do it again, now that I have been the guinie pig and my payroll office knows how to administer the leave. The DFAS web site has all the details for administering this program. It's also on the OPM website. BTW I am a National Guard Technician

 

[Wheels]

Was thinking that I would jump in today if the market was down. However now I'm a little worried about that PPI running a little hot this morning. If CPI is also high on Tuesday, the market could take a big hit.

hmmmmmmmmm what to do what to do

Dave
<><

 

[Birchtree]

Am I crazy or just too full of bull manure?

What would happen if the Chinese populace were allowed via Hong Kong to purchase U.S. market stocks. With their exploding middle class seeking further economic gain. The population is essentially capitalistic - what is China planning to do with all the commercial aviation they are buying. They are going to be delivering Chinese tourists to the Grand Canyon - and we'll collect the fees as a tax. It will help in some way with the trade deficit - maybe.

 

[Wizard]

Most Wall Streeters expect to see more than 70% of companies in the S&P 500 stock index to see profit margins improve this year. Hooah!

Link?

 

[Wizard]

Debt ceiling: $8,184T

02/15/2006 $8,237,616,021,113.28



--------------------------------
White House requests $115B for Iraq, Afghanistan

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2006-02-16-spending_x.htm

 

[Wizard]

What would happen if the Chinese populace were allowed via Hong Kong to purchase U.S. market stocks. With their exploding middle class seeking further economic gain. The population is essentially capitalistic - what is China planning to do with all the commercial aviation they are buying. They are going to be delivering Chinese tourists to the Grand Canyon - and we'll collect the fees as a tax. It will help in some way with the trade deficit - maybe.

They are buying gold.

Travel to China and Hong Kong and see for yourself.

Couch Coach.