Market Talk / Feb. 12 - 18

[Birchtree]

A global uplifting

As long as the 10 year rate remains below the 7% level, it has always had a positive effect on stock prices.

A global uplifting seems to be taking place, bottoms above bottoms, trendline tops being penetrated, everywhere you look, the overall broad market strength here is very exciting. We have to wait for volume to catch up to what breadth of market continues to suggest. A long lasting and powerful price advance considering the current price pattern structure. I hope that makes most participants nervous - it definitely is safer in the G fund - listen to the Technician.

The key to economic forecasting is to find indicators which can tell you when things are about to slow down - anybody seen any lately?

Dennis - permabull #2

 

[JOVARN]

There were no share prices posted on Fed Smith either.
Maybe a technical meltdown

 

[Robo5555]

Here's today's TSP share prices


Individual Funds:
G Fund Government Securities 11.22
F Fund Fixed Income Index 10.65
C Fund Common Stock Index 13.93
S Fund Small Cap Stock Index 17.02
I Fund International Stock Index 18.25

 

[Wizard]

As long as the 10 year rate remains below the 7% level, it has always had a positive effect on stock prices.

The key to economic forecasting is to find indicators which can tell you when things are about to slow down - anybody seen any lately?

Dennis - permabull #2

10 year at 7% would put mortgage rates at 8.50% plus.

Last GDP was 1.1%. Another indicator that you missed?

 

[Soldat]

A global uplifting seems to be taking place, bottoms above bottoms, trendline tops being penetrated, everywhere you look, the overall broad market strength here is very exciting.

I would agree Birch, bottoms above bottoms. With an increasing world population, the trend will continue up.

 

[robo]

They're Back!!! The 1280's I mean.

The S&P 500 has already broken out above its downtrend line, and now must face the resistance just above at 1285 where it has been stopped twice recently.


The real question is, "Would an up move today be the beginning of a longer term up move, or a short term rise that reverses and catches everyone with a downside loss.

At some point we get a big break-out, but we still need the volume. Tom talked about this in his comments, we need the buyers! I still think we need one Big Final Squeeze on the Bears to start a Big Rally.

In the mean time you can still make money in this narrow trading range, but the risk/reward is high. Good trading for those making frequent moves. Nice rally the last coulpe of days. The 1290's might be tougher for Mr Market.

Staying with some Internationals and Emerging Markets and lots of cash. Looking for a nice oversold short term play or a NICE LONGER TERM TREND TO BUY! GO Birchtree, I know you will lead the way to 1360's!

The TA's I follow using ETF's 3 shorting and they are bleeding, 2 cash.

 

[Wizard]

The F fund is having another "interesting looking" chart day.

 

[Wizard]

10:45 Treasury suspends fund payments to avoid hitting debt limit

--------
NEWSFLASH - The treasury is all ready over the debt limit.

02/14/2006 $8,209,586,113,365.83

Debt limit: $8,184T.

This must be bullish?

 

[TiCKed]

Quite the battle going on. Bears and Bulls fighting it out on the S&P.

If anyone doubts the concept of resistance (which might describe my general un-schooled attitude), the plot might change one's mind.

 

[FundSurfer]

Gotta wonder....

First where did you read they are suspending fund payments? Are you meaning TSP fund payments?

This means that they will track gains as if they had actually occurred and pay us interest on deposits as if they had occurred which is screwy cause by taking that action they are affecting the market. Anyone interested in filing a class action lawsuit? Our grandkids might one day get a few bucks out of it....

Gotta wonder if our TSP fund manager will charge extra for this manipulation.....count on it....wonder who will actually pay for it?

Now if they stopped fund payments do you think they stopped the governments contribution and our contribution? I'd bet they stopped both...

This kind of treatment is one reason for the federal government not wanting to make the lifecycle funds the default fund. It would cut back on the amount of money cheaply loaned to the federal government...

The federal goverment plays games like this all the time, raiding SS and such....

 

[Rod]

Just a reminder everyone, don't forget about the Fed Holiday on Monday.

US Markets will be closed.

God Bless

 

[Rod]

Ben is talking again... I'm watching him on CNBC.

 

[mlk_man]

First where did you read they are suspending fund payments? Are you meaning TSP fund payments?

He probably won't answer you Dave. He might consider it top secret privileged information. You can read about it here:

http://finance.yahoo.com/bonds/market_summary/article/200001/bond_ticker

 

[Fivetears]

TSP is next.

First where did you read they are suspending fund payments? Are you meaning TSP fund payments?

This means that they will track gains as if they had actually occurred and pay us interest on deposits as if they had occurred which is screwy cause by taking that action they are affecting the market. Anyone interested in filing a class action lawsuit? Our grandkids might one day get a few bucks out of it....

Gotta wonder if our TSP fund manager will charge extra for this manipulation.....count on it....wonder who will actually pay for it?

Now if they stopped fund payments do you think they stopped the governments contribution and our contribution? I'd bet they stopped both...

This kind of treatment is one reason for the federal government not wanting to make the lifecycle funds the default fund. It would cut back on the amount of money cheaply loaned to the federal government...

The federal goverment plays games like this all the time, raiding SS and such....

Wait until they start tapping the TSP; Like Social Security.

 

[roguewave]

Wait until they start tapping the TSP; Like Social Security.

FYI:

By Robert Schroeder, MarketWatch
Last Update: 11:24 AM ET Feb 16, 2006


WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. Treasury acted Thursday to avoid hitting the national debt limit and
said it's "imperative" Congress raise the debt ceiling by the middle of March.

Treasury is suspending reinvestment in the so-called "G-Fund," an investment vehicle for a federal
employees' retirement system. The action will free up $65.266 billion, a Treasury spokeswoman said.
"Without this action we would reach the debt limit today," spokeswoman Brookly McLaughlin said Thursday.
Congress and the Bush administration have been negotiating an increase in the current $8.18 trillion debt
limit. On Wednesday Treasury said it would suspend sales of state and local government non-marketable securities.
Now Treasury Secretary John Snow is urging Congress to raise the debt limit by mid-March.

"I know that you share the president's and my commitment to maintaining the full faith and credit of the
United States," Snow wrote to Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, R-Tenn., on Thursday.
Beneficiaries of the government retirement fund won't be affected by the temporary halting of reinvestment,

Snow explained to Frist. The fund will recoup all payments, including interest, Snow said.
"Once I am able to make the G-Fund whole, the effect on the G-Fund and its beneficiaries will be the same
as if this temporary action had never taken place," Snow wrote to Frist.

Meanwhile, with the federal budget deficit projected to reach $423 billion in 2006, both Republicans and
Democrats have so far balked at raising the debt limit.

Robert Schroeder is a reporter for MarketWatch in Washington.

 

[TiCKed]

Tomorrow???

Here's a question for the seers, (and for the seers to check my work):

Tomorrow is a Friday before a 3-day weekend, and following a nice run-up. I'm guessing we'll see some profit taking and consolidating. Down markets.

What do you see?

 

[LA_Guy]

I agree that we'll have some profit taking tomorrow.

 

[Rod]

I believe tomorrow may bring low volume along with a choppy day b/c of the holiday.

The majority of profit taking may begin next week as new highs are tested.

God Bless

 

[Birchtree]

Initial estimate

Wizard,

It wasn't that long ago when an 8.5% mortgage was common - you simply purchased a smaller adobe.

The GDP figure of +1.1% for the fourth quarter was weak, but it was an initial estimate that lacked December data for foreign trade, construction, and inventories. The GDP will undoubtedly be revised upwards for the next two revisions. At the same time, several factors hint that GDP growth for the current quarter could be on the strong side.

 

[Wheels]

Here's a question for the seers, (and for the seers to check my work):

Tomorrow is a Friday before a 3-day weekend, and following a nice run-up. I'm guessing we'll see some profit taking and consolidating. Down markets.

What do you see?

I sure hope so. I've been waiting for a good spot to jump in. I hate being out of stocks for this long. I knew when stocks went up on Tuesday that it was going to be a strong week and that I had missed my spot.

Dave
<><