Market Talk / Feb. 12 - 18

[NASAguy]

I agree, the dollar looks good for a little while. Maybe as good as low 1.17's or into the 1.16's. Then would be a good time to get into the I fund as it will probably fall from there. Japan and Europe look like they will be raising rates and the US can't go much beyond 5.25% without scaring everyone to death. As long as the overseas markets hold up, the I fund will be the place to be.

Right now, I'm just waiting. Based on the strong consumer demand I'm betting on at least two more increases here.

 

[Wizard]

The USD broke out at 88.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=usd

91 will provide some resistance if it breaks through there we will retest the November highs.

This is a very bullish chart.

Nice consolidation at 90. Now it is going to run higher.

 

[Wheels]

Dollar seems to be dropping again today....still expecting 1.17's soon....I fund should suffer....

Wrong on two counts. While the dollar may be dropping against the yen, it is stronger against the Pound and the Euro. And the I fund does better when the dollar drops.

Dave
<><

 

[Wizard]

Another gap and crap.

Looks like the "dumb money" stock traders have figured it out.

Good on em.

 

[The_Technician]

yeap typo

Wrong on two counts. While the dollar may be dropping against the yen, it is stronger against the Pound and the Euro. And the I fund does better when the dollar drops.

Dave
<><

Meant that the Euro is dropping against the dollar....looking for the I fund to drop about 8% in the next month or so (Feds will notice that inflation is not in check, oil and such....).....then we will see where we are going from there.....

The worst problem is when the dollar gains in value so does oil in dollars which is inflationary and then we raise interest rates again.....I will invent a new term...."Self-inflation" to describe this scenario.........

I will add one more thing, I mentiones that the S fund looks pretty good, I think its a little early to jump in the S fund for a shorty.....

 

[Birchtree]

Sideways to nowhere

The recent sideways consolidation has been a little misleading. If you own a broad market portfolio the pain of a correction has been felt. The market has washed over the gains of the November rally during the last 2 and 1/2 months pulling select stocks out of their comfort zones. This is actually a healthy mechanism forming a base to move higher. No pain no gain.

It probably won't be long before oil is below $60.00 - that relieves a lot of pressure. Retail sales and inventory builds will eventually lead into more production and an upwardly revised fourth quarter GDP. Bernanke will I believe pause if he is watching inflation data. Tomorrow will be exciting, especially for us adventuresome bulls.

Dividend reinvestment and dollar cost averaging is the way to play a side ways market.

Dennis

 

[The_Technician]

Saudi minister

seems a bit peeeved..
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060207/sc_nm/energy_saudi_alterntatives_dc_1

and his statement on economics of producing such alternatives is incorrect at that....

 

[Spaf]

Where's the money!

The Kingdom of TSP
Feb. 14, 2006​

Coin Keeper: Money's are in safe mode.

History: [RE: S&P 500] Mid October of 2005 marked new lower lows for the market. Stocks rose in bullish momentum to late November, there after resting in a trading range to the end of the year.

The New Year brought a buyers euphoria that lasted several days where the S&P advanced about 50 points. However, after the euphoria subsided, stocks have settled into a bearish trend establishing lower highs and lower lows, through January and into February.

Viewing the S&P 500, there is a range of about 50 points that excites the market. In the 1200 range the market is over sold and invites buyers. Above 1250 the market gets overbought and invites sellers.

As energy prices rise to close on $70 the market feels resistance, below $60 the market feels a level of support.

Seasonality, the last day of Feburary and the first half of March appear favorable. However, for conservative preservation of capital the safe funds appear to be the best choise. That is until a bullish trend can be seen in the market. As long as the Fed. keeps raising interest rates, bonds will not be in favor. So the F-fund is kind of out of the picture.

Setting up 100% contributions to the G-fund always protects new contributions from the downside. The current trend in the market is one of gradual bearish decline. Capital preservation appears to be the option of the day, that is until the bulls can be enticed to change the momentum of the market.

Rgds, and be careful! Spaf

 

[Birchtree]

11,000 or busted

Anybody brave enough to predict a run to 11,000 on the Dow today, besides me. Up already to 10,988 and up 96 Dow points - early in the day. So many would prefer to see a 1500 hour roll over that has been so common of late, but perhaps not today. This could eventually end up being a sneaky break out kind of day - whew. I am so ready. Bring on the shorts and let'em bleed.

Dennis

 

[vectorman]

Anybody brave enough to predict a run to 11,000 on the Dow today, besides me. Up already to 10,988 and up 96 Dow points - early in the day. So many would prefer to see a 1500 hour roll over that has been so common of late, but perhaps not today. This could eventually end up being a sneaky break out kind of day - whew. I am so ready. Bring on the shorts and let'em bleed.

Dennis

Posted 2-9-06 by vectorman. Now that thread has a lock on it???

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Dow has tested the 10,700 area 4 times since the middle of December; oil is around 62.65; Iran is just become noise; alot of people are being caught trying to short the market. Wouldn't it be just like the market to continue climbing in the short term to retest its high. Then when those on the sidelines jump in because they feel they're missing out. down we go. Feel the drama.

Also posted 2-9-06 reply back to Cortez:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cortez
This is a rally into resistance at the downtrending line connecting swing highs this year. SPX will retest 1245 support early next week. If you don't sell CSI, you may luck out, but the odds favor the downside.


We have alittle room to move higher. http://www.stocktiming.com/Thursday-...rketUpdate.htm

If oil prices remain stable, SPX is on its way to closing above 1300 in the up coming days or by the end of next week. You may laugh, but my glass is half full.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Cortez]

Anybody brave enough to predict a run to 11,000 on the Dow today, besides me. Up already to 10,988 and up 96 Dow points - early in the day. So many would prefer to see a 1500 hour roll over that has been so common of late, but perhaps not today. This could eventually end up being a sneaky break out kind of day - whew. I am so ready. Bring on the shorts and let'em bleed.

Dennis

The DOW is breaking out alone. The SPX, IWM, and COMPQ are still trading under their respective downtrend lines. Today is a perfect day because there is no bad news (oil down, consumer spending strong). But just wait until the headlines attempt to decipher Bernankespeak for the first time as Fed Chief. Any whiff of being hawkish on inflation will send the markets whipsawing right back through today's gains. If the SPX, IWM and COMPQ break their downtrends on volume, then the opportunity to be long in CSI is ripe. Looking to buy puts before the close.

 

[Birchtree]

Dow transports

Currently placing a new all-time high on the Dow Transports at 4383 - previous high was 4367.

NYSE composite next to go for all-time new highs.

 

[Wheels]

Whenever I am out of stocks for any length of time, I find myself frequently saying "Just one more down day and I am back in". One of 2 things usually happens. either I can't get to a computer before noon or more commonly, the market goes up for a couple of days. Well, here we are again. If tomorrow is looking like a down day, I will be back in Wednesday. If the market shoots up a couple of hundred points tomorrow, you know who you can thank.

Dave
<><

You are all very welcome. I wish I had jumped back in yesterday. Obviously because today is way up but also I think stocks will follow through tomorrow after Bernanke speaks. He might be a little hawkish but everybody already knows the Fed is going to raise 2 or 3 more times. That's why we've been correcting a little and now it's already priced in. At the very least I wish I had jumped into the I for tomorrow. It'll probably play a little catch up.

Dave
<><

 

[Birchtree]

Dow Theory set up

Spaf,

Do you see what's going on here today - possible for a buy confirmation.

Dennis

 

[Wizard]

This rally would make sense on the great retail sales report IF the savings rate was not negative.

When the DOW leads, stocks will bleed.

 

[Wizard]

Yeap, all ready seeing the "smart money" starting to bail.

Good luck tomorrow.

 

[Rod]

Yeap, all ready seeing the "smart money" starting to bail.

Good luck tomorrow.

Where do you see that at, Wiz.

Wanna learn

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

Oil down $10 since feb 1, broke $60 today, @ 59.4 now..gotta have a positive impact on the market??..has support at 58, breaks that and nothing till 51

 

[Fivetears]

An exchange...

Yeap, all ready seeing the "smart money" starting to bail.

Good luck tomorrow.

How about showin' us all that Crystal Ball of yours Mr. Wizard, and put away that pink sucker?

 

[Birchtree]

Fivespeed

Fivetears,

It's not a pink sucker - it's a push botton starter for a Toyota.