Tsunami's Account Talk

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spot gold. that's what I wanted to see. Read chatter about a top gold coinciding/indicating a bottom in equities.
Will be waiting to see what the weekend magicians' rabbit looks like this time!
I'm with you about the S&P @ 1110 and a dip to test that low close. To me this cycle on the S&P looks alot like the one in Jan-Feb earlier this year.
 
To me this cycle on the S&P looks alot like the one in Jan-Feb earlier this year.
Click to expand...
Looks that way on the chart...only difference this time is Europe is crumbling and the dollar is rocketing up. This is fine by Bernanke as it keeps people scared and in our bonds. They will happily sacrifice the STOCK MARKET to keep the COUNTRY afloat!
 
Oh goodness what have I done...S&P is approaching my target of 1110-1115 so I took the plunge back in at the close today. Hope I'm not catching a knife. I noticed almost nobody getting in today, hoping that's a contrary indicator that it's nearing a low, but it could head lower to retest or even exceed that 5/6 low.
 
yikes!
Well, best of luck-
Here's what the Gold buggers have to say:
http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20100517_technical.html

None Yet, But Here Are Some Early Technical Clues of a Market Top in Gold
By Jim Wyckoff
17 May 2010, 10:00 a.m.
Comex nearby gold futures late last week pushed to a new all-time record high of $1,249.70 an ounce. The fact gold futures prices have pushed to a new all-time high suggests much bigger upside targets in the coming weeks and months.
There are not yet any early near-term technical clues to suggest a market top is close at hand in the gold market. The path of least resistance for gold will remains sideways to higher until some technical warning flags are raised.
Here are some early near-term technical warning signals that, if they occur, should put the gold market bulls on high alert that at least a near-term market top is in place in the precious yellow metal:
-- the near-term price uptrend on the daily bar chart being negated. If gold prices drop significantly below the last "reaction low" on the daily bar chart, that would negate the near-term price uptrend in gold. At present, the last reaction low on the daily bar chart in June gold futures is the May low of $1,156.20. A reaction low is a downside price correction that occurs in an uptrending market. Uptrend lines on the bar charts are drawn from the reaction lows.
-- A bearish "key reversal" down on the daily bar chart. A key reversal down would occur when gold scores a new record high and then during the same trading session backs way off the high to close lower and near the session low. Prices that day would also have to produce a high that was higher and low that was lower than the previous session's trading range.
-- A bearish buying "exhaustion tail" on the daily chart. This occurs when a market makes a new spike high on the daily chart and then backs way off that high to close nearer the session low--creating what appears to be a tail on the daily chart. What occurs is buyers become exhausted at the higher price levels and then prices back way off the high.
-- A bearish diamond pattern on the daily bar chart. This chart formation occurs when higher price volatility at higher price levels form a diamond pattern on the chart. A bearish broadening pattern (which looks like a reverse triangle pattern on the chart) is also a bearish chart pattern that occurs from higher price volatility at higher price levels.
-- a bearish weekly low close on Friday. Weekly high or low closes in a market on the last trading day of the week are technically significant.
-- a very large one-day spike down in price. A big sell off that occurs, producing a big spike down in prices on the daily chart would inflict near-term chart damage.
 
Tsunami said:
Oh goodness what have I done...S&P is approaching my target of 1110-1115 so I took the plunge back in at the close today. Hope I'm not catching a knife. I noticed almost nobody getting in today, hoping that's a contrary indicator that it's nearing a low, but it could head lower to retest or even exceed that 5/6 low.
Click to expand...


Tsunami,

I might be lucky. My 'plunge' is limited to <1% moves:p

Like Scipio lunging for his gun. Felt lucky. I think 6 shots fired...

But, in my case Dirty Harry (the Market) is popping spit wads at me:nuts:
 
As Coolhand pointed out fear is really thick this morning, enough to produce some short covering if it can gain some momentum right here. Tuesday's low in the S&P was 1114.96. This morning's low 1114.97. Nice double bottom, if it can hold. Problem is it might only rally up to slightly exceed yesterday morning's high, to around 1150ish. Much above that then I think the 1180's are doable if it's forming a big sideways triangle.

At least the dollar is producing a tailwind today for once. Looks like it's finished 5 waves up and is ready to come down some.

Edit: wow, OK, here's that important 1110 area...then comes the 200dma line in the sand.
 
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Tsunami said:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bull-market-camp-loses-a-top-performer-2010-05-19?siteid=YAHOOB

If the pros are throwing in the towel, seems like we should get a decent bounce soon. The Elliott wavers are counting waves such that the next fall, if it comes, would be a wave 3 of wave 3 down, the first big plunge of many to come for several years. I'm guessing/hoping they're wrong...but this rally from 1100 is looking too choppy so far to be a lasting low.
Click to expand...

In retrospect, that "mysterious" meltdown a couple weeks ago is certainly looking like a big clue of market action to come.
 
Warrenlm said:
You bailed this morning. Are you anticipating a significant further decline before a level and bounce?
Click to expand...

Yes, I reached the point of maximum pain I guess and the most pessimistic Elliott wave counts are proving to be correct. Huge bounces will come but will be unpredictable..... but now that I'm out I'm sure there will be a big bounce starting tomorrow. :( That 2/5 low around 1050 will be key. If that's broken there could be another panic selloff.

It's looking very likely that the top I expected in August came early. http://www.ttheoryfoundation.org/t-theory-calculations.html Basically I now expect 4 to 6 years of stair stepping lower at this point, somewhere from 62% minimum to 95% maximum downside in stock indexes. The economic numbers will follow the market down after a few months lag. Sure wish I hadn't gotten back in Monday, obviously. I'll still try to grab some of the bounces, with the first one perhaps starting around 6/20 and lasting into August if there's any truth to the T-Theory predictions... on the bright side for me, I'm doing well in non-TSP accounts, and gold is still looking like a relatively safe haven. Back in January when I started posting I became quickly known as one of the gloomier guys here. I feel like I knew what was coming (and lies ahead), but got caught in the first few weeks of the tsunami anyway. Oh well, the principle of "he who loses least, wins" now applies going forward, and in the longer run getting out now may look genious.
 
I'm not ruling out another last stage burn-down-the-barn stimulus before our leaders get voted off the island in November. Problem is, the world is finally realizing that stimulus doesn't really matter. 4-6 years of stair stepping? I'm sure those steps will be just enough to keep bulls on board the whole way down.
 
The tsunami is here.

This wave count looks reasonable to me, except I'd change wave 4 "circle" to a triangle, so that wave 5 "circle" bottoms in June 2016 per Bob Prechter's free April 2010 Elliott Wave Theorist. Want to be a hero and try to time the rallies? Good luck. I might wait all the way to that wave (1) low....
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/S_WsnnSPfiI/AAAAAAAAFXY/ZQUPwklZ9aA/s1600/wlsh.png

http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/

Gold buying in China....one error in this video is that George Soros did not say that gold is in a bubble, he's saying that gold will be in a bubble. Big difference, it's just warming up, but I think it's vulnerable to a drop to as low as the $700's first if deflation gets bad enough.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SbUvvfJakfI

I have a daughter graduating from college in 3 weeks. She fits right into this bleak outlook, not even an interview yet....
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/employment/2010-05-19-jobs19_CV_N.htm

1274353108-9_4.png

 
Tsunami,

Watch out for the gloom. The doomers haven't proven their point. Every bull market has corrections.

I don't like what I see, but our economy is stronger than our politicians' ignorance. Soon there will be a buying time. Yummy!!!
 
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