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Tsunami's Account Talk
- Thread starter Tsunami
- Start date
fedgolfer
Well-known member
Yeah, trying to be a dip buyer with the IFT deadline sure is tricky.... but, fortunately that $tran kagaroo tail is often a catalyst for a continued trend (a very high success rate). But, man... logic says what smart money would buy in at these levels? Monthly charts show we still have lots of headroom until the upper bollingers.
Tsunami
Well-known member
A little history lesson I looked into as a result of this chart posted on Daneric's blog today....
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/S9IBeIX-DyI/AAAAAAAAE8E/_bvXR0zRHJ4/s1600/52.png
New 52-week highs haven't been this high since just before the October 1997 "Asian Contagian mini-crash"
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/historical/SP/1997/0/continuous.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_27,_1997_mini-crash
:worried:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/S9IBeIX-DyI/AAAAAAAAE8E/_bvXR0zRHJ4/s1600/52.png
New 52-week highs haven't been this high since just before the October 1997 "Asian Contagian mini-crash"
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/historical/SP/1997/0/continuous.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_27,_1997_mini-crash
:worried:
Tsunami
Well-known member
The Wednesday roundup:
"We have gone past the point of no return. There is a complete loss of confidence. The bond markets are in disintegration and it is getting worse every day." - Jacques Cailloux, chief Europe economist, Royal Bank of Scotland... 27 April 2010
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...-prevent-Southern-European-debt-collapse.html
Are Zimbabwe's problems spreading?
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/world-news/is-south-africa-turning-into-zimbabwe-1.1022908
Blocking gasoline imports into Iran, history says that means war....
http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary...ns-on-Iran-s-gasoline-imports-That-s-war-talk
I don't have a link, but a recent GAO report stated "roughly 93 cents of every dollar of federal revenue will be spent on the major entitlement programs and net interest costs by 2020." So in less than 10 years there will be no money left to pay our salaries. If you're worried, you can contribute toward paying off the national debt here: https://www.pay.gov/paygov/forms/formInstance.html?nc=1271991815942&agencyFormId=23779454
I'd rather buy a one-ounce gold Buffalo, they go on sale from the U.S. Mint or many dealers (I like apmex.com) tomorrow for the first time since December when they ran out of gold.
And for the peak oil non-believers, from a recent DOD report:
“by 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear; and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day" (page 31)
"A severe energy crunch is inevitable without a massive expansion of production and refining capacity.....such an economic slowdown would exacerbate other unresolved tensions, push fragile and failing states further down the path toward collapse...One should not forget that the Great Depression spawned a number of totalitarian regimes that sought economic prosperity for their nations by ruthless conquest." (page 30)
http://www.jfcom.mil/newslink/storyarchive/2010/JOE_2010_o.pdf
Looking for some positive news.....It took 9 years, but today's federal approval of the offshore wind farm in Massachusetts was a great step forward in securing America's energy needs for the future. We've recently had the tragic coal mining accident, and now the Three Mile Island of offshore oil drilling is going on in the Gulf of Mexico. These events just make it more critical to push ahead with alternatives even before the oil shortage crisis hits. I went to a local Home and Garden show last weekend and counted five booths with companies selling rooftop solar power systems. The times are a changin'!!
"We have gone past the point of no return. There is a complete loss of confidence. The bond markets are in disintegration and it is getting worse every day." - Jacques Cailloux, chief Europe economist, Royal Bank of Scotland... 27 April 2010
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...-prevent-Southern-European-debt-collapse.html
Are Zimbabwe's problems spreading?
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/world-news/is-south-africa-turning-into-zimbabwe-1.1022908
Blocking gasoline imports into Iran, history says that means war....
http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary...ns-on-Iran-s-gasoline-imports-That-s-war-talk
I don't have a link, but a recent GAO report stated "roughly 93 cents of every dollar of federal revenue will be spent on the major entitlement programs and net interest costs by 2020." So in less than 10 years there will be no money left to pay our salaries. If you're worried, you can contribute toward paying off the national debt here: https://www.pay.gov/paygov/forms/formInstance.html?nc=1271991815942&agencyFormId=23779454
I'd rather buy a one-ounce gold Buffalo, they go on sale from the U.S. Mint or many dealers (I like apmex.com) tomorrow for the first time since December when they ran out of gold.
And for the peak oil non-believers, from a recent DOD report:
“by 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear; and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day" (page 31)
"A severe energy crunch is inevitable without a massive expansion of production and refining capacity.....such an economic slowdown would exacerbate other unresolved tensions, push fragile and failing states further down the path toward collapse...One should not forget that the Great Depression spawned a number of totalitarian regimes that sought economic prosperity for their nations by ruthless conquest." (page 30)
http://www.jfcom.mil/newslink/storyarchive/2010/JOE_2010_o.pdf
Looking for some positive news.....It took 9 years, but today's federal approval of the offshore wind farm in Massachusetts was a great step forward in securing America's energy needs for the future. We've recently had the tragic coal mining accident, and now the Three Mile Island of offshore oil drilling is going on in the Gulf of Mexico. These events just make it more critical to push ahead with alternatives even before the oil shortage crisis hits. I went to a local Home and Garden show last weekend and counted five booths with companies selling rooftop solar power systems. The times are a changin'!!
Tsunami
Well-known member
My point was that the headlines all read something like this from Marketwatch:
"WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Houses in 20 major U.S. cities were worth more in February 2010 than in February 2009, the first time in more than three years that values had increased year-to-year, according to the Case-Shiller home price index released Tuesday by Standard & Poor's."
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/home-prices-show-year-over-year-gain-sp-2010-04-27
The media headlines portrays the news as all good, when in fact 19 of those 20 cities are now experiencing fallling prices again over the last one to six months. San Diego will likely follow LA (which has just turned down, though one month doesn't make a trend) soon. In my area we're now at four straight months of falling home prices. Even very affordable markets like Cleveland are falling again. So even as many talking heads on TV jabber about blue skies and no chance of a "double dip" recession, and the only worries seem to be about high inflation coming, some measures are showing that another round of asset deflation is already starting. I wonder if it will be contained mostly to real estate, stocks and commodities again this time, or if deflation spreads faster than the Fed can print money. We should know the answer by about a year from now. If the the only outcome choices of the debt crisis are deflation or high inflation, I'll take deflation, which hopefully won't whipsaw into a double whammy of hyperinflation later. There are a lot of variables in the mix and nobody knows what's ahead.
"WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Houses in 20 major U.S. cities were worth more in February 2010 than in February 2009, the first time in more than three years that values had increased year-to-year, according to the Case-Shiller home price index released Tuesday by Standard & Poor's."
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/home-prices-show-year-over-year-gain-sp-2010-04-27
The media headlines portrays the news as all good, when in fact 19 of those 20 cities are now experiencing fallling prices again over the last one to six months. San Diego will likely follow LA (which has just turned down, though one month doesn't make a trend) soon. In my area we're now at four straight months of falling home prices. Even very affordable markets like Cleveland are falling again. So even as many talking heads on TV jabber about blue skies and no chance of a "double dip" recession, and the only worries seem to be about high inflation coming, some measures are showing that another round of asset deflation is already starting. I wonder if it will be contained mostly to real estate, stocks and commodities again this time, or if deflation spreads faster than the Fed can print money. We should know the answer by about a year from now. If the the only outcome choices of the debt crisis are deflation or high inflation, I'll take deflation, which hopefully won't whipsaw into a double whammy of hyperinflation later. There are a lot of variables in the mix and nobody knows what's ahead.
Lobo
Member
Wow...Tsunami....such negative "news" makes one think a tsunami is on the way!!
"Due to a very dark financial outlook, the light at the end of the tunnel is no longer lit!"
Ha! However, I carry a spare battery, and will be sticking to a positive outlook.
I see many negative "things" going on around where I frequent, but I also see more positive "things" happening....so, my outlook, however "foolish", is definitely positive for the future.
It's a great time to be retired, and that may influence my attitude, who knows??
Good luck to you....and all our TSP friends!!
Lobo
"Due to a very dark financial outlook, the light at the end of the tunnel is no longer lit!"
Ha! However, I carry a spare battery, and will be sticking to a positive outlook.
I see many negative "things" going on around where I frequent, but I also see more positive "things" happening....so, my outlook, however "foolish", is definitely positive for the future.It's a great time to be retired, and that may influence my attitude, who knows??
Good luck to you....and all our TSP friends!!
Lobo
JimmyJoe
Member
http://finance.yahoo.com/focus-reti...ost-retirement-jobs?mod=fidelity-changingjobs
With all my respect for those working. I know it can be tough. Keep driving forward. One foot in front of the other.
For those retired like myself, when I view the attached yahoo link topic about jobs a person can do while retired, not one of the jobs mentioned could be that of being your own stock analyst for your money you've earned in the TSP during your working years. Now that's what I call working! Thanks to all TSPtalk members.:toung:
With all my respect for those working. I know it can be tough. Keep driving forward. One foot in front of the other.
For those retired like myself, when I view the attached yahoo link topic about jobs a person can do while retired, not one of the jobs mentioned could be that of being your own stock analyst for your money you've earned in the TSP during your working years. Now that's what I call working! Thanks to all TSPtalk members.:toung:
Tsunami
Well-known member
Thanks JimmyJoe....I plan to keep investing/money management high on my list of "jobs"/hobbies after retirement. In fact my real job is already getting in the way of all the reading I'd like to do...six more years, tick tick tick....
Hmmm, looks like the S&P has already exceeded the usual maximum of 61.8% for a rally, the bears must be scratching their heads about now.
Hmmm, looks like the S&P has already exceeded the usual maximum of 61.8% for a rally, the bears must be scratching their heads about now.
Lobo
Member
Exactly! I've told a number of folks that ask about working after retirement that my part time job is learning, and earning, with my TSP account! You are your own boss, you mostly pick your times to work, and do that at home, etc. I don't make big bucks, but, in 22 months of retirement, I've increased my TSP account by ~50k. Like Birch says...tax free until I choose to spend it! Ya gotta love it!
My prayer for all you folks still working is that you live long enough, and stay healthy enough, to enjoy retirement....you've earned it!!! Take it the first chance you can, learn to live on less, and enjoy life the last few years you have.....it's a blast!!
Good Luck to ALL!!
Lobo
Tsunami
Well-known member
"the nature of CDS trading, which is unregulated, gives speculators a big incentive to push companies or countries toward bankruptcy. There’s an incentive to burn the house down in order to hit pay-dirt."
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/dorsch/2010/0428.html
The dominos are starting to fall. May 19th looms large for Greece. Germany sees the futility in bailing them out, so a default is looking likely. Will that start a chain reaction? It will soon be time to leave the water and head inland, the tsunami is coming.
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/dorsch/2010/0428.html
The dominos are starting to fall. May 19th looms large for Greece. Germany sees the futility in bailing them out, so a default is looking likely. Will that start a chain reaction? It will soon be time to leave the water and head inland, the tsunami is coming.
Bullitt
Well-known member
I love how these editorials are popping up everywhere defending these criminal contracts. I believe that every bit of Wall Street is affected by CDO bets or wagers and in turn it has trickled down into pension and insurance funds. Look at Warren Buffet who called them financial weapons of mass destruction; his Berkshire has a couple hundred billion in CDO's on the books.
The greater fool theory is at work and with the defaults, we've only just begun. Greek will default, but apparently that's bullish for the market. Greece's debt is at the same level as that of Lehman brothers when they went under.
The greater fool theory is at work and with the defaults, we've only just begun. Greek will default, but apparently that's bullish for the market. Greece's debt is at the same level as that of Lehman brothers when they went under.
Silverbird
Well-known member
Heh, betting on winning and losing. Even Las Vegas doesn't get to do that.
I think Germany wants to throw Greece out of the Eurozone, especially since Greece got in with cooked paperwork. But there's no provision for that in the EU, without tossing Greece out of the EU. Seems there should be a way to make that work, given that the UK is in the EU but not in the Zone.
I think Germany wants to throw Greece out of the Eurozone, especially since Greece got in with cooked paperwork. But there's no provision for that in the EU, without tossing Greece out of the EU. Seems there should be a way to make that work, given that the UK is in the EU but not in the Zone.
Tsunami
Well-known member
Whew, think I got everything tied down now, up to 87 mph wind gusts around Albuquerque suburbs today. Visible satellite photos this afternoon showed White Sands National Monument literally blowing in a long plume of white sand over 200 miles clear into Texas. Spring in New Mexico, so lovely.
Commercial real estate mortgage delinquincies are still steadily growing unabated, up to $51 billion last month...no green shoots here.
Commercial real estate mortgage delinquincies are still steadily growing unabated, up to $51 billion last month...no green shoots here.
Warrenlm
Well-known member
"Commercial real estate mortgage delinquincies are still steadily growing unabated, up to $51 billion last month...no green shoots here."
Can you think of a reason that, every time this subject is raised on CNBC and the like, it is described as the former concern that is not of concern now? Some actually talk confidently that this story was way overblown. Just seems intuitively obvious it should be setting off alarms.
Can you think of a reason that, every time this subject is raised on CNBC and the like, it is described as the former concern that is not of concern now? Some actually talk confidently that this story was way overblown. Just seems intuitively obvious it should be setting off alarms.
Warrenlm
Well-known member
On the subject of the Housing Index, CNBC talked about it this morning and included Prof. Shiller and a Realty guy.
Realty guy---Bottom may not be over even though signs are good. (but later comments show he is NY focused). High end doing well. (Hamptons and NYC). Smart money realizes the bottom is in (referring to NYC).
Prof Shiller (Case-Shiller Index) said many are convinced the bottom is in but he’s not sure. He sees possibility of weak performance in real estate. Being pressed a little in the context of the realty guy’s more positive feelings, he shot out that his unadjusted numbers have been declining for five months. Then he said a new bottom is possible. On the subject of the New Normal….high unemployment….it is generating bad feelings… Just like great depression. He recounted the trends during the years up to 1937 and then the drop at that point. He chuckled and said he did not mean to be so negative.
Realty guy---Bottom may not be over even though signs are good. (but later comments show he is NY focused). High end doing well. (Hamptons and NYC). Smart money realizes the bottom is in (referring to NYC).
Prof Shiller (Case-Shiller Index) said many are convinced the bottom is in but he’s not sure. He sees possibility of weak performance in real estate. Being pressed a little in the context of the realty guy’s more positive feelings, he shot out that his unadjusted numbers have been declining for five months. Then he said a new bottom is possible. On the subject of the New Normal….high unemployment….it is generating bad feelings… Just like great depression. He recounted the trends during the years up to 1937 and then the drop at that point. He chuckled and said he did not mean to be so negative.
Bullitt
Well-known member
It's too bad nobody can come up with a chart showing the bubble in derivatives. That's probably tucked away in a bomb proof safe at the major banks.
Tsunamai, in regards to the chart you mentioned about housing and somewhat in line with Warren's observations, WSJ had a great party article in the back few pages this week about how bad the housing recovery really is. They showed charts of various cities and charts with the values going back a few years. The majors are nowhere close to the highs and the unbelievable recovery has really been nothing more than stabilization of the collapse. Housing credits end today if I'm not mistaken.
As the world turns and euphoria sets in daily with investors waking up wondering how much their portfolio will grow today, China charts continue to look terrible. When times agree with a chartist, 'the charts never lie', but it's different this time because of the unprecedented stimulus our leaders have created. Lumber continues to rise yet houses aren't being built fast enough to sustain the climb.
Tsunamai, in regards to the chart you mentioned about housing and somewhat in line with Warren's observations, WSJ had a great party article in the back few pages this week about how bad the housing recovery really is. They showed charts of various cities and charts with the values going back a few years. The majors are nowhere close to the highs and the unbelievable recovery has really been nothing more than stabilization of the collapse. Housing credits end today if I'm not mistaken.
As the world turns and euphoria sets in daily with investors waking up wondering how much their portfolio will grow today, China charts continue to look terrible. When times agree with a chartist, 'the charts never lie', but it's different this time because of the unprecedented stimulus our leaders have created. Lumber continues to rise yet houses aren't being built fast enough to sustain the climb.
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